Top 6 Stocks I am buying in 2026 for Long-Term Wealth | Akshat Shrivastava

Summary of Finance-Specific Content from

“Top 6 Stocks I am buying in 2026 for Long-Term Wealth | Akshat Shrivastava”

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Stocks Covered

• Amazon (AMZN)
• IDFC First Bank (Indian stock)
• IEX (Indian Energy Exchange)
• Netflix (NFLX)
• PVR (Indian cinema chain)
• Melly (MercadoLibre - Latin American e-commerce & fintech)

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Key Insights & Analysis

1. Amazon (AMZN)

• Position: Bullish for 2026; invested $200,000+ in portfolio.

• Technical Analysis: Stock has been trading within a channel since 2023 after the 2022 dip. Identified a 15-16% gain opportunity based purely on technicals.

• Fundamental Thesis:

  • Lagged behind other “Magnificent Seven” (MAG7) US tech stocks over the last 5 years due to heavy investments in low-margin e-commerce retail.
  • Past ROIC was low because of retail segment investments.
  • New investment cycle (2024-2025 onwards) focuses on AWS (Amazon Web Services), a high-margin business.
  • AWS growth expected to improve ROIC and profit margins, potentially leading to PE multiple expansion.
  • Stock price growth driven by two engines: EPS growth + PE multiple expansion.
• Financials:
  • Consistent revenue growth.
  • Gross profit margins trending upward.
  • ROIC improving as AWS scales.
  • Growth in AWS and advertising revenue (both high margin).
• Strategy: Continuously buying on dips; selling covered calls (30% out of the money) to generate extra income.
• Caution: No specific warnings, but emphasizes combining technical and fundamental analysis.

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2. IDFC First Bank (Indian Stock)

• Position: Bullish; holding and increasing allocation by shifting from HDFC Bank.
• Market Cap: Increased from ~₹50,000 Cr to ~₹73,000 Cr; potential to reach ₹100,000 Cr or more.
• Growth Thesis:
  • Indian private banking sector is large; IDFC First Bank is significantly smaller than top private banks (HDFC, ICICI, Axis).
  • Room for substantial market cap growth (potential 5x to 10x).
• Capital Infusion:
  • Warburg Pincus (private equity) invested ₹4,876 Cr.
  • PE funds typically target 10x returns over 10-15 years, indicating strong growth potential.
• Macro Context:
  • Banking industry is highly regulated; competition stabilized.
  • IDFC First Bank is a market share taker, not giver.
  • Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) are broadly exiting India, but increasing holdings in IDFC First Bank.
• Investment Approach: Macro thesis-driven, not focused on traditional financial ratios like NIM.
• Risk: Banking is regulated; volatility expected but long-term growth favored.

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3. IEX (Indian Energy Exchange)

• Position: Fundamental bet, not technical.
• Business Model: Provides trading infrastructure for electricity contracts between power distribution companies and state discoms.

• Market Event: 40% stock dip due to “market decoupling” — government allowing three power exchanges (IEX, PXIL, Hindustan Power Exchange) to compete to avoid monopoly.

• Growth Thesis:

  • Indian renewable and green energy sectors growing at ~15% CAGR.
  • Electricity trading volume grew 19% in first 9 months of FY2025.
  • Market large enough to sustain three players.
• Investment Advice: Build positions sensibly during drawdowns; understand fundamental reasons behind dips.
• Risk: Increased competition and regulatory changes impacting business model.

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4. Netflix (NFLX)

• Position: Bullish; currently buying at discounted prices.
• Financials:
  • 21% revenue growth, impressive for a company of Netflix’s size.
  • ROIC improving (~20.7%).
  • Subscriber base growing faster than content production costs, improving per-subscriber economics.
• Growth Drivers:
  • AI to reduce content production costs and improve user engagement/targeted ads.
  • Warner Brothers acquisition pending, adding scale but also significant debt.
• Risks:
  • Acquisition introduces short-term pain (decreased ROIC, compressed margins).
  • Stock price dropped ~33-34% due to acquisition concerns; currently trading around $89 (down from ~$135 peak).
• Long-term Outlook: Acquisition expected to stabilize in 2-3 years; Netflix remains a dominant entertainment brand with a strong moat.
• Technical: Psychological support around $100; currently offers a good margin of safety.
• Recommendation: Build positions in 2026; potential breakout in 2027.

