Video summary

Stocks CRASHED 50% Last Time This Happened...

Main summary

Key takeaways

Finance

Market recap (finance-focused)

U.S. equities

  • Broadly green, with the S&P 500 up just shy of 1%.
  • The Nasdaq 100 is also higher and described as near all-time highs.

Sector leadership

  • Best-performing sector: XLK (Technology), driven by semiconductors/memory.
  • Semis/memory outperform industrials (+1.24%).
  • Software up +0.71%.

Stocks mentioned (performance)

  • Apple: +2.5%
  • Google: +1%
  • Meta: down (exact % not provided)
  • Amazon: down (exact % not provided)
  • Tesla: +1.69%
  • Microsoft: up; software/hardware generally strong

Rotation / cross-asset notes

  • Real estate, staples, utilities, financials were red, framed as rotation unwinding back toward tech/semi growth.
  • Small caps participated; growth outperformance emphasized.

Index/segment relative performance

  • Large-cap growth: +2.51%
  • Mid-cap and small-cap growth: also positive
  • Value: described as “taking it on the chin”

Valuation / “undervalued” claims

  • The host claims the U.S. market (mid/large/small caps) is about 8.1% undervalued currently.
  • Historical reference: ~14–15% undervalued around the earlier Iran escalation period (March–April).
  • Recommendation framing:
    • “Often a buy” within the 8–10–15% undervaluation area.
    • S&P 500 is described as about 3% off all-time highs, with expectations for stronger performance over 12+ months.

Macro drivers & rates/commodities context

Inflation pressure / labor market signals

  • Job openings: 7.59M vs consensus 7.3M (hotter labor signal → tighter labor implied)
  • Schiller Home Index: +1.1%
  • Chicago PMIs: below consensus
  • Conference Board Consumer Confidence: 91.2 (above prior, below consensus)

Oil / disinflation narrative

  • Morgan Stanley warning: potential oil glut and increased surplus risk, citing:
    • Strait of Hormuz flows returning faster than expected
    • Strong U.S. supply and weak Chinese demand
  • Morgan Stanley cut Q3 2026 Brent forecast by $15 to $75/barrel
  • Implication: lower energy prices could be disinflationary

Rates / volatility

  • Yields ticked up
  • Treasuries down about ~1% on the day
  • Volatility down to “a 16 handle” (implies VIX ~16)

Commodities & crypto

  • Crude oil: around $69.96 (“six handle”)
  • Natural gas: rallying (no % given)
  • Gold and silver: gained
  • Crypto lagged: Bitcoin and Ethereum down ~2%+ on the day

Technical / investment framework (explicit levels & scenarios)

Nasdaq 100 “flag” setup

  • Bull scenario: If Nasdaq 100 breaks above ~30,500 and closes above, the host expects a push toward all-time highs, potentially 31,000–32,000.
  • Bear scenario: If it fails and prints three lower highs, the host expects downside.

Seasonality & risk management plan

  • Expectation: July into August/September weakness
  • Stance: “buyers of dips, not sellers of weakness”
  • Dip target: near the 200-day moving average
  • “Measured move” estimate: about a 7% drop to support buying
  • Requested “buy-the-dip” support levels:
    • S&P 500: ~7,000
    • Nasdaq: ~26,000
    • Russell: ~2,700 (suggesting RSP ~205, possibly near 200 flat)
  • Notes: S&P 400 mid-cap and S&P 600 hitting all-time highs

Valuation/entry thesis at the dip

  • If the S&P 500 trades near the suggested ~7,000 support, host claims valuation would be about ~18x forward (or high-17s).
  • Belief: earnings growth supports buying at that valuation.

