Video summary

I'm Thinking About Buying Next Week. Here's My Full Plan

Main summary

Key takeaways

Finance

Finance-focused summary

Portfolio performance (Couch Investing portfolio vs. benchmark)

  • Past week: +1.43% (portfolio) vs +0.88% (S&P 500)
  • Year-to-date (YTD): +30.36% (portfolio) vs +9.34% (S&P 500)
  • Since start: +228.32% (portfolio) vs +50.1% (S&P 500)

Upcoming earnings week (companies mentioned + timing)

  • Tuesday
    • Before market open: Pony.ai
    • After close: Zscaler
  • Wednesday (after close): Marvell, Salesforce, Snowflake, Synopsys, HPQ
  • Thursday (after close): Dell, UiPath, MongoDB, Costco, Autodesk, SentinelOne, Okta
  • Broader note: Broadcom expected to report “the week after” Marvell.
  • Theme/caution: AI/cyber expectations may be mismatched with actual results (“stock might be doing one thing, business might be doing another”).

Current portfolio composition & notable position sizes / prices (explicit figures)

Top movers named (percent of portfolio)

  • NVE: #1 (largest; no % given)
  • Rocket Lab: #2 — 10.25%, price about $135/share
  • AMD: #3 — 9.61%, price about $467/share
  • Google: just under 9%
  • SoFi: #5 — 8.22%
  • Micron: 6.56%

Other holdings/positions mentioned

Meta, Oscar Health, DLocal, Uber, Robinhood, Netflix, Palantir, “a couple of shares of Nvidia,” and Rubrik (~3%, slightly down; not yet reported).

Cash

  • Cash position: included (size not stated)

Explicit actions / recommendations for next week

  • Monday: markets closed → “free day”
  • Cash deployment plan: deploy cash after the deal/news environment clarifies if opportunities appear.
  • Potential/likely buys (based on valuation + rates):
    • SoFi: “still like to pick up sofi in the $15”
    • SoFi: continue increasing the position
    • Uber: increase position “a little bit more”
  • Profit-taking:
    • Took profits in Rocket Lab, AMD, Google, Micron
    • May take more profits if they keep rising to increase cash
    • Then consider buying on a possible correction in the back half of the year
  • Conditional add:
    • Rocket Lab: “after SpaceX goes public,” the speaker “for sure” wants to pick up more if allowed to buy
  • Portfolio view: “buy more Meta” framed as the default incremental action; described as undervalued with a longer horizon.

Options strategy (framework + risk notes)

  • Strategy used: selling covered calls on “high-flying names” (examples: Navitas, Rocket Lab, AMD, Micron)

  • Mechanics / risk management:

    • If price approaches the strike and there are “a day or two left,” roll them up to collect premium again.
    • Rationale: if strikes are hit, it signals the stock is “extremely overvalued/overbought,” making premium collection more acceptable.
  • Other tactics mentioned: possibly start selling puts and use “various strategies” with attention to risk-to-reward.
  • Disclosure note: speaker points viewers to learning resources (see “Presenter/source” section).

Zeta (stock fundamentals vs. price)

  • Speaker reiterates an earlier view: the company is doing what it “should be doing,” and was undervalued earlier at about $12.
  • Current trading price: about $18 (earlier peak around $24, down to ~$15, now rising again).
  • Thesis: “As long as the business continues to do well, stock will follow.”

Macro: interest-rate cut probabilities (specific numbers & timeline)

  • Next FOMC meeting: ~24 days
  • Named participant: Kevin Warsh
  • Rate context: current target rate 3.50%–3.75% (implied)
  • January 2027 meeting probabilities (explicit):
    • 40.4% chance of a 25 bps increase
    • Compared with “a month ago” probability: 0.6%
  • Interpretation:
    • Probabilities change rapidly with inflation/GDP/unemployment outcomes.
    • Higher rates can hurt:
      • Fintechs / financials (net interest income can help, but other business areas may be pressured)
      • Unprofitable high-growth companies

Oil/inflation conditional scenario

  • If a deal is made with Iran and oil drops back below $90 (possibly $80) over the next month:
    • Expected outcome: inflation comes back down
    • Then rate-cut probabilities change over roughly 3 months

AI bottleneck / “rotation” discussion (risk and speculative caution)

  • Mentions a dashboard website: “AI Bottlenecks” (from someone at Nebius).
  • Framework: group watchlists “by teams” such as:
    • Lithography and fab tools, INP substrates, photonics, HBM packaging, memory, “super cycle,” power and grid, cooling, custom silicon, etc.
  • Observed extreme momentum examples (5-day moves):
    • ARM, Navitas, Cybers, Astera Labs, Samsung Electro, Credo
    • Reported rises roughly 48%, 44%, 42%, 40%, 38%, 35% over 5 days
    • A “photonics” team cited as up ~1,603% YTD (parabolic)
  • Caution/disclosure:
    • Many names are OTC and small-cap → risk of “gambling” for “the next super multi-bagger.”
    • Severe drawdown risk: “many… will then go down 90%.”
    • Not every name is “BS,” but lack of understanding increases the chance of “hold the bag.”

