Martin Armstrong: His Civil Unrest and War Models Align in 2026

Summary

Martin Armstrong argues that the European Union may not survive beyond 2029, citing growing resistance to centralized authority and demands for national sovereignty in countries including Germany, France, and Italy. He links this discontent partly to migration policies and claims European leaders have failed to acknowledge the consequences of their decisions. Some of his statements about the motives behind border policies and the handling of crime are allegations he makes, rather than independently established findings.

Armstrong says European leaders may be emphasizing the threat from Russia to strengthen support for Brussels and redirect domestic tensions toward an external enemy. Drawing a comparison with the Roman Republic, he argues that societies can become more polarized when internal political groups turn against one another. He contends that Russia has little economic incentive to invade Europe but could respond if it feels threatened by NATO. He also criticizes proposals for greater European military involvement in Ukraine, warning that conflict with Russia could draw in other powers.

Markets

Armstrong says international money is moving toward the United States, helping support U.S. equities despite warnings of a crash. He argues that major market booms require capital from around the world, and that investors unsettled by war and political risk may favor stocks, property, and other private or tangible assets over government bonds and banks. He describes rising prices across a range of assets as evidence of capital seeking safety or distance from the financial system.

Iran and the Strait of Hormuz

Armstrong argues that Iran’s actions could be intended to create economic and financial pressure, including on Gulf states with heavy debt, rather than simply to disrupt oil supplies. He warns that damage to energy infrastructure could push crude prices sharply higher, citing a model that he says indicates prices could reach $200 a barrel by 2028. He criticizes sanctions and regime-change strategies, arguing that they often fail and can produce unintended consequences.

Forecasts for 2026

Armstrong says his separate models for civil unrest and international conflict both point to heightened risks in 2026. He describes a possible pattern of simultaneous, dispersed flashpoints—including Europe, the Middle East, and Asia—rather than a conflict centered on a single enemy or front. These are his forecasts and interpretations, not established outcomes.

Presenters and Contributors

• Andy Millette — presenter
• Steve Yang — presenter
• Martin Armstrong — guest, Armstrong Economics