NFA Live! Bitcoin in 2026

Bitcoin / MicroStrategy “strategy selling” as a market catalyst

The panel discusses recent crypto market weakness, noting that Bitcoin is dropping alongside broader sentiment. A key question is whether MicroStrategy (and CEO Michael Saylor) being perceived as “paper-handing” is a meaningful cause—or simply a convenient narrative.

They argue the primary overhang is that Strategy (MicroStrategy) resumed selling Bitcoin after a long period of messaging that it would never sell.

• Hosts cite Strategy selling 32 BTC (~$2.5M) toward the end of last month, framing it as the first notable sell since the earlier 2022 period.
• Debate:
  • Rob: Says it’s psychologically/behaviorally important. Saylor’s prior “never sell” messaging may have influenced followers who didn’t take profits. He also notes that “selling to stay solvent” and meeting dividend obligations could be part of the reality.
    • He expands this into a dividend/cash-burden argument, suggesting the company may face pressure maintaining payouts without selling more BTC.
    • He references STRC and a threshold concept that could trigger higher dividend requirements, implying greater cash stress.
  • Ben: Pushes back against overreacting, arguing that “Saylor sold, therefore Bitcoin fell” is a narrative used to avoid accountability.
    • He also points out that the amount sold is relatively small and speculates that selling could be about liquidity/testing rather than a major structural shift.

Both also note that ETF outflows may be the larger, steadier driver of market mood.

• They cite 13 consecutive days of ETF outflows, suggesting the “real crisis” may be playing out in the ETF market rather than solely in MicroStrategy’s trading.
• They discuss a broader ETF pattern: thematic products often underperform after launch, especially when introduced late in a bull cycle.

Larger stock-market context: big IPOs (SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic)

The panel shifts to non-crypto investment themes, asking whether investors should chase hype around massive IPOs.

They mention:

• SpaceX (reportedly targeting a $2T valuation)
• OpenAI

• Anthropic (filed a draft S-1)

• Rob: Cautious—IPO performance varies widely. He suggests markets may be entering a more volatile / “bear-market” type environment, where companies could rise but volatility could make it hard for markets to absorb those valuations.

• Ben: Expects IPOs to create a liquidity event, likely producing a price spike followed by a correction, based on historical midterm-year stock behavior and cycle patterns.
  • He suggests that after a correction, Bitcoin could benefit from a “catch-up” trade if it’s nearing a cycle bottom.

They also note these companies may be quickly routed into major indices (e.g., NASDAQ 100 / S&P 500), which could generate automatic passive inflows from index funds and pensions—meaning investors could end up owning portions of the companies regardless of personal conviction.

Green economy / energy investing (net zero, nuclear, and related sectors)

The panel discusses a report estimating the UK’s “green economy” at about £105B, and debates whether green investment is growth-killing or essential for long-term stability.

Rather than focusing only on renewables, both lean toward a broader energy-transition view:

• Ben
  • Says he has solar panels personally.
  • However, his investments tilt heavily toward nuclear, emphasizing uranium and small modular reactor (SMR) exposure (including an ETF tracking uranium and SMR-related companies).
• Rob
  • References solar at his home as well, while noting it can be inconsistent due to weather and infrastructure constraints.
  • Argues the world would be better off if it had “leaned in” to nuclear earlier.
  • Highlights an “AI + energy + infrastructure” angle, including examples of energy/AI-adjacent holdings.
  • He even notes Bitcoin mining operators pivoting toward data-center / AI storage narratives.

How the panel ties it back to crypto

The panel connects energy/infrastructure narratives back to crypto by framing AI and data-center power demand as supportive of certain mining/energy-adjacent plays—suggesting that “where the energy goes, value follows,” and that crypto-linked markets may benefit indirectly.

Presenters / contributors

• Ben (Ben Ros)
• Rob