Company / sector datapoints mentioned (selected quantitative items)

  • SoFi (CEO clip):
    • Outlook: over 30% revenue growth and ~30% incremental EBITDA margin
    • Q1 actual cited: 41% revenue growth with 40% incremental margins
    • Valuation note: $15 trading at ~2x tangible book (tangible book growth expected)
  • FICO: “huge jump quarter over quarter in scores revenue” (no number provided)
  • Memory / chips: operating income changes for Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron described as an “astonishing jump” into 2026 (no exact figures in subtitles)
  • Pinterest:
    • Reduced shares outstanding by ~14% in one quarter
    • Company believes it’s undervalued and bought shares
  • Eli Lilly + Merck cancer drug:
    • Mounjaro revenue: $8.7B; “ramp up” into Q1 2026
  • DoorDash / Uber (orders):
    • “orders per day” last quarter: new record high
    • Speaker doubts AI agents will disrupt the model (trend “up and to the right”)
  • Semiconductors valuation note:
    • Nvidia trading at ~19x earnings cited as “still a good risk reward,” though parts of the ecosystem may be expensive

Performance/market commentary via Tom Lee (macro risk framing)

  • Clip included a possible “rolling bear market” in Mag 7 names and other stocks later in the year.
  • Clarification/interpretation:
    • Doesn’t expect Mag 7 and software to be spared in a pullback; suggests that “when everything pulls back, everything goes down.”
    • Mentions sectors can outperform then underperform; some sectors may “stay down and go even lower.”

Tickers / assets / instruments explicitly mentioned

Equities / companies

Pony.ai, Zscaler, Marvell, Salesforce, Snowflake, Synopsys, HPQ (HP Inc.), Dell, UiPath, MongoDB, Costco, Autodesk, SentinelOne, Okta, CoreWeave, PayPal, NVE, Rocket Lab, AMD, Google, SoFi, Micron, Meta, Oscar Health, DLocal, Rubrik, Uber, Robinhood, Netflix, Nvidia, Palantir, Zeta, Shopify, Lemonade, Axon, FICO, Samsung Electro (Samsung Electronics), SK Hynix, Eli Lilly, Merck, DoorDash, ARM, Astera Labs, Credo, plus Broadcom and SpaceX (contextual).

Options / strategies

PayPal bull spread expiring December 2028 (strike levels not provided); covered calls; rolling up; potentially selling puts; mentions LEAPS (not bought previously).

Rates / macro

FOMC; target rate 3.50%–3.75%; 25 bps.

Commodities

  • Oil thresholds: $90, $80

Crypto

  • None mentioned.

Disclosures / disclaimers

  • No explicit “not financial advice” statement appears in the subtitles provided.
  • Options risk note is qualitative (“there’s definitely a lot of risk”); includes recommendation to an educational channel (“TJ the real deal”).

Methodology / frameworks mentioned (step-by-step or repeatable)

Earnings-week monitoring framework

  1. Identify upcoming earnings dates (Tue/Wed/Thu) for a watchlist in cybersecurity/software and AI-adjacent names.
  2. Compare market price action vs. business fundamentals after results.

Portfolio rebalancing framework

  1. When stocks rise: take profits (Rocket Lab/AMD/Google/Micron) to increase cash.
  2. After a potential correction (back half of year): redeploy toward preferred names (SoFi/Uber/Meta-heavy tilt).

Options overlay framework (covered calls)

  1. Sell covered calls on high-flying names.
  2. If approaching strike with 1–2 days left: roll up to continue collecting premium and reduce assignment impact.
  3. If strike implies extreme overvaluation/overbought: rationalize holding via premium collection.

AI “bottlenecks” selection framework

  1. Use team-based supply-chain/AI bottleneck dashboards.
  2. Review 5-day and YTD momentum.
  3. Apply key caution: avoid blindly chasing OTC/small caps without understanding business risks.

Presenters / sources mentioned

  • Tom Lee: referenced bull vs. bear market framing and “Mag 7” headwinds
  • Anthony Noto (CEO of SoFi): Basis Points episode referenced
  • TJ the real deal: options education recommendation
  • “AI Bottlenecks” website/dashboard creator: described as working at Nebius

Original video