Alastair Crooke: These Massive Attacks Are Dismantling Everything

Summary

Alastair Crooke argues that conflicts involving Iran, Ukraine, and Yemen should be viewed not as isolated wars but as connected fronts in a broader struggle over US and Western dominance. In his analysis, the strategic objective is to weaken states that resist the Western-led order, with China ultimately remaining the main rival. He therefore doubts the conflicts will be short-lived or resolved through negotiations alone.

Crooke contends that the United States has limited capacity to fight a major war against a peer power, citing constraints in military capability, supply lines, and access to resources. He speculates that some Western policymakers may rely more heavily on European involvement to pressure Russia, potentially creating a dangerous escalation—including the risk of a limited nuclear conflict in Europe.

Iran

Crooke presents a long history of external pressure on Iran, from the 1953 coup against Mohammad Mossadegh through the Iran–Iraq War and successive sanctions. He argues that the US withdrawal from the nuclear deal in 2018, followed by pressure on European banks not to trade with Iran, showed that influential Western actors were not seeking a workable agreement but Iranian capitulation. He also warns that intrusive inspections could be used to undermine Iran’s government and gather intelligence for further attacks.

Shipping and regional pressures

Crooke says the Strait of Hormuz shipping situation has created a broader logistical crisis. He argues that attacks damaging ships’ engine rooms can keep vessels out of service for months, discouraging shipowners from entering the region and reducing the availability of tankers. In his view, this can worsen oil and diesel shortages even when fuel is available elsewhere, because there may be insufficient shipping capacity to move it to the appropriate refineries. He dismisses claims that the disruption is insignificant and says market messaging and trading have not resolved the underlying problem.

He sees a risk of further escalation involving Iran and its allies, including Yemen’s Houthis. Crooke doubts airstrikes would easily defeat the Houthis, given their terrain and defensive position, and says a US campaign could open additional regional fronts. He also highlights the vulnerability of Egypt, where cuts to food subsidies could intensify hardship.

Saudi Arabia, he argues, faces both military and economic pressures. Disrupted oil revenue could make it difficult to pay for imports, forcing a choice between spending foreign-exchange reserves and devaluing its currency. Either option could have wider financial consequences, including for the US bond market and other Gulf states that peg their currencies to the dollar. Crooke also describes Saudi Arabia as facing a difficult political choice over the Houthis’ demands to end the war and restore infrastructure.

Broader economic and political outlook

More broadly, Crooke characterizes the conflict as economic as well as military, with the preservation of dollar and financial hegemony central to US interests. He points to countries’ reduced reliance on the dollar and volatility in bond markets as signs of strain.

His closing argument is that Iran’s civilizational identity and political values make it unlikely to fit into a US-led order, and that expecting it to do so has obscured the deeper, long-running conflict.

These are Crooke’s interpretations and predictions, including several speculative claims about Western strategy and possible escalation.

Presenter/contributor: Alastair Crooke