IISS Manama Dialogue 2026 | Defence, Resilience and Deterrence: Pathways for Defence Doctrine

Summary

The panel argued that modern defence doctrine must integrate military defence, societal resilience and deterrence. Speakers stressed that conflicts in Europe and the Middle East are increasingly connected through trade, energy, technology and shared security threats. Responses and partnerships must therefore cross regional boundaries.

Key perspectives

• Germany’s Deputy Minister, Dr Niels Schmidt, said the traditional distinction between European and Middle Eastern security no longer reflects reality. Defence requires conventional capabilities as well as the ability to address cyber operations, drones, AI, space-based systems and hybrid campaigns. Resilience means protecting infrastructure and institutions, maintaining social cohesion and preserving a state’s ability to act under pressure. Deterrence, he argued, depends on capability, political credibility and clear communication. Germany sees stronger Europe–Middle East dialogue and cooperation as essential.

• Netherlands Chief of Defence, General Onno Eichelsheim, described how a Dutch frigate’s deployment was redirected from the Indo-Pacific towards the Strait of Hormuz, illustrating the need for forces that can adapt quickly. He linked European and Gulf security, citing maritime routes and cooperation between Russia and Iran. He called for greater information-sharing and coordination on maritime security, more affordable air and missile defence, and expanded production of both high-end and low-cost systems. The Netherlands aims for unmanned systems to deliver more than half of its military effects within five years. He also argued that resilient societies and military strength can support diplomacy rather than oppose it.

• Finland’s Under Secretary of State, Utti Holopainen, outlined a defensive model based on conscription, a large trained reserve and “comprehensive security”: cooperation among government, businesses, NGOs and citizens to keep society functioning during crises. Finland’s own defence remains central, while NATO membership reinforces it. The EU’s role is complementary, particularly on industry, resilience and hybrid threats. Holopainen said Finland’s approach attracts international interest, though its success partly depends on a broader culture of cooperation that may not transfer wholesale to other countries.

• Iraq’s National Security Advisor, Qasim al-Araji, argued that weapons and deterrence alone cannot prevent conflict; unresolved disputes and their root causes must also be addressed. He called for investment in vulnerable areas, international cooperation and stronger intelligence-sharing. He described Iraq’s post-2003 doctrine as focused on good-neighbourly relations and preventing Iraqi territory from being used to attack other states. Iraq, he said, seeks neutrality and is rebuilding its defence capacity while continuing counterterrorism cooperation. He also urged Gulf states to deepen ties and invest in Iraq.

Discussion and answers

Questions addressed Russian activity in the Black Sea, military AI oversight, Finland’s resilience model, European naval commitments, defence-industrial capacity, and Iraq’s relations with Turkey and the Gulf.

German and Dutch representatives said human oversight must remain central to military AI. Schmidt described Germany’s interagency approach to hybrid threats and pointed to NATO’s role in the Black Sea, alongside resilience measures and diplomatic efforts to protect shipping. Eichelsheim said European maritime operations need stronger, more reliable contributions. He also argued that drone production requires both ongoing industry contracts and the capacity to scale up quickly. Holopainen said Finland shares experience of its resilience model with visiting partners and contributes to regional peacekeeping and maritime cooperation.

Al-Araji said Iraq was seeking the withdrawal of Turkish forces and expected progress on armed groups in Sinjar. He described a phased plan to bring weapons under state control, with June given as a target deadline and sanctions possible for groups that do not comply. He also said Iraq would be willing to mediate between Iran and Gulf states if invited, and again called for stronger Gulf engagement and investment.

The panel did not provide a substantive response to the question about changing European discussions of nuclear deterrence.

Presenters and contributors

Moderator: Bastian (surname not stated in the subtitles)

Panelists: Dr Niels Schmidt; General Onno Eichelsheim; Utti Holopainen; Qasim al-Araji

Audience contributors: Anna (Romania); Hussein Dabbas (United States); Mayar Rashid (Iraq); Fenella McGerty (United Kingdom); Michael von der Beek (Germany); Abdullah bin Khalifa Al Khalifa (Bahrain); Badr Al-Saif (Kuwait); Hugh Williams (United Kingdom); Christian Wuga (Denmark); Maria Luisa Fantappiè (Italy); Ben Schreer; Daniel Salisbury