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5. PVR (Indian Cinema Chain)

• Position: Bullish; tracking a K-shaped recovery in India.
• Economic Context:
  • Upper-income groups’ spending power recovering strongly.
  • Luxury and entertainment sectors growing despite challenges for FMCG and mass-market products.
• Financials:
  • Record revenues in 2024 and expected growth in 2025.
  • Operating profits improving; net profits turning less negative (from -123 to -4).
  • Debt-to-equity at 1.05, but assets (prime real estate, cinema infrastructure) are productive.
• Growth Thesis:
  • Strong demand for in-person entertainment persists.
  • Market cap still small; potential for PE expansion and EPS growth.
• Risk: Industry consolidation and past pandemic-related disruptions; recovery is well underway.

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6. Melly (MercadoLibre)

• Position: Bullish; $200,000+ invested.
• Business Model:
  • Latin America’s leading e-commerce platform, akin to Amazon.
  • Operations in Brazil, Argentina, Mexico, etc.
  • Also operates fintech/neo bank business and growing ad revenue segment.
• Growth Metrics:
  • Commerce segment growth mid-to-high teens (~15%).
  • Fintech segment growing at 37%-77% YoY.
  • Operating margins improving.
• Technical: Stock stuck in a range for several years; potential breakout similar to Amazon’s pattern.
• Risks:
  • Macroeconomic risks in Latin America (inflation, political instability).
  • Argentina’s economy revamp under President Javier Milei is a positive sign.
• Investment Thesis: Provides international diversification and a “US hedge” via exposure to Latin America.
• Recommendation: Good portfolio diversification; long-term growth potential.

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Methodology / Framework Highlighted

• Combine technical analysis (chart patterns, channels, support/resistance) with fundamental analysis (revenue growth, ROIC, profit margins, macro trends).
• Focus on ROIC and PE expansion as dual drivers of stock price appreciation.
• Understand industry-specific macro trends (e.g., renewable energy growth for IEX, banking regulation for IDFC First Bank).
• Consider capital infusion and institutional investor interest as signals for growth potential.
• Use covered calls to generate income on strong conviction stocks (example: Amazon).
• Track market share dynamics and regulatory changes impacting business models.
• Evaluate acquisition impacts on ROIC and margins for companies like Netflix and PVR.
• Assess geopolitical and macroeconomic risks when investing in emerging markets (e.g., Melly).

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Key Numbers & Timelines

• Amazon: AWS investment cycle from 2024-2025; 15-16% technical gain opportunity.
• IDFC First Bank: Market cap from ₹50,000 Cr to ₹73,000 Cr; potential to reach ₹100,000 Cr+.
• IEX: 40% stock dip in 2025 due to market decoupling; electricity volume growth 19% in 9 months FY25.
• Netflix: 21% revenue growth; stock down 33-34% from peak; trading at $89; psychological level $100.
• PVR: Debt to equity 1.05; net profit improving from -123 to -4; record revenues 2024-25.
• Melly: Commerce growth ~15%; fintech growth 37%-77%; stock range-bound with potential breakout.

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Disclaimers

This summary is not financial advice; content is educational and based on personal research. Investing involves risks; views may change as markets evolve. Readers are encouraged to watch with an educational lens, not as direct stock recommendations.

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Presenter / Source

Akshat Shrivastava

• Registered finance influencer.
• MBA graduate from a top program.
• Experience teaching finance and investing.
• Runs a global investing community with live portfolio builds and data-driven research.
• Provides weekly updates on tracked stocks.

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End of Summary