Video summary

📈 [LIVE] PRE-MARKET LIVE STREAM | The EXACT Rejection We Expected | FOMC DAY!

Main summary

Key takeaways

Finance

Finance-focused Summary (Levels + Rejection Around FOMC)

Market Theme

The presenter trades a “levels + rejection/failure” approach into major catalysts—especially FOMC (2:00 / 2:30). He repeatedly emphasizes:

  • Chop zones / “no-trade zones”
  • Taking directional trades only with clear break + retest confirmation (and rejection legibility)

Key Macro Events & Timeline

  • FOMC statement: 2:00
  • FOMC press conference: 2:30
  • Trump speaking at G7: “at open” (additional headline risk)
  • Retail sales (pre-market impact): 0.9 vs 0.5 (higher than expected), described as market-supportive

Core idea: major news windows create chop/no-trade conditions, so entries require higher-quality confirmation.

Instruments / Tick ers Mentioned

Index Futures & ETFs (level references)

  • Nasdaq 100 futures (via QQQ levels)
  • S&P 500 futures (via ES levels)
  • SPY
  • QQQ
  • IWM
  • SMH
  • DRAM / memory charts (sector risk filter)

Equities / Companies

  • HOOD
  • AAPL, TSLA, NVDA, AMD, MU
  • AVGO, TSM, MRVL, ARM
  • SNDK, INTC, AMZN, META
  • Google (Alphabet; ticker not stated)
  • DELL
  • CRWV, NBIS

Other Reference

  • Forex Factory economic calendar (used for event timing; no specific yields/FX levels provided)

Step-by-Step Trading Methodology

  1. Mark supply and demand zones Use prior highs/lows plus overnight/pre-market levels.

  2. Use break + failure / break + retest rejection

    • Avoid shorting the first breakdown wick/sweep.
    • Wait for clear legibility of rejection.
  3. Create chop / no-trade zones around major events
    • Especially around FOMC at 2:00.
  4. Only trade directional moves outside the chop zone
    • Continuation requires a break beyond the chop zone.
    • Inside the zone: expect mean reversion / ping-pong, not sustained trends.
  5. For single stocks: look for reclaim levels
    • Daily 20 SMA, prior highs, or all-time highs
    • Favor setups that show higher-low development

Key Numbers, Levels & Recommendations (By Market)

1) Nasdaq / QQQ (Futures + ETF Levels)

Major Levels

  • Demand/support (QQQ): 730
  • Supply / chop cap: 736–738
  • Gap fill reference: failure tied to not holding 730
  • Upside targets if reclaim/strength: 742, then 745
  • No-trade/chop zone: roughly 737–738 down to 730

Trading Logic / Stance

  • If QQQ stays above 730: expect support + bounce
  • If QQQ fails under 730 (and fails the gap level):
    • potential move toward Friday highs
    • also tied to daily 20 SMA and the ~724 area
  • Best idea (stated): “724 pullback long” if:
    • gap fills, and
    • demand appears at daily 20 / near Friday highs
  • Continuation concepts:
    • Short continuation: break below 730 for a gap-fill short
    • Long continuation: reclaim 738 toward 742/745

Nasdaq futures broader chop risk area

  • Approx. 30,400 to 30,565 (described as chop/reversion risk)

2) S&P 500 / ES (and SPY)

ES Levels

  • Overnight/pre-market rejection: 7608–7612
  • Support / downside pressure if broken: 7580–7585
  • Targets if 7580 breaks: 7560–7550 (gap-related discussion)
  • If buyers reclaim 7608–7612: move toward 7630

Warning (execution)

  • Don’t front-run—avoid trying to short without break + retest rejection
  • Watch for being trapped by breakdown sweeps

SPY Levels

  • Breakdown trigger: below 749.50–750
  • If rejected and breakdown continues:
    • potential gap-fill downside toward ~745–744
    • also tied to daily 20 / Friday highs

3) Nasdaq 100 Futures (Narrative Triggers)

  • Emphasis on a rejection point above a prior level that became hard to reclaim
  • Chop/focus band (as stated): 565–628

Bullish Pathway (today)

  • Hold ~628
  • Reclaim above 628 and hold
  • Then look to long back toward the 755–800 area (~“150 points” upside mentioned)

Bearish Pathway (today)

  • Break below ~381 (subtitles garbled, but this is the next trigger described)
  • Then trade toward 282,250 (also appears garbled)

Biggest caution (as stated)

  • Don’t go bearish if Friday highs hold
  • He frames “beginning of the end” as failure below Friday highs
  • If it occurs: expect downside back toward 30,020 and near 29,760–29,800 (these appear aligned with ES/NQ-style levels; subtitles likely garbled)

4) IWM (Russell 2000)

  • Bullish requirement: reclaim 293.00–293.15 (after pullback to ~291)
  • Bearish alternative: break below implies downside toward daily 20 SMA
  • Preference: watch for reclaim for longs

5) SMH (Semiconductors ETF)

Key Stance

  • He implies: don’t short if SMH is above prior day lows / key retest levels.
  • Caution: if SMH is above previous day lows, prefer not to short.

