Wenn du HIER nicht verkaufst, verlierst du ALLES !

Finance-focused subtitle summary

Key ideas on when to sell / take profits

• Selling is the hardest part of investing and can materially change outcomes (e.g., “300% return” vs “50% gain”), with “just a few weeks” making the difference.
• Core rule: sell if the investment has become “worse than at the time of purchase.”
  • If that condition is true, the speaker advises selling decisively: “without ifs, ands, or buts.”
• Small misses can still lead to big declines:
  • Even if reported results are only slightly worse than expected (example: 3% worse),
  • stocks may still drop roughly ~30% to 50%.
  • Takeaway: valuation/expectations often matter more than “small misses.”

Method / framework implied (step-by-step logic)

1. Classify positions
   • Core positions: “top-notch” businesses with consistent earnings/growth and strong competitive advantage
     • Intended for long-term holding
     • Even add on crashes
   • Non-core / higher-risk positions: bought for momentum, low valuation, or cyclical/AI themes
     • Reviewed more actively and sold sooner
2. Compare current fundamentals/valuation vs. purchase
   • If fundamentals/quality have degraded vs what you bought: sell immediately
   • If valuation has become far too high: take profits
3. Use targeted profit-taking
   • Sell parts of non-core positions when valuation stretches or the “numbers” worsen.
   • Prefer rebalancing over “sell out of panic.”
4. Hold rules for core positions
   • Core holdings should generally be held through major drawdowns unless something “serious” changes.
   • Emphasis on long horizons like 10+ years.

Examples and explicit recommendations/cautions

• Nike (2022 purchase) — NKE
  • Bought during the 2022 crash
  • Later quarterly results were described as “terrible”
  • Sold with a gain of ~15%
  • Caution: if they hadn’t sold when the stock was around $100, they “would have lost ~60%.”
• Interactive Brokers (IBKR)
  • Bought during last year’s crash
  • Sold “a few weeks ago” with profit of over 85%, when the price was around $84
  • Valuation shift:
    • At purchase: P/E ~23
    • Now: P/E close to 35
  • Logic: the stock “no longer had a fair valuation” despite continued price increases

Macro / timing guidance (next 12 months focus)

• Near-term environment
  • Returns this year are characterized as poor except for AI semiconductors.
  • Expectation: “the tide will soon turn”—software could rise while some AI semiconductor stocks fall sharply.
• Interest rates & inflation
  • Watch US interest rates and US inflation.
  • Mechanism described: when rates are lowered (or expected to be), money rotates from defensive to growth.
  • Claim: chances of rates stabilizing next year are high, supported by falling inflation.
  • Oil is mentioned as a driver (wording is unclear), with the idea that falling oil could reduce pressures/cost dynamics (as framed in the transcript).
• Election / timing thesis
  • Advises: wait for US midterm elections for most investments.
  • Adds a statistical claim about 2027:
    • “Third year of the US presidency,” directly after midterms
    • Expected pattern: a strong increase followed by a correction, possibly a sharper drop
  • Timing emphasis in 2027:
    • Cites 2023: strong rise after midterms through July, decline into October, then rise again
    • Suggests August and September are “reliable” bad months → consider taking profits beforehand

Crypto guidance

• No cryptocurrency selling this year
  • Rationale: accumulation is more important
  • Crypto is described as “crashier,” followed by a strong recovery
• If you bought this year but don’t want to hold longer:
  • take initial profits next year
• The speaker’s personal stance suggests they likely hold Bitcoin longer.
• Bitcoin is explicitly mentioned; no specific altcoins are named.

Sector / style implications

• AI infrastructure / AI semiconductor stocks
  • Strong warning: they are “currently very dangerous”
  • Plan: sell some AI infrastructure positions this year and take profits rather than waiting for a possible ~50% crash
• Software companies
  • Expected to benefit when AI stocks fall
  • The speaker wouldn’t sell software unless prices rise “too sharply.”

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Tickers / assets / instruments mentioned

• Google (Alphabet)
• Microsoft
• Meta
• Amazon
• Nike (NKE) (ticker not stated, but company is)
• Interactive Brokers (IBKR) (ticker not stated, but company is)
• ASML
• Bitcoin

(Also referenced: AI semiconductors / AI infrastructure, software, “defensive” vs “growth,” momentum, low valuation, cyclical theory.)

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Key numbers explicitly cited

• Illustrative return framing: 300% vs 50%
• Drawdown expectation: can fall ~30% to 50% even with only ~3% worse results vs expectations
• Nike (2022 example)
  • Sold with ~15% gain
  • Reference price around $100
  • If not sold: potential loss ~60%
• Interactive Brokers (IBKR)
  • Sold with >85% profit
  • Reference sale price around $84
  • P/E: ~23 at purchase to ~35 now
• Timing references
  • Focus on the next 12 months
  • US midterm elections as a pivotal point
  • 2027 as statistically notable
  • Concern focused around August/September, with reference to July and October dynamics from 2023

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Disclosures / disclaimers

• Explicit: “I am not a financial advisor.”
• Explicit: “this is not financial advice.”
• Encourages viewers to do their own research.

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Presenters / sources

• No other presenters or external sources are named in the subtitles.
• The speaker references their own actions and a “second channel,” but no additional person/company is presented beyond the assets listed.