2026 Midterms and the battle for Congress, with Amy Walter and Liam Donovan

Summary

Ian Bremmer speaks with Amy Walter of the Cook Political Report and Republican strategist Liam Donovan about the 2026 midterms and what a possible Democratic victory could mean.

• The House and Senate are different contests. Democrats need a net gain of only three seats to take the House, which Walter sees as the likelier outcome. The Senate is harder: Democrats would need to win in strongly Republican states such as Ohio, Alaska, Texas, or Iowa. Democrats currently have an advantage, but the result is uncertain, especially if less-engaged Republican voters turn out. Donovan likewise argues that the Senate map gives Republicans a chance to hold on narrowly.

• Turnout and Trump’s role could shape close races. Walter points to an enthusiasm gap favoring Democrats. Donovan says Trump can still help Republicans by motivating less-regular voters in places where he is more popular than the party overall. He advises candidates not to make a late, generic break with Trump; distancing may work when a candidate already has an independent identity or when a specific local issue calls for it.

• Affordability is dominating the campaign. Walter says Democrats should keep their message focused on the cost of living, the Iran war, and corruption—including the perception that officeholders and powerful interests benefit while ordinary people bear the costs. She argues that cultural attacks and warnings about socialism have not displaced voters’ immediate concerns about prices. Donovan agrees that Republicans must acknowledge economic pain rather than insist conditions are good. He says candidates can point to local accomplishments and argue that corporations and Democratic opponents contribute to high costs.

• The war and rising fuel prices are major Republican liabilities. Walter says frustration over the war, gas and diesel prices, and the economy could keep Republican-leaning voters at home or push some toward Democrats. Donovan calls the Iran conflict a particularly damaging development for Republicans, alongside earlier concerns about tariffs, the economy, and immigration enforcement. He says Republicans are trying to direct voters’ anger toward Democrats and corporations, but that strategy may depend on the individual race.

• A Democratic Congress would constrain Trump mainly through oversight. Walter notes that Trump has relied heavily on executive authority, so losing Congress would not automatically stop him from pursuing policy. However, Democratic control could slow his administration through hearings, investigations, and other oversight. She also warns that Democratic voters will expect more than opposition to Trump: they want action on political-system reform and corruption.

• A strong Democratic result could influence both parties’ next steps. Donovan says a decisive Democratic win might reinforce the party’s inclination to keep resisting Trump rather than seek compromises, while also raising expectations for results that may be difficult to deliver with Trump still in office. He expects Republicans to remain on a populist, working-class trajectory, with JD Vance a likely contender for the 2028 nomination, rather than returning to a pre-Trump direction.

• The 2028 Democratic nominee is harder to predict. Walter expects a candidate who can appeal across the party’s coalitions by combining calls for significant change with limits that reassure more moderate voters. She says the political moment will shape who emerges, and that Kamala Harris’s prospects will become clearer if she returns to campaigning.

Presenters and Contributors

• Ian Bremmer — Host
• Amy Walter — Editor-in-chief, Cook Political Report
• Liam Donovan — Republican strategist