If You Missed Palantir in 2023, These 4 Stocks Are Spring-Loaded

Summary

The presenter uses a “compressed spring” analogy: a stock may stall or decline while its underlying business strengthens, then rise when a specific obstacle clears. He says the timing cannot be predicted and uses a mix of fundamental and technical signals. His approach includes a personal “signal ladder” for potential entry points, a separate system to assess whether to buy, and dollar-cost averaging rather than trying to identify the exact bottom.

Palantir is the example. The presenter says a $10,000 investment at the beginning of 2023 would be worth about $310,000 today, despite five declines of at least 25% and two declines of more than 40%. He argues that buying in portions and holding can help investors avoid being shaken out during volatility.

Stocks and Investment Cases

Amazon (AMZN) / AWS

• AWS revenue grew 37% year over year to about $42 billion per quarter, its fastest growth in 4.5 years. The presenter says AWS capacity will remain insufficient to meet demand in 2026, potentially continuing into 2027.
• Amazon expects to spend about $220 billion this year, largely on data centers. Free cash flow has fallen from tens of billions annually to roughly negative $8 billion as a result. The proposed catalyst is data centers becoming operational and generating revenue.
• The presenter says AWS’s growth recovery after a slowdown in 2023 preceded a roughly 70% stock gain over the following 18 months.
• For valuation, he excludes about $80 billion of paper gains on Amazon’s Anthropic stake and cites a 31 P/E and a PEG ratio slightly above 1. He describes the shares as fairly priced for expected growth, though not especially cheap by the PEG measure.
• Among 32 large funds he tracks, 15 increased and 17 reduced their positions in the prior quarter; overall holdings fell about 9%. The stock was about 5% above its 200-day moving average and below its 50-day average. His signal system indicated a buy zone, but he thought the stock might need to fall further.
• He says he does not personally buy more Amazon because he already holds the maximum amount he wants, including shares received through former-employer compensation.

Broadcom (AVGO)

• Broadcom’s AI-chip sales grew about 220% year over year, to nearly $17 billion in one quarter. The presenter cites a forecast of approximately $115 billion in AI revenue in 2027, or about double the prior level, and roughly $179 billion in non-cancelable orders.
• He says profits are up about 43% this year while the stock is up only 4%, and cites a PEG ratio around 0.5.
• Risks include customer concentration: Broadcom’s five largest customers account for more than half of sales. The presenter says about $120 billion of orders came from one large contract in a quarter and expects Anthropic to be the largest buyer next year.
• Broadcom has agreed to lend Anthropic up to $42 billion and guarantee up to $29 billion in data-center rack rent, creating exposure if Anthropic cannot pay.
• Broadcom’s chips are manufactured by TSMC. The presenter points to TSMC’s earnings on October 15 as a possible indicator of whether AI demand is holding up. Large funds he tracks were roughly divided on Broadcom.
• His signal scale showed a buy level, but his investment system indicated “buy a little” because his methods gave mixed results. The shares were below both their 50- and 200-day moving averages. He identifies evidence that customers continue to order and pay as the key catalyst.

SanDisk (SNDK)

• The presenter describes SanDisk as a provider of long-term storage for AI workloads, distinguishing it from Micron, which he characterizes as more focused on faster working memory.
• SanDisk sales grew about 175% last year to nearly $20 billion, and Wall Street was expected to see them double again in the current fiscal year. He cites a valuation of about $7 per dollar of expected earnings, versus more than twice that for the average S&P 500 company.
• Data-center spending with SanDisk is said to be about 14 times its level a year earlier. Signed orders more than doubled in roughly four months to nearly $91 billion, although the presenter says the contracts cover only about one-quarter to one-third of expected sales for the following year.
• Risks include the memory industry’s history of cyclicality: sales fell by about half within a year of peaks in 2018 and 2022. Phones, computers, and memory cards still account for about two-thirds of sales, and higher prices could reduce consumer demand. The presenter says price stability for a few more quarters would help demonstrate that growth is sustainable.
• Funds he tracks reduced holdings by nearly 30% last quarter. While analytical signals rated the shares a “strong buy,” his own system rated them only a buy because of mixed valuation estimates.
• The shares were still 37% above their 200-day moving average and closer to the 50-day average. He favors dollar-cost averaging, noting the stock had moved 10% or more in a day over 30 times that year.

Applied Digital (APLD)

• Applied Digital is presented as a long-term speculative AI data-center investment. The company has signed leases worth about $36 billion, mostly for 15 years, across five campuses. Quarterly rent rose about 50% in three months to $66 million.
• The presenter says a reported $221 million loss largely reflected stock-based compensation, paper losses on investments, and financing-related items. The main financial risk is debt: based on his calculations, current rent remains about $90 million per year short of interest expense.
• He expects rent to nearly cover interest around the end of the year and—if construction proceeds as planned—to reach nearly twice interest payments by mid-next year. Potential rent increases could follow from competition for data-center capacity, but this depends on having power, permits, and tenants in place.
• He says two large funds he tracks bought the stock for the first time last quarter. About one in five traded shares is sold short, according to the presenter.
• Because P/E is not useful while the company is losing money and building depreciation will affect future earnings, he compares data-center landlords using rent. He cites 12–16 times annual rent for Equinix and Digital Realty.
• Using a rent-based approach, he estimates Applied Digital could be worth $10–14 billion after debt once all five campuses are operational, versus about $7 billion currently. This is a rough estimate implying potential to double over 18 months, not a price target or guarantee.
• The stock was about 25% below its 200-day moving average and below its 50-day average. The presenter says it may take at least another year for the investment case to develop and warns that delays or more expensive financing could push the share price lower.

Other Market and Sponsor Content

• The presenter opens by citing a view that the market resembles a compressed spring and says third-quarter earnings may grow by almost 30%.
• A sponsored segment discusses Greenland Mines (GRML) and its proposed Greenland projects: Skergaard for platinum, palladium, and gold, and Sarfartoq for rare earth elements.
• The segment refers to a September 22 defense agreement among the United States, Denmark, and Greenland, and says the company raised more than $59 million from existing shareholders at $12 per share or higher in late September.
• The presenter emphasizes that the projects are still in the exploration stage and that the risks are real.

Framework and Cautions

• Consider both business fundamentals and technical indicators; the presenter says no single indicator determines his decision.
• Use moving averages and the entry “signal ladder” to judge whether a stock’s price has corrected enough, while recognizing that the exact bottom cannot be known.
• Consider dollar-cost averaging instead of investing all at once, particularly in volatile shares.
• Identify the specific catalyst for each thesis:
  • Amazon: Bringing data centers online.
  • Broadcom: Customers continuing to order and pay.
  • SanDisk: Maintaining memory prices.
  • Applied Digital: Growing rent enough to exceed interest expense.
• These are the presenter’s opinions and estimates. He says the video is for educational purposes only, that he is not a financial advisor, and that viewers should do their own research. The Greenland Mines segment was distributed on behalf of the company.

Presenters and Sources

Presenter Brian (BWB – Business With Brian) cites Tom Lee for the compressed-spring market view. Greenland Mines is identified as the sponsor. The video also refers to company statements and institutional-fund positioning tracked by the presenter, without naming those funds.