I Can't Believe It

Finance-focused Summary (Markets / Investing / Macro / Risk / Performance)

Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Setup (Bullish Confirmation)

• Weekly close above the 50-week moving average (50W MA)
  • Bitcoin closed the week above its 50W MA.
• Why this is considered bullish (with expected volatility)
  • The speaker argues that the combination of:
    • a “cheap” zone, plus
    • reclaiming the 50W MA
  • “Typically occurs early in bull markets,” though volatility is still expected.

Baseline / Prior Context

• Expected a bottom in the low 60s or high 50s, tied to:
  • 8-month consolidation in 2024
  • a level that was resistance for about a year in 2021
• Compared with 2022:
  • In this cycle, BTC needed about a ~50% drop to get near the 200-week moving average
  • In 2022, the drop was about ~65–70%

Scenario Cancellation / Risk Management

• The 50W MA is treated as the key “scenario cancellation level.”
• If BTC loses the 50W MA, the approach becomes more cautious.
• A “strong asset” should not fall back and lose the “76k level.”
  • The speaker adds it shouldn’t go below ~80k after this breakout (as an implied caution trigger).

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Chart Patterns & Trading Signals

False Breakouts as “Demand Proof”

• Inverted head-and-shoulders false breakout
  • Bulls recovered aggressively, even after a brief move below the 200W MA.
• Trading-range logic
  • If price breaks support and then returns into the range, it’s interpreted as:
    • evidence demand > supply
  • A range breakout with record short liquidations is interpreted as:
    • supply exhaustion / bears losing control

Confirmation-Momentum Approach

• Emphasis is on reacting to price evidence, not predicting macro/geopolitical outcomes (e.g., oil or Fed moves).

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Positioning, Sentiment, and Leverage (Pullback Risk)

Bitcoin ETF Flows as a Sentiment Indicator

• Reportedly $1.7B in 2 days into Bitcoin ETFs after BTC returned above the 50W MA.
• The speaker links this to FOMO and expects consolidation/corrections once sentiment gets overheated.

Liquidations as “Market Not Prepared” Evidence

• About $300M in liquidations during a minor pullback from ~86k to ~84k
• Record short liquidations during the move from ~60k to above ~70k, supporting the “surprise rally” narrative.

Explicit Caution

• Expect “a lot of volatility” because:
  • leveraged traders may be forced out, and
  • the market may not “let them ride free.”

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Seasonality / Historical Claims

Bitcoin Monthly Returns (as stated)

• September: ~+9%
• August: ~+25%
• Claim: Bitcoin has never had two consecutive “green” months in August and September in its history.
• Additional note: at the time of the talk, only one week remained in September, so the final monthly print could change.

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Base Case & “Black Swan” Framing

• Base case: mild bear market / bottoming in June
  • Not the deeper 60–70% decline and “buy the bottom in October” narrative.
• The speaker acknowledges black swans, but argues you can’t plan for them directly:
  • build around the most likely scenario
  • keep optionality (cash) and psychological readiness

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Portfolio Construction Method (Allocations Withheld)

Disclosure / Sharing Policy

• The speaker says they will not share specific portfolio moves or allocations publicly anymore.
• Previously shared trades are referenced only for context.

Framework (Step-by-Step)

1. Build a position aligned with the base case from analysis.
2. Maintain a cash reserve and be psychologically prepared to adjust if wrong.
3. If action continues confirming the base case, increase conviction (“double down”).
4. Use 50W MA and other referenced range levels as invalidation / cancellation points.
5. Prefer confirmation-based entries (e.g., after false breakout / reclaiming range) over “catching the bottom.”

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Macro Narrative Affecting Crypto (Dollar Liquidity + Rates)

Liquidity Backdrop (GLI)

• The speaker connects the outlook to a liquidity indicator (GLI), arguing liquidity is more favorable than in 2022.
• BTC is framed as benefiting from increasing liquidity / easing monetary policy scenarios.

Dollar / Global Liquidity Risk

• The dollar is slightly rising and is a near-term headwind for liquidity.
• Key resistance level cited for the dollar: 101
  • A clear close above 101 would pressure liquidity short-term.

Fed Path (Rates)

• As of the video: expected rate hikes in October and another hike in December
• Expectation for March hikes described as currently low/vague
• Rates are justified by stubborn inflation
  • Core PCE: still problematic (hawkish support)
  • Core CPI: trending the “right direction” (not expected to spike to new highs)
• Argument: the Fed can’t easily stop/reduce QE due to bond market yield pressure.

Growth and Labor

• Real U.S. GDP (Q3): 5.08%
• Unemployment falling below a 2-year moving average for the first time since July 2021 (labor resilience)
• Claims and initial claims remain “quite low”; nonfarm payrolls jumped slightly
• Fed has “little room” to pause if inflation rises and growth/labor remain resilient.

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Equities and Other Commodities Mentioned

S&P 500

• Said to be near an “expensive range,” around its 200-week moving average relationship.
• Mentions possible gap fill.

Gold

• Positioned “cheap” versus its 50-week moving average
• But continuation is desired only if it stays above the 50W MA threshold
• Bottom line: expects sideways consolidation before a potential next up move.

Oil / Energy

• Oil/geopolitics narratives are described as unreliable for timing trades.
• Mentions a crowd predicting $200 oil, but the speaker is not expecting $200 “immediately tomorrow.”
• Notes oil forming a lower high followed by decline (as an observation, not a plan).

