Video summary

ICT Charter Price Action Model 3 \ Amplified Lecture

Main summary

Key takeaways

Finance

Finance-Specific Summary (Markets / Strategy / Macro / Order Flow)

The video teaches “ICT Charter Price Action Model 3 – Amplified Lecture”, focused on swing trading (intermediate-term). The framework targets daily liquidity pools and uses the Commitment of Traders (COT) Commercials “hedging program” to set directional bias.

Core Premise

  1. Determine a directional “stage” from COT commercials

    • Look at the last 12 months of COT Commercials net positions.
    • Classify bias as bullish vs bearish based on where the commercials sit relative to a midpoint threshold.

  2. Confirm on the daily chart using liquidity pools

    • Identify equal highs / equal lows and related stop-run behavior.

  3. Use the monthly chart for swing context (range expansion)

    • The model seeks range expansion during a month in the direction indicated by the monthly bias.
    • It does not require the monthly candle to close at highs/lows—only that it expands enough to create opportunity.

  4. FX framing (Canadian Dollar example)

    • The lecture is framed around FX, illustrated with exposure to the Canadian Dollar.
    • It relies on the inverse relationship between:
      • USD/CAD spot (pair direction), and
      • Canadian dollar futures (direction reversed depending on whether you trade futures vs spot).

Instruments / Tickers Mentioned

  • Forex pairs / base instruments
    • USD/CAD (“dollar CAD”)
    • CAD futures (used for the COT Commercial series)
  • No equities/ETFs/crypto were explicitly mentioned.

Key Market-Structure Concepts (What to Look For)

Liquidity Pools

  • Equal lows / ideal equal lows
    • Potential sell-stop liquidity below the level.
  • Equal highs / intermediate-term highs
    • Potential buy-stop liquidity above the level.

Order Blocks / Imbalance / Fair Value Gaps (FVG)

  • Monthly and weekly order blocks
    • Described as “down close candles” that form bullish order blocks when direction flips.
  • Imbalance / fair value gap / “void”
    • Used to support “high probability” displacement narratives.
  • Buy-side delivery / sell-side imbalance
    • References price inefficiency and displacement language associated with imbalance.

Trading Session / Intraday Alignment (Entry Timing / Risk Reduction)

  • London open and New York open are highlighted as primary “kill zones” for intraday timing.
  • For swing execution guidance, the presenter notes preferring entries that align with Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday when buying (or selling short for bearish setups).

Step-by-Step Framework / Methodology (Model 3)

1) Determine the Directional “Stage” Using COT Commercials (last 12 months)

  • Take the highest high and lowest low of the commercials’ net position over the prior 12 months.
  • Split the range in half to create a midpoint threshold.
  • Interpret bias:
    • Above midpoint → bullish commercial buy program
    • Below midpoint → commercial cell (sell) model (bearish)

2) Confirm with the Daily Liquidity Pool

  • Bullish stage: look for equal highs (buy-stop liquidity resting above).
  • Bearish stage: look for equal lows (sell-stop liquidity resting below).

3) Use Monthly Expansion for Swing Context

  • Expect the monthly candle/range to expand higher or lower consistent with the monthly bias.
  • The lecture uses “EPOD data ranges” conceptually, resembling lookbacks of roughly:
    • ~20 days, ~40 days, or ~60 days (framed as last 3 months / quarter effect)
  • Important: the monthly candle does not need to close at extremes—only expand enough for the sweep/entry concept to work.

4) Identify an “Optimal Trade Entry”

  • The example uses a Fibonacci (FIB)-anchored swing low concept for timing.
  • Entry refinement goes from 4H → hourly to incorporate day-of-week behavior.

5) Targets and Scaling

  • Targets are based on FIB expansion levels:
    • “Target 1” then “Target 2” for scaling.
  • The presenter emphasizes:
    • Scaling out at full increment FIB levels
    • Optionally scaling when price reaches prior old highs (not only raw FIB lines)
  • Some FIB levels are described as negative (“-” / dash) numbers due to charting convention (top line acts as 0; above becomes negative in their setup).

6) Risk Management Guidance

  • Stop placement is tied to nearby structural levels:
    • In the example long: stop placed below equal lows / order block low.
  • Intraday charts may be used to tighten stops (reduce risk), but the core model can stand without it.

Key Numbers / Quantitative Details Mentioned

Timeframes

  • COT stage: last 12 months
  • Monthly context lookback: approximately 20 / 40 / 60 days from month start
  • Scheduling example: ~20 days after the start of the trading month
  • Example date anchors referenced:
    • March 1st, 2018
    • March 5th–7th (liquidity pool / equal highs example)
    • April 19th, 2019 (video update timestamp)
    • Saturday the 20th of April 2019 (teaching/backtesting mention)

Pips / Performance Metrics (Strategy Objectives)

  • Typical swing-trade objectives: 100–300 pips average
  • Expected frequency: about 1–2 times per month
  • Example scenario notes:
    • “over 200 pips available”
    • Price movement spanning roughly 3 days

Price Levels (CAD Example)

  • 70.5: referenced as an “OT level” in the FIB (scale reference, not fully numeric-defined in context)
  • Draw-on-liquidity / target examples:
    • 13160: “actual 10 level” draw reference
    • 13385: another draw-on-liquidity reference (target sweep zone)
  • Stop example:
    • Low referenced: 13126
    • Suggested stop: approximately 10 pips below 13125 / 13115 (instructional)
  • Target zone example:
    • 13560–13565 (rounded)
    • Daily candle low: 13563 (mapped to ~13560 area)
    • “Kill” condition: “if we lose this low,” tied to the idea that equal lows were already swept
  • Overlapping “institutional” level:
    • 13080

Explicit Recommendations / Cautions

  • The framework is not a “one-shot intraday model”; it is a monthly-expansion swing framework.
  • A monthly close matching the bias is not required—the key is range expansion and liquidity draw.
  • The presenter discourages overly retail-style candlestick interpretation, emphasizing liquidity/displacement logic instead.
  • For risk reduction, intraday kill zones and tighter entries can be used, but the model’s core logic remains consistent.

Disclosures / Disclaimers

  • No explicit “not financial advice” disclaimer language was captured in the subtitles.

Presenters / Sources Mentioned

  • Michael (presenter; repeatedly referenced as “Michael”)
  • Larry Williams
    • Credited as the author of How I Made a Million Dollars Trading Commodities
    • Referenced regarding COT framework / zero line context
  • Mentions of Twitter / social platforms where prior analyses and examples were shared (no specific handle provided in the subtitles).

Original video