STOCKS & CRYPTO I’M BUYING, HOLDING & SELLING THIS WEEK | Portfolio Update | August 10, 2026

Finance-focused summary (Aug 10, 2026 Portfolio Update)

Macro / Market view & framework

• Bitcoin (monthly/weekly technical “wave”/signal)
  • Claims a “bottoming signal” has historically marked bear-market bottoms since 2015.
  • Interprets current positioning as within ~10–20% of the bottom; not expecting a day-trade bounce.
  • Emphasizes a 1–2 year accumulation/bull-run window once higher-timeframe signals turn.
  • Key historical references (used to justify the framework):
    • 2015: ~$232 → $20,000 (≈ 100x)
    • 2017–2018: ~$3,500 to ~70,000 (≈ 20x)
    • 2021 pullback: from ~60,000 down to ~16,000
    • 2023–2025: described move ~16,000 to ~125 over ~2 years
    • Current context: weekly top cited around $120 and said to be about -55% from the top; mentions potentially 50–55 as a lower bound to avoid panic.
• Sector rotation / relative weakness
  • Argues crypto (and Bitcoin) is the weak sector relative to tech/other sectors hitting highs.
  • Views this as a setup to accumulate while markets are fearful.

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Portfolio actions / trading rules (methodology explicitly stated)

• Core rules (chart-signal based, average down, take profits)
  • Uses buy/sell triggers based on “dots”:
    • Buy “green dots” on weekly/monthly.
    • Expects:
      • Buy/average down if price declines significantly.
      • Sell/trim on “red dot” signals.
  • Averaging down rule: add more if the position declines 20% or more.
  • Profit-taking on signals: if a weekly “up/red” signal appears, reduces 25% to 100% (trim or fully exit depending on follow-through).
  • Discipline requirement: “time + plan”; not a “get-rich-quick” or day-trading approach.
• Time horizon
  • Long-term bias: 5–10 years for the strategy mindset.
  • Also references a 6 months to 1–2 years window for alt selections.

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Crypto & crypto-adjacent holdings / views (tickers, key levels, actions)

• Bitcoin (BTC)
  • Accumulation target; bullish over 6–24 months.
  • Not timing the exact bottom; okay with another 10–15% dip.
• INJ (Injective)
  • Bullish while above $4; waiting for a green dot.
  • Mentions avg cost around $5.15.
• NAVX (Navx)
  • Small position; utility lending protocol on Sui.
  • Holding until the next wave signal (no numeric targets provided).
• SUI ecosystem / SUI
  • Mentions SUI has been flat/frustrating.
  • Wants it to reclaim ~$0.80.
• XRP
  • Owns a position; sees ~$1 as a good price.
  • Wants a weekly green dot.
  • Risk level cited around $0.82–$0.83 (set stop loss “probably around 82”).
• ATOM (Cosmos)
  • Staking emphasis.
  • Claims ~20% APY staking reward on Coinbase.
  • Treats rewards as dividend-like; reinvests via auto-restake.
• ENA
  • Stablecoin-related play; holds position.
  • Macro catalyst timing risk: Clarity Act delayed to September.
• MORO (Morpho)
  • Bullish but ranging.
  • Wants breakout over ~$220.
  • Notes a band roughly $160–$220 and looks for a green dot.
• CIRCLE
  • Bullish; closed with a green dot last week.
  • Prior signal cited from ~$58 to ~$140.
• AXEL and XCN
  • Staking income trades.
  • Claims ~30% APY staking for XCN (and mentions Axel also staked).
• UNI / Uniswap
  • Bullish above ~$3.19; current level around $3.95.
  • No red dot yet.
• SOXS (semiconductor short ETF)
  • Mentioned under equities/shorts (used as a short).

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Equities & ETFs (tickers, key levels, catalysts, targets)