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Crypto Ecosystem: Ethereum and Solana

Ethereum (ETH)

• ETH closed above 50W MA and above a 200-week high on the last weekly candle.
• Resistance is at the lower end of the range; reclaiming it may open toward the middle/upper range.
• “Step-by-step” watch:
  • move with BTC confirmation
  • monitor weekly closes
• Ethereum ETF flows
  • renewed inflows after a period of slower flow
  • earlier 2025 inflows were “crazy,” current flows are smaller → implies possible consolidation
• ETH/BTC ratio
  • holding above its 50W MA
  • treated as a key bullish condition for ETH

Solana (SOL)

• Similar to ETH: SOL is above its 50W and 200W moving averages
• Trying to break old range lows; next resistance is an old low (described as difficult)

Inflows and FOMO

• SOL saw about $50M in one day after BTC closed above the 50W MA
• Previously averaging about $3M/day, with some days up to $10M
• Key pair condition:
  • SOL/BTC above its 50W MA
  • at resistance of 2025 lows (noted as support for most of 2025 since late 2023)

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Altcoin Breadth

• Altcoin season index: 54 (market “waking up”)
• Russell 2000
  • small pullback
  • expectation: it forms a higher low and then bottoms to support altcoins following BTC

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Company / Corporate Crypto Exposure

Strategy (Bitcoin investment firm)

• Described as continuing to buy BTC and being “in the red” due to BTC price movement.
• Mentions Strategy acquired STRC and bought more BTC “this week.”
• Financial snapshot:
  • ~$6B cash/cash equivalents
  • Debt: $6.7B
  • ability to pay dividends for ~4 more years
• Argument: if the stock trades at a premium again, it can buy more BTC.
• Notes earlier cycle-bottom “drama” (expectations it would crash/sell heavily) that didn’t materialize.

Balance-sheet Behavior

• Companies holding bitcoin on balance sheets described as “quiet” for September (no specific data yet).

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Performance Metrics vs Benchmarks

• Relative to benchmarks:
  • Crypto vs Bitcoin benchmark: portfolio about ~25% behind year-over-year
  • Still a large gap vs S&P 500 and Nasdaq (framed as normal post-bear-market)
• “Bull market or not” remains tied to confirmation signals, step-by-step.

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Explicit Recommendations / Decision Rules

• Technical confirmation rule
  • Stay bullish while BTC remains above 50W MA
  • If BTC falls back below 50W MA and returns to the old range, treat it as a serious warning and adjust
• Entry timing philosophy
  • Prefer entries on confirmation (false breakout → back in range → close above mid-range/range) over trying to catch bottoms

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Disclosures / Disclaimers

• No explicit “not financial advice” line appears in the provided subtitles.
• Disclosures include:
  • stopping public disclosure of specific portfolio allocations/trades due to risk and privacy/security
  • full portfolio details available only in the Market Enjoyers closed community

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Instruments / Tickers / Assets Mentioned

Crypto

• Bitcoin (BTC)
• Ethereum (ETH)
• Solana (SOL)
• Stablecoins (general)
• STRC (mentioned as acquired by Strategy)

ETF Products

• Bitcoin ETFs (generic; no ticker provided)
• Ethereum ETF (generic; no ticker provided)

Equities / Indices

• S&P 500
• Nasdaq
• Russell 2000

Macro / FX

• U.S. Dollar (level discussion; key level: 101)

Commodities

• Oil (mentions $200)

Companies / Entities

• BlackRock
• Strategy (Bitcoin treasuries; ticker not provided)

Regulators / Bodies / Terms

• CFTC
• SEC
• FOMC

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Methodology / Step-by-Step Framework (as stated)

• Use price action + technical analysis as the primary driver (less reliance on external narratives like oil/Fed/geopolitics).
• Build a base case position, then:
  • keep cash reserve
  • be psychologically prepared to adjust
  • increase conviction only as the market continues confirming
• Use 50W MA as the scenario cancellation / trend validation level:
  • bullish while above
  • become more cautious if below
• Prefer confirmation-based entry:
  • false breakout → return to range → close above range/mid-range
  • avoid “catching a falling knife”

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Key Numbers / Levels Called Out

BTC

• Above 50-week moving average (weekly close confirmation)
• Expected bottom zone: low 60s / high 50s
• 2022 reference drop: ~65–70% vs ~50% this cycle to near 200W MA
• Pullback cited: ~86k to ~84k
• Earlier move: ~60k to above ~70k
• Risk levels: “76k level” and ~80k
• Liquidations proxies:
  • ~$300M liquidations during minor pullback
  • “record short liquidations” during earlier rally

ETF Flows

• $1.7B in 2 days into Bitcoin ETFs
• SOL inflow example: about $50M in one day

Seasonality

• August: ~+25%
• September: ~+9% (with 1 week remaining at the time)

Dollar

• Key level: 101

Fed / Macro

• Q3 real GDP forecast: 5.08%
• Expected hikes: October, December
• Rate increment described as 25 bps
• Fiscal deficit note: 2026 deficit ~ $1.965T

Strategy Balance Sheet

• ~$6B cash/cash equivalents
• Debt: $6.7B
• Dividend coverage: ~4 years

Oil

• “$200 oil” predictions mentioned; speaker says not expecting $200 immediately tomorrow

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Presenters / Sources Mentioned

• Presenter/host: YouTube channel owner/host (name not provided in subtitles)
• Referenced entities/topics:
  • Kevin Warsh
  • CFTC
  • SEC
  • BlackRock
  • Market Enjoyers (closed community; also mentions “Enjoyer OS” and “Founders tariff”)
  • Strategy
  • FOMC and Congress
  • Fear & Greed Index (used conceptually)