Global Food Prices Could Stay High Into 2027. Here’s Why | The Palki Sharma Show | IGR

Food Prices May Remain High Through 2027

The report argues that global food prices may remain elevated through 2027—not because the world is producing dramatically less food, but because the systems used to grow, transport, and supply it are under simultaneous pressure.

Factors driving prices

• Disrupted grain shipping: Attacks around the Black Sea have restricted exports from Ukraine and Russia, which together account for about 17% of globally traded grain, according to the report. Ship calls at Ukrainian Black Sea ports fell 90% year over year in August, and six ships were attacked in the region over a recent 10-day period. Wheat prices have risen by more than 30% this year.
• Higher energy and input costs: Conflict in West Asia has pushed up fuel costs and disrupted natural gas and fertilizer supply routes, including through the Strait of Hormuz. More expensive fertilizer raises farmers’ production costs, while costly diesel affects farm machinery, irrigation, and food transport.
• Additional supply pressures: El Niño-related droughts and floods could harm harvests. Countries are also building up domestic stocks, while China and Russia have tightened export rules through quotas, tariffs, or licensing requirements—further limiting supplies available to international markets.
• Effects on consumers: The report points to record rice prices in Indonesia, rising bread prices in Egypt, and pressures in India. There, a weak monsoon and high sugar prices have prompted the government to restrict sugar use for ethanol production so more remains available to consumers.

Central conclusion

The world is not necessarily running out of food. Rather, the infrastructure and mechanisms for producing and delivering it are strained. The report warns that this could keep grocery costs high and increase pressure on household budgets.

Presenter: Palki Sharma