💥 ALERTA: riesgo país en 655 y Merval bajo los US$1.700 🔻 Confianza del Gobierno por el piso! 🤯

Finance-Focused Summary (Markets, Investing, Macro, Company Results)

Macro / Sovereign Risk (Argentina)

• Argentina country risk index: 655 points on Friday (+46 vs the previous Friday).
• Weekly path (inverse relationship between sovereign bond prices and country risk):
  • Mon: 626
  • Tue: 607
  • Wed: 607
  • Thu: 635
    • Sovereign bonds down ~2%
    • IRR > 10% for longer-dated sovereigns
  • Fri: 655
    • Argentina bonds rose, but country risk still rose

US rate driver (why it mattered)

• US 10-year Treasury yields fell after US employment data released Thursday.
• Key takeaway: bond prices depend on:
  1. the US risk-free rate, and
  2. the country risk premium.
• The commentary emphasizes that country risk measures a spread (Argentina yield minus US Treasury yield).
  • That spread can rise even if bond prices rise.

Dollar-denominated sovereign yields (range)

• ~10% to 13% in USD, with references to Latin America and the UK.

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Equity Market (Merval)

• Merval fell ~3% in USD terms over the week; Argentina assets were described as being “hit very hard.”

Referenced levels

• June (this year): ~$2,270+
• Now: ~$700
• Implied decline: about -25% in dollars

Election framing (tactical, not a valuation model)

• The discussion uses an “election/binary event” framing for uncertainty next year.
• Downside scenario suggested: Merval could fall to ~$1,000 before elections (example: ~$2,300 in Jan 2025 → $1,000 in Sep 2025).
• Upside if the preferred political outcome occurs:
  • If Merval ~ $1,000 → $2,000, that’s framed as ~+100% in dollars.
• Caution explicitly stated: a drop to $1,000 does not guarantee profits unless the “binary event” occurs; otherwise the index could fall further (described as “00 or 300”).

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Government Confidence (Ditella)

• Ditella government confidence index: -5.9% in September
• Level and interpretation:
  • Index: 1.94 points (range 1 to 5)
  • Implied approval: ~38.7%
• Context:
  • Described as returning to the lowest point of Milei’s tenure
  • Also reached in July 2026 and Sep 2025

Component declines

• “Concern for general interest”: -12.3%
• Government performance evaluation: -9.3%
• “Potential to solve government problems”: declined least (relative wording)

Geography (“Interior”)

• The “Interior” region was noted as weakening month-by-month.

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Citizenship by Investment (“Golden Passport”) — Argentina

• Argentina reportedly launched a “golden passport” / citizenship-by-investment program.
• Investment options mentioned (for a foreigner/family):
  • Direct contribution: 350,000 USD equivalents (“ucos” referenced)
  • Alternative: sovereign bond of $800,000 created especially for the program
  • Alternative: zero-interest loan (subtitles show a garbled number; exact amount unclear, but context suggests a large USD figure)
• Typical family total cost: ~$500,000
  • Age-tiering referenced:
    • $100,000 for ages 18–25
    • $185,000 each for under 18 (some subtitle garbling around brackets)
• Program presenters / sources cited:
  • Luis Caputo and Diego Santili at the Argentine embassy in Paris

Market relevance discussed

• The program could face political pushback (“selling out” narrative), but the presenter argued it can still help by placing “something behind it” and potentially supporting inflows.

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Currency Hedging / FX Stabilization (Argentina)

“Dólar Link” / Public Sector Hedges

• Public sector (Central Bank + Treasury) granted $11.6B in currency hedging instruments.
• Framing: instruments are presented as “protect you from devaluation.”
  • Investor contributes pesos, receives pesos, and performance is linked to the official exchange rate.

Monthly accumulation (stock)

• Said to be a monthly increase vs September of +$16.6B (subtitle wording confusing, but magnitude stated).
• Described as the largest stock seeking coverage since Oct last year (when it exceeded $15B).