Portfolio construction & specific instrument mentions

Playing the AI/growth theme (ETF ideas)

  • Nasdaq 100
  • “Mags ETF” (Mag 7 ETF referenced; ticker not provided)
  • For Australia: Global X FANG+ ETF (ticker not provided)
  • DRAM ETF (ticker not given; framed as the “best way” to play hardware/DRAM)

Individual stocks (host’s personal picks)

  • Nvidia (allocation emphasized: “keep an allocation there”)
  • Google
  • Meta (noted you could swap Meta for Microsoft)

Semiconductor / early research plays

  • Cerebras (very high upside framed; valuation concern noted—see below)

Software names and options callouts

  • Host says they bought Zeta calls, with a target of:
    • January calls
    • Mentions $17.50 calls (pricing around $5.50)
    • Target: Zeta above prior highs, possibly around $30 “before the end of the year”
  • Other mentions:
    • AppLovin: up in excess of 3%
    • Reddit: advertising thesis
    • ServiceNow
    • Appoint / Appoint-AtPoint mention (exact name/ticker unclear; host says they have calls)

Specific company / AI semiconductor story (risk & catalysts)

Etched (chip/PCB inference + ultra-low voltage inference)

  • Claim: inference AI uses 75% less power without thermal/power throttling.
  • Funding/orders:
    • “raised $800” and has “$1B in orders” (instrument/wording not fully specified)
  • Competitive question: can it “tackle Nvidia?”
  • Constraint/risk: needs more work; not yet with a “major allocation to TSMC,” suggesting limited near-term share capture.

Cerebras (inference-first thesis)

  • Bull case: ~$9B orders by next year (highest bull case)
  • Valuation concern: “valuation… a bit much.”
  • Long-term market cap framing:
    • Current market cap ~ $60B
    • Potential $300–$500B in ~10 years
    • Potential return framed as “5 to 10X”
  • Key catalyst: shift from training to inference (more margin accretive)

Performance metrics & earnings/sentiment

Flow / advance-decline

  • Mentions ~3,000 advances and ~3,200 decliners
  • Nasdaq 100 inflows vs outflows in NYSE

Sentiment framework

  • Goldman Sachs U.S. Equity Sentiment Indicator
  • Claim: positioning is “officially in stretched positioning.”
  • Historical note: stretched periods often last months (examples include almost a year / 9 months)
  • Implication: dips may be bought quickly and with size due to strong earnings

Earnings growth expectations (key numbers)

  • Q1 2026 earnings growth: 27%
  • Excluding Amazon, Google, Nvidia “other income” items (host refers to gains from OpenAI/Anthropic investments), earnings growth still 17% vs consensus 13%
  • Next quarter: 22% expected earnings growth

Non-recession probability framing

  • Betting markets: 10% odds of recession
  • Contrasts with social media expectations

Upcoming data / timing

  • Nonfarm payrolls + unemployment rate referenced
  • Jobs-related releases described as tomorrow for openings and payrolls on Monday; unemployment on Thursday (timing details somewhat unclear in subtitles)

Earnings calendar (this week)

  • Nike (largest)
  • General Mills
  • Mentions FactSet
  • Host comment: “Mostly it for earnings season”

Disclosures / disclaimers

  • No explicit “not financial advice” disclaimer was mentioned in the subtitles.

Tickers / assets / sectors mentioned

  • Indexes/Sector ETFs/indices: S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Russell (RTY implied), XLK, S&P 400, S&P 600, RSP (Russell 2000 Selective ETF implied), DRAM ETF (unspecified)
  • Large-cap stocks: Apple, Google, Meta, Amazon, Tesla, Microsoft
  • Energy/utility mentions: Occidental (implied), Vistra Corporation
  • AI/semis/software mentioned: Nvidia, TSMC, Etched, Cerebras, Zeta, AppLovin, Reddit, ServiceNow, Appoint (unclear exact name)
  • Crypto: Bitcoin, Ethereum
  • Commodities: Brent crude (crude around $69.96), natural gas, gold, silver
  • Other ETFs: Global X FANG+ ETF (ticker not provided)

Presenters / sources

  • Presenter/host: Chase (host of the daily recap show)
  • Source cited: Morgan Stanley (oil glut / Brent forecast cut)
  • Source cited: Goldman Sachs (U.S. equity sentiment indicator)

Original video