Константин Бондаренко | Пророчество Коломойского*: «Наслаждайтесь войной — мир будет хуже»

Summary

In an interview with host Maxim Nevenchannyy, political scientist Konstantin Bondarenko argues that ending the war could create severe political and economic risks for Ukraine’s leadership. He interprets Igor Kolomoisky’s remarks about a possible “1917” as reflecting fears shared within Volodymyr Zelensky’s circle, rather than evidence of a real break between Kolomoisky and Zelensky.

Bondarenko’s central argument is that Ukraine’s current system is organized around wartime conditions. He says a ceasefire would bring veterans home with expectations of compensation and social support, while the state lacks the resources to meet those demands. He also predicts that businesses and networks profiting from weapons procurement, mobilization, and related activities would lose influence. In his view, Zelensky would also lose the international attention and prestige he receives as a wartime leader. Bondarenko warns that these pressures could lead to unrest and political upheaval, invoking Ukraine’s turbulent history after 1917.

He describes Ukraine’s economic outlook as bleak, citing lost industrial and agricultural capacity, damaged energy infrastructure, displacement, population decline, and unemployment. He repeats a figure of 150 hryvnia to the dollar as an estimate of the currency’s “real” rate, attributing it to Kolomoisky and other economists. Bondarenko also says that, in the absence of a workable strategy, Ukraine is effectively relying on waiting for Putin’s death and Russia’s possible fragmentation.

The discussion considers whether a Ukrainian “peace party” is emerging. Bondarenko says public fatigue with the war appears significant, but questions the sincerity of politicians who have recently called for peace. He suggests that their votes on extending martial law will be a better test.

Bondarenko argues that pressure on Zelensky is increasing and outlines two possible ways he could be replaced: a parliament-led interim government of national unity or a military junta. In his view, either could eventually negotiate, and military leaders may be more willing to reach terms because of their direct experience of war.

On the United States, Bondarenko says Trump has incentives to secure a pause or settlement that he can present as a diplomatic success and potentially use to justify easing sanctions and pursuing economic ties with Russia. He argues that Trump blames Zelensky partly to appeal to Americans focused on domestic costs, while European and Democratic Party connections support Zelensky. Bondarenko portrays Europe as a major potential loser in the wider conflict and says European governments therefore want Ukraine to keep fighting.

The interview also turns to France and the Middle East. Bondarenko presents competing, unconfirmed explanations for unrest in France: it could weaken Macron and benefit Marine Le Pen, or it could be used to justify emergency powers. He says Le Pen has spent years building political organization and support ahead of the 2027 election.

Regarding Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Yemen, Bondarenko considers their cooperation uncertain because of their differing interests. He also advances the view that regional instability benefits the United States by increasing Europe’s dependence on it, while acknowledging that the motives and eventual outcomes remain unclear.

Presenters and Contributors

• Maxim Nevenchannyy — presenter
• Konstantin Bondarenko — guest, historian and political scientist