Bearish triggers/targets (conceptual)

  • If SMH fails: consider shorts toward daily 20
  • Mentions:
    • A prior short thesis below 639.25 that worked via a gap fill (“short setup is over now”)
    • Another bearish trigger: breaking below yesterday’s lows with a possible target around 259.9 / daily 20
  • Mentions possible higher rejections near 633–630 toward yesterday’s lows

Sector “Risk Filter”: Memory / DRAM

  • DRAM described as strong, holding/claiming all-time highs
  • Warning: if DRAM is holding all-time highs, don’t fight it / don’t short the market
  • Levels referenced:
    • all-time highs around 69.50–70
    • reclaim/hold area around ~70 (subtitles include noisy “7069.50/70”-style wording)
    • “72728” all-time high mentioned (likely 72.728 or 72.7x; subtitles appear noisy)

If DRAM breaks

  • If DRAM breaks below the all-time-high area, he would consider rejection/downside risk for the broader tape.

Individual Equities: Watch Levels & Tactics

HOOD (Robinhood)

  • He says he locked profits and is out of the trade
  • Possible reload zones:
    • 94, then 88
  • Mentions: “102 daily 200 was our target” (target reached)

Apple (AAPL)

  • Took profits during a squeeze move
  • Current idea:
    • Must hold: 297–298
    • Higher low: described as “fantastic”
    • Upside target: 302

Tesla (TSLA)

  • Not interested; described as a “show” with a tight range and risk of getting trapped.
  • No specific numeric levels provided.

Nvidia (NVDA)

  • “Not interested” overall, but notes:
    • Watch zone: 206–207
    • If strength holds: possible move toward 210
    • Must hold: 206–207

AMD

  • Bullish trigger:
    • Get back above 530
    • Reclaim Monday’s lows around 527–530
  • He prefers reclaim-based aggression (not interested inside the channel)

Micron (MU)

  • Wait for a tight hold:
    • 10.36–10.40
  • Wants a break + retest long from that zone
  • Cautious: avoid being long into MU supply without all-time-high reclaim confirmation

Broadcom (AVGO)

  • Mentions it’s holding his swing trade
  • General patience: stay long while above major areas (above the 100, above the 200)
  • No clean exact level provided.

MRVL

  • References “perfect supply rejection”
  • Support/structure zone:
    • 272–275 (key demand / higher-low region)
  • If structure forms: “matter of time,” biased higher

ARM

  • Strong bullish tone
  • Must hold around 385–387 (otherwise weakens)
  • If it holds and breaks above all-time highs: upside expected
  • Notes supply rejections above but emphasizes consolidation above the channel

SNDK

  • Highlights alignment of:
    • Friday highs
    • Monday lows
    • pre-market low
  • No clean numeric trigger given.

Intel (INTC)

  • “Daily 20 SMA pullback” setup
  • Watch 114–115 for daily-20 pullback + break/retest structure

Amazon (AMZN)

  • Looks for a potential higher low
  • Reference highs/lows: 244–245

Meta (META)

  • Needs to break and reclaim daily 20
  • Warning: don’t get “zucked” at daily 20 (it failed recently and dropped hard)

Google (Alphabet)

  • Same as META: must reclaim daily 20

Dell (DELL)

  • Wants an “explosive move”
  • Focus on holding 400–402
  • If it holds: move toward 426–430
  • Emphasizes behavior at prior weekly lows

CRWV

  • Best trade ideas:
    • Best: retest long at 110–111
    • Alternative:
      • if pullback to daily 50 holds
      • if holds above 117: could extend to 122

NBIS

  • He references owning shares purchased at $230 last week
  • Current trade idea:
    • retest long around 260
  • Upside supply around 275 is described as heavy resistance

Cautions / Risk Notes

  • No explicit “not financial advice” disclaimer appears in the subtitles.
  • Repeated warnings include:
    • Don’t front-run—wait for break + retest rejection
    • Avoid shorts that can get swept/trapped
    • Expect chop/no-trade into FOMC (2:00)
    • Don’t fight sector leadership—e.g., DRAM/memory holding highs suggests not shorting broadly
    • Maintain patience/self-control; don’t assume trend continuation inside chop zones

Presenters / Sources

  • Presenter/host: referred to by chat nicknames (no explicit legal name shown)
  • Economic calendar source: Forex Factory

Original video