Спасители или могильщики? Что ждет Старый Свет под управлением правых

Summary

Political scientist and economist Andrey Shkolnikov argues that Europe squandered its post-Cold War opportunity to become a superpower. He says it weakened its armed forces, offshored much of its high-tech and manufacturing capacity, and became more dependent on external resources. He also criticizes Europe’s energy and climate policies, and argues that cutting economic ties with Russia and losing influence in West Africa further weakened its position.

Shkolnikov says Europe’s decline should be assessed through its long-term capabilities, not just current GDP or other short-term indicators. He identifies military strength and combat readiness, a functioning defense industry, technology and production, access to energy and raw materials, and social cohesion as crucial measures. In his view, Europe is weak across these areas, while its financial system and public finances are also under strain.

He criticizes the EU’s decision-making structure, arguing that consensus rules and equal voting power for countries of very different sizes and influence can lead to paralysis. He favors a system in which representation reflects factors such as population, economic capacity, territory, and military strength. He presents Hungary and Viktor Orbán as examples of a member state being pressured and denied resources by EU institutions.

On whether a right-wing or conservative government could restore order, Shkolnikov doubts that political change alone would be enough. He says a leader pursuing a major reversal would need broad public support, effective police and armed forces, and people willing to enforce unpopular measures. He predicts that economic deterioration, inflation, and cuts to public support could intensify unrest. His discussion of migration and social welfare includes sweeping, often inflammatory claims about migrant communities; these are his assertions, not independently substantiated findings in the subtitles.

Shkolnikov allows that Europe might strengthen its military to some extent, but says rebuilding a capable force and defense industry would take many years. He argues that shortages of resources, personnel, experience, and political will would make that difficult. He therefore considers a substantial European recovery unlikely, describing any improvement as a limited rebound rather than a reversal of decline.

The discussion also briefly touches on the possibility that instability in the United States could make a Latin American or “Ibero-American” political bloc more plausible, and on Shkolnikov’s claim that Europe lacks the infrastructure and technology to compete in artificial intelligence.

Presenters and Contributors

• Andrey Shkolnikov — Political scientist, economist, and geostrategist.
• Interviewer or other speaker — Present in the exchange but not identified in the subtitles.