Что ожидать от переговоров в этот раз?

Summary

The video examines whether the announced Russia–Ukraine–US talks in Abu Dhabi could produce progress. Presenter Alexander Shtefanov argues that rising media optimism should be treated cautiously. Although many Russians reportedly want an agreement, earlier signals from Moscow were followed by continued attacks, and the Kremlin has not indicated that negotiations would require a pause in military operations.

Oleshky evacuation

A temporary ceasefire around Oleshky enabled a humanitarian evacuation. Shtefanov describes it as an unusual example of cooperation: Russian state-media figures praised the operation, and people evacuated from the town largely chose to go to Ukraine.

He suggests that international pressure—including attention from the US and the Vatican—may have helped bring about the evacuation. Reports of prior contacts between Russian and Ukrainian intelligence remain unconfirmed. In Shtefanov’s view, the episode shows that practical agreements may be possible, but does not signal a broader truce.

Diplomatic efforts and Europe’s role

The new diplomatic effort began with discussions involving Ukrainian, US, and European representatives, followed by Steve Witkoff’s meeting with Vladimir Putin. Reported US proposals included resuming Russian energy exports to Europe through Ukraine, discussing a timetable for sanctions relief, and considering a wider European security arrangement.

Shtefanov doubts that economic incentives alone would change Putin’s position. He also notes that Russian officials downplayed the usefulness of Ukraine’s and Europe’s proposals, even as they agreed to resume trilateral talks.

The video highlights Europe’s effort to gain a role in negotiations. Finnish President Alexander Stubb and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre are presented as potential intermediaries, but the Kremlin appears reluctant to let European representatives participate directly. Shtefanov argues that Europe’s leverage is complicated by electoral shifts and debate over the scale of continued aid to Ukraine.

Prospects for direct talks

Zelensky has repeatedly called for direct talks with Putin. Putin’s stated position is that a meeting should follow detailed agreement on terms. Although a possible summit setting is mentioned, Shtefanov considers a meeting uncertain.

Disputed terms and past negotiations

Shtefanov argues that the central dispute remains territory and Ukraine’s future security. Russia has sought Ukrainian territorial concessions, limits on Ukraine’s military, and restrictions on Western involvement. Ukraine has emphasized a ceasefire along current lines and reliable security guarantees.

The presenter notes that Ukrainian public opinion may accept some compromises, but support for surrendering Kyiv-held parts of Donbas remains limited. The video also discusses past opportunities for a settlement, including the 2022 Istanbul talks and later reported proposals, as missed or incompatible chances.

Conclusion

Shtefanov is skeptical that the talks will produce a breakthrough. He believes Putin may see an advantage in prolonging the war and may use negotiations partly to improve Russia’s image among Western audiences rather than to reach a settlement. He cautions that a breakthrough should not be expected, while acknowledging that he could be wrong.

Presenters and contributors

• Presenter: Alexander Shtefanov
• Quoted or featured contributors: Yevgeny Popov, Vladimir Solovyov, Mykhailo Podolyak, Dmytro Kuleba, Petro Poroshenko, Alexander Stubb, Alexander Lukashenko, Volodymyr Zelensky, Donald Trump, unnamed Oleshky residents, and a Newsmax correspondent.