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Policy / Market Mechanics Mentioned

• Central Bank renewed Dollar Link bills
  • Renewal note: only 24% of an exchange was renewed (as stated).
• Secondary market trading
  • High trading volume in a bill maturing Oct 30, 2026 (described as Dólar Link-adjusted).
• Repo / short-term rates
  • Repo rate ~30% yield on Wednesday
  • Started the week at ~20%
• FX purchases
  • Central Bank started buying dollars more aggressively late week
  • Purchase figures:
    • 323 million across three rounds (as stated)
  • Average daily purchases referenced:
    • June/July: “exceeding very large number” per day (subtitle garble prevents exact reading)
    • September close: average daily purchases $22,000,000 (explicit)

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Corporate / International News & Earnings

US / Global Macro: Employment Shock (Fed Expectations)

• US jobs report (September) released Thursday, described as a “bucket of cold water.”
• Key numbers:
  • 29,000 jobs created vs 90,000 expected
  • Prior month (August): 16,000 then 2,000 mentioned (subtitles garbled, indicating weak prints)
  • Unemployment rate: 4.2%
  • Average hourly income: +0.1% per month vs expected 0.3%
• Market implication (Fed path):
  • Before Wednesday: up to 4 rate hikes were expected
  • Probability of at least one hike in October fell from 100% → 80%
  • US rate decline fed into Argentina’s country risk dynamics.

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Tesla (Vehicle Deliveries)

• Tesla releases delivery numbers 2–3 weeks ahead of earnings.
• Deliveries:
  • Expected: 464,000
  • Reported: ~490,000
• Said to have driven a stock price rise.

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Argentina Corporate Approvals / Capex

• Toyota
  • Approved to build another plant in Sárate
  • Dedicated exclusively to electric vehicle manufacturing
  • 70% exported
  • Mention of a potential export hybrid S10
• Pluspetrol
  • Approved to enter the regime with a project in Vaca Muerta
  • Area bought from ExxonMobil in 2025
  • Investment: >$200B
• Central Puerto
  • Energy storage expansion
  • First company to store energy during low-demand hours
  • Battery storage plants to reduce outages, especially in summer
  • Benefits linked to Vaca Muerta and data centers
• IPF (Horacio Marín referenced)
  • Agreement with Entre Ríos for 3 years
  • Supply of sand for fracking
  • Logistics savings: 30%–40% vs prior sourcing from Cordoba/Brazil
  • Ships from Entre Ríos mentioned to reduce trucking

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Earnings Season: Microm + Nike

• Earnings season described generally: companies present financials every 3 months.

Microm (likely “Micron”)

• Results described as surpassing expectations:
  • Revenue: $3.48B more than expected (baseline not specified)
  • EPS: beat estimates by ~$2
  • EPS level: “over $33”
• Narrative drivers:
  • Best period in its history
  • Driven by a memory cycle (RAM + NAND)
  • Open question: whether supply can keep up with future AI-driven demand
• Financing / balance sheet:
  • Claim: growth without needing debt
  • Growth without issuing new equity or bonds mentioned (subtitles referenced “neither issuing new shares… nor issuing bonds”)

Nike

• Described as a mixed quarter:
  • Missed revenue estimates
  • Beat EPS estimates
  • Market punished it nonetheless
• Key balance sheet point:
  • Nike deleveraged materially
  • Debt reduced significantly
  • More cash on hand than long-term debt
  • Strength attributed to a restructuring process (“Peace” program)

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Explicit Investment / Trading Recommendations or Cautions

• A tactical approach was framed as: “buy if Merval returns to $1,000”, linked to expected election dynamics (binary-outcome framing).
• Caution repeated: buying at $1,000 only makes sense if the political “binary event” occurs; otherwise Merval could still drop further (example range: $0/300).
• No detailed asset-allocation framework was provided, though a workshop was promoted.

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Disclosures / Disclaimers

• No explicit “not financial advice” disclaimer was seen in the subtitles.

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Tickers / Instruments / Assets Mentioned (Explicit or Implied)

• Argentina sovereign bonds (tickers referenced generally; specific names included as text references such as AL30 and L30)
• Merval Index
• Tesla (TSLA) (ticker not explicitly stated, but company is explicit)
• Dollar Link / Dólar Link instruments
• Dolár Link bill maturity: Oct 30, 2026
• Nike
• Microm / Micron
• CDAR (mentioned, but the exact mapping was unclear)
• Companies referenced for news/earnings: Tesla, Toyota, Pluspetrol, ExxonMobil, Central Puerto, IPF, Micron, Nike

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Methodology / Frameworks Mentioned

Election “Binary Scenario” Framework (descriptive)

• Expect Merval could fall to ~$1,000 ahead of elections due to uncertainty.
• Only consider buying for upside if the preferred political outcome occurs.
• Suggested upside path: $1,000 → $2,000 (framed as roughly +100% in USD).
• Additional downside possible if the outcome is unfavorable.

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Presenters / Sources Mentioned

• Nico (co-host)
• Rama (speaker/host)
• Argentine officials: Luis Caputo and Diego Santili
• Argentina event participant: Horacio Marín (IPF)
• Companies used as sources of news/earnings: Tesla, Toyota, Pluspetrol, ExxonMobil, Central Puerto, IPF, Micron, Nike