• SOXS (semiconductor short ETF)
  • Bearish on semis.
  • Expects semis to retrace toward 200 EMAs / 4-year moving averages (mean reversion).
• PATH (UiPath)
  • Strong run; mentions entry around $11.
  • Waiting for a sell signal; potential sale range $17–$19.
  • Notes potential earnings in September.
• ISRG (Intuitive Surgical)
  • Bought around $400; added near $350 after earnings strength then sell-off.
  • Plan: hold until the wave returns and gives a red dot (no numeric target stated).
• BABA (Alibaba)
  • Buy area cited around $90–$100.
  • Sell signal referenced around $100–$106 (prior buy logic).
  • Near-term catalyst: earnings ~Aug 20.
• PLUME
  • Real-world asset play; bought around ~$0.015 and added at another penny-level.
  • Waiting for red dot to take profits.
• ORCL (Oracle)
  • Bought/signal around ~$120; at ~$150 and “ripping.”
  • Waiting for sell signal (red dot).
• MEGA E (small-cap noted in transcript as listed on Robinhood)
  • Mentions break-even and prior sale at ~$140.
  • Target zone $180–$200 using Fibonacci (course indicator per transcript).
• AVAV (AeroVironment)
  • Holding; saw red dot around 50 cents; looking for green dot.
• GIS (General Mills)
  • Dividend stock: ~8% dividend.
  • Bullish around $34+.
• SMCI (Super Micro Computer)
  • Holding.
  • Earnings cited as tomorrow (immediate catalyst) and “signal present.”
• NVO (Novo Nordisk)
  • Bullish on monthly chart.
  • Mentions MACD crossover and earnings strength:
    • last time revenue beaten by ~11%.
  • Holds above ~$43.
• STLA (Stellantis)
  • Long-term value view: cited $5 low since 2013 and “13-year support.”
  • Mentions earnings scale (stated as “~$50B per quarter”).
  • Says after drawdown from $30 to $5 he’s a buyer.
• LINK (Chainlink)
  • Fundamental-utility bullish.
  • Wants monthly “dot” to pop (claims it popped over the weekend).
  • Historical reference: $56 → $30 (framed as a large % move; stated as “500% move”).
• SOFI (SoFi)
  • Range-bound: ~$20 down to ~$15 for months; positioned near a four-year moving average.
  • Buy logic: buy at/below the mean, not far above it.
  • Mentions sentiment: previously near $33, now ~mid-teens; likes above $15.
• KMBB (Kimberly-Clark; referenced as “Kleenex company”)
  • Dividend play.
  • Key level: hold $104 or exit if it breaks.
• NKE (Nike)
  • Conditional bullish: hold as long as it holds $39.
  • Mentions large drawdown: ~$190 down to ~$42.
• CAKE (Pancake)
  • Choppy/consolidation; framed as stability rather than breakdown.
  • Expecting potential breakout (no exact target stated).
• Other items mentioned
  • DJT (Truth Social): bottom cited around ~$7, watching for bounce and potential move to ~$22; monthly green dot noted.
  • Intel: described as bearish with a put; “dot is red” and trading below the 9 EMA.
  • Grab Holdings: reported Q2 revenue growth of 22% and “record profits.”
  • PayPal (PYPL): still holds options; merger talk failed; expects potential move toward ~$74.
  • GoodRx (GDRX): trim plan due to extension; red dot on 4-hour; potential move back to ~$5; profit-taking depends on holding around $3.50.

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Risk management / cautions

• Stop-loss guidance
  • Explicit example: for the AV “red dot” context, he says he’ll set stop loss around $82.
  • Notes red dots can mean take some off or set stop loss.
• Earnings/event awareness
  • Highlights near-term earnings windows:
    • BABA (~Aug 20)
    • PATH (September)
    • SMCI (tomorrow)
• No certainty on bottom
  • Repeats that the bottom is not guaranteed.
  • The strategy relies on signals and time, not “timing exact seconds.”

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Disclosures / logistics

• Not formal financial advice (legal framing)
  • Not presented as professional financial advice; framed as information sharing rather than directives to buy/sell.
• Discord + course
  • Mentions a Discord community used for signals/trades.
  • The strategy is documented in a free trading course.

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Tickers / instruments mentioned

Crypto & related

BTC, INJ, NAVX, SUI, XRP, ATOM, ENA, MORO (Morpho), CIRCLE, UNI (Uniswap), SOXS (ETF used as short), AXEL, XCN, LINK, AVAV, ARROW, DJT (stock mentioned in transcript), Cake/CAKE (plus Ethereum/ETH mentioned in “context”/captions as stated).

Equities & ETFs

SOXS, AMD, NVIDIA, Intel, PATH, ISRG, BABA, PLUME, ORCL, MEGA E, GIS, SMCI, NVO, STLA, NKE, KMBB, SOFI, AVAV, DJT, PYPL, GDRX, Grab Holdings, Uber (and others mentioned as chart-request examples).

Note: Some tickers appear ambiguously due to subtitle/auto-caption issues (e.g., “AVAV” and other crypto labels).

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Presenters / sources

• Presenter: “Overkill Trading” (single host/speaker).
• Sources mentioned:
  • His charting/community signal process (including the Discord).
  • A free trading course documenting the approach.
  • A GoFundMe posted by “Jeff” for wildfire victims.