Vice World Champion Fabio Valentini Reveals His NEWEST ORDER FLOW Strategy (Live on Chart)

Finance-Focused Summary (Order Flow / Intraday Trading Strategy)

Presenter / Context

• Fabio Valentini is described as a professional scalper and an “alpha researcher.”
• He says he built a new day-trading strategy over the last ~6 months, based on:
  • Order flow
  • Delta
  • Absorption
  • Value area/value area migration
• Primary focus: NASDAQ, with references that imply an intraday / 1-candle charting style.

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Instruments / Tickers Mentioned

• NASDAQ (explicitly referenced throughout).
• Cross-market examples / context:
  • ES (E-mini S&P)
  • Gold
• Crypto is mentioned only in promotional context; no specific ticker is provided.
• No specific stocks, bond tickers, ETFs, or other commodities tickers are named.

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Core Methodology / Step-by-Step Framework

1) Determine Daily Bias via “Value Migration” + Pressure

Identify the direction of the day by studying:

• Imbalance
• Absorption
• Aggression
• Path of least resistance
• Value migration (directional movement of the auction/value area)

2) Use Delta to Verify Whether Price Is Actually Being Moved

Use delta and absorption to judge whether:

• aggressive buyers/sellers are truly advancing price, or
• orders are being absorbed, producing little/no follow-through

3) Locate “Relevant Levels” (Value Area Extremes + Pressure Zones)

Emphasize trades when price moves toward levels where:

• directional auction occurs outside value
• there is directional movement rather than balance/chop

He tracks concepts such as:

• Value Area High / Value Area Low
• Point of Control (POC) (mentioned in a candle context)
• Discount vs. fair value/balance:
  • If price goes below fair value, that region is treated as “discount” (potentially relevant for buyers if absorption appears)

4) “NASDAQ Effort” Confirmation Model (Proprietary)

“NASDAQ effort” is framed as a dominance/simplification tool:

• If one side can move price with fewer contracts, the order book is thinner on that side
• This can cause the market to “explode”

Confirmation is described as layered:

• Large order participation
• evidence that one side is taking control
• timing confirmation (example cited: the closing of a candle)

5) Entry Style and Trade Plan

• The strategy is intraday / scalp-focused (not swing trading).
• Entries are described as confluence-based (not “setup-only”).
• Example execution metrics stated:
  • “Six trades, five take profit, one stop loss.”
  • “five tick profit, one stop loss” (tick size not fully specified beyond that)

6) Position Management (Risk-to-Zero via Trailing)

• Exits rely primarily on trailing stops, not static partials.
• One described rule: “Trail my position below the last aggression.”
• If the directional thesis holds:
  • move risk toward zero after confirmation
• If the thesis fails:
  • stop out below/through the last aggression / relevant level

Partial profit testing is described as generally not working well for NASDAQ:

• Partials can reduce risk, but may remove you before a larger continuation move
• Therefore, trailing is preferred for NASDAQ

7) “1-to-1” / “One-to-One” Execution Loop

• Strong emphasis on consistent risk/reward:
  • targets often around 1:1
  • sometimes outcomes resemble 1:2
  • potential for multiple targets in sequence (e.g., “three or four take profit in a row”) if drift sustains
• Re-entry concept:
  • if stopped, he may reload when price returns inside the relevant area, or when value area behavior supports drift again

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Performance Metrics & Explicit Claims

Win Rate Claims

• Claims the model’s win rate is “really high” for a 1:1 / 1-to-2 style approach.
• Explicit caution case:
  • In extremely choppy conditions:
    • win rate drops to about ~40–50%
    • described as break-even after commission

Reward-to-Risk Context

• He acknowledges the tradeoff between win rate and payoff:
  • higher reward vs lower reward, and the relationship between win rate and reward-to-risk
• No hard backtest outputs provided:
  • no equity curve, CAGR, or max drawdown figures

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Recommendations / Cautions (Risk Management & Model Limits)

• Major caution: drift/trend-following strategies struggle in consolidation/chop.
  • He treats this as a trade-off to protect capital.
• Commission sensitivity:
  • commission meaningfully affects short-term outcomes, especially in chop
  • profitability requires edge that overcomes costs
• No cross-asset assumption:
  • Even with correlation (e.g., Nasdaq vs ES), microstructure differs
  • a strategy may work in Nasdaq but fail in ES (he reports testing and seeing losses)
  • gold examples are used to illustrate false transfer assumptions
• No “holy grail”:
  • explicitly states it is not guaranteed to be always profitable

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Model Development / Validation Timeline

• Development: ~6 months
• Validation/testing:
  • at least 3 years of data used for validation
  • then 3 months of out-of-sample monitoring/execution
• Mentions:
  • real-time / 100% execution monitoring
  • collecting roughly ~300 rates in about 3 months (approximate figure)

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Disclosures / Disclaimers

• “Nothing in this video is financial advice.”
• Encourages viewers to:
  • not “switch your brain off”
  • test/simulate first
  • do proper research before trading

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Other Finance-Adjacent Concepts Mentioned

• Quantum research is mentioned with unclear context.
• Mentions an ongoing/future system involving:
  • option flow pressure
  • hedging activity
• Strategy types referenced:
  • Trend following (current focus)
  • Mean reversion (also referenced)

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Key Numbers / Concrete Operational Details (From Subtitles)

• ~6 months: strategy build period
• 3 years: data validation
• 3 months: out-of-sample execution monitoring
• Example trade structure:
  • Six trades: five take profit / one stop loss
  • profit/loss described as “five tick profit, one stop loss”
• Choppy conditions estimate:
  • win rate ~40–50% (break-even after commission)
• Risk/reward emphasis:
  • often 1:1
  • sometimes mentions 1:2
• Concept referenced:
  • “one daily shot” / momentum model (conceptual reference)

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Presenters / Sources Mentioned

• Fabio Valentini (main speaker)
• Brandon (interviewer/host; name not otherwise clarified in subtitles)
• Promotional sponsor/organization: IQ Capital (mentioned only in ad segments; not as a market-data source)