"젠슨 황 한국 일정" 한마디로 정리하면? | 백인재 하나증권 영업부금융센터 부센터장 [더블 크루]

Market & Macro Catalysts

• The market is characterized as a sharp sell-off followed by a rebound (plunged one day, rebounded the next), but with ongoing uncertainty.
• CPI is scheduled for tomorrow, making it a key near-term driver of interest-rate direction.
• An IPO absorption risk is flagged for Friday, described as “SpaceX-like major player,” which could pressure liquidity/flows.
• The speaker’s takeaway: these factors are shifting expectations toward rates rising more likely than falling.
• Historical context is referenced:
  • Early March (war-related fear) → later rebound
  • The rebound is argued to have ultimately been led by stocks with solid earnings.

Earnings-Driven Recovery Thesis (Semiconductors)

The speaker expects a fear-driven rebound after major semiconductor earnings:

• Micron earnings (upcoming event)
• Samsung Electronics earnings in early July

Thesis: once these “major semiconductor companies” report, stocks may rebound as if the fear phase never occurred.

“Jensen Effect” & Korean Megacap AI/Semiconductor Beneficiaries

The segment focuses on Jensen Huang’s Korea visit and its perceived impact on Korean equities—particularly around AI/cloud and the semiconductor supply chain.

Companies mentioned as having direct relationships / meetings

• Naver
• SK Group
• LG Group
• Hyundai Motor
• Doosan Group
• Samsung Electronics

AI/cloud strategy emphasis (by company)

• Naver
  • Plan to build a global AI factory
  • The speaker notes Naver stock has been falling recently
• SK Group
  • Continues 4-year research/consulting with SK Telecom and Hynix (semiconductor context)
• SK hynix (Hynix)
  • Extended semiconductor research/consulting contract
• LG Group components
  • LG Electronics
  • LG CNS
  • LG Uplus
  • LG Innotek

Supply-chain “bonded relationship” narrative

The speaker argues NVIDIA’s ecosystem is effectively tied to suppliers such as:

• Samsung Electronics
• SK hynix
• Micron

Implying a durable supply-chain partnership.

Instruments / Tickers / Assets Mentioned

Equity indices / targets

• KOSPI (target 12,000 from Goldman Sachs)

Korean stocks / companies

• Naver
• SK Telecom
• SK hynix
• Samsung Electronics
• Hyundai Motor
• Doosan Group
• LG Electronics
• LG CNS
• LG Uplus
• LG Innotek
• (Visit/segment context also includes SK Group and related firms)

Memory/DRAM & NAND

• DRAM
• NAND

Key Numbers, Forecasts, and Performance Metrics

Short-term stock move (as described)

• Naver
  • >10% up yesterday
  • then -4% to -5% today
• The speaker frames this as a “Jensen effect” pattern: temporary upside followed by pullback.
• SK Telecom
  • described as slightly down “today,” but previously held up/rose.

Index level forecast

• KOSPI target: 12,000 (Goldman Sachs)

Note: subtitles reportedly include some date confusion; the content mentions it was submitted June 2 and discusses “next June,” which the speaker later clarifies/corrects.

Semiconductor price targets (examples cited)

• Samsung Electronics TP: 610,000 won
• SK hynix TP: 4,000,000 won
• Mentioned: a move to 4 million won after a prior 1 million won TP was raised earlier.

DRAM/NAND supply framing (forward years)

• The speaker claims DRAM and NAND supply shortages persist through 2027 and 2028 (based on an estimates table for 24/25/26 and 27/28).
• Implication: continued supply constraints support higher unit pricing / drive pricing and thus profitability.

FX note

• The exchange rate is described as dropping significantly, though no specific number is provided.

Frameworks / Methodology Used

1) Earnings + macro timing framework

• Wait for major semiconductor earnings:
  • Micron
  • Samsung (early July)
• Use the results to validate the “fear rebound” thesis.

2) Supply-demand + valuation support framework for memory

• Use DRAM/NAND supply-demand balance visuals:
  • “Downward” direction interpreted as supply shortage
• Conclude shortages persist into 2027–2028
• Link shortage → higher unit prices/profits for leading suppliers (Samsung, SK hynix, Micron).

3) Long-term contracting (“Cylical LTA”) framework

• LTA (Long-Term Agreement) is described as long-term supply contracting that:
  • smooths the cycle impact
  • supports a gradual, upward-sloping profit dynamic rather than sharp swings
• Conclusion: investors may not need to be overly afraid of current volatility if LTA effects dominate.

Recommendations / Cautions

• Caution / wait-and-see on Naver
  • For Naver holders, the speaker suggests waiting a bit longer due to:
    • ongoing/unfinished “order book” dynamics after Jensen’s arrival
    • potential additional catalysts as broker research resumes
• Risk-aware market stance
  • Even with semiconductors as a potential “V-shaped rebound” leader, the market remains volatile due to:
    • CPI (rate-direction uncertainty)
    • liquidity/flow effects from an upcoming IPO
• Constructive view
  • With supply shortages + LTA, the speaker argues investors can have more confidence holding through volatility.

Disclosures / Disclaimers (as provided)

• No explicit “not financial advice” disclaimer is clearly visible in the provided subtitles.
• The speaker does include a positioning: “I’m not an analyst,” and avoids claiming exhaustive fundamental coverage.

Presenter / Source Credits (mentioned)

• Deputy Center Director Baek In-jae (also referred to as Deputy Director Baek In-je)
• Other internal staff/guests referenced:
  • Research Fellow Yoon Jae-seong
  • Anchor Pyeon Da-song
  • Pro Jeong (appears as “Pro Jung” in subtitles)
• External references:
  • Goldman Sachs (for KOSPI 12,000 target context)
  • SK Securities (for semiconductor price targets context)
• Visual/production attributions in the segment:
  • Hwang Il-lin
  • Hwang Hye-rin