Video summary

Backtesting my 85% win rate trading strategy

Main summary

Key takeaways

Finance

Overview (Finance-specific backtest walkthrough)

The speaker demonstrates a weekly, rules-based futures trading backtest using the LCE model (“Level, Confirmation, Execution”) with a level-to-level breakout approach (i.e., no mean reversion).

They trade ES futures during regular market hours (9:30 a.m.–4:00 p.m. ET; often done before noon) for the week Nov 3–Nov 7.

Instruments Mentioned

  • ES futures (E-mini S&P 500 futures)

(No other tickers/ETFs/commodities/bonds/crypto mentioned.)

Core Methodology: LCE Level-to-Level Breakout System

Rules

  1. Level-to-level only (LCE framework)

    • Components: Level → Confirmation → Execution
    • Rule: Every trade must follow LCE and be a level-to-level setup.

  2. Trade only during regular market hours

    • 9:30 a.m.–4:00 p.m. ET
    • Practically: stop before noon.

  3. Breakouts only

    • Long: only on a break of supply to the next level above
    • Short: only on a break of demand to the next level below
    • Avoid trading through the middle of ranges when no level breaks occur.

  4. Fixed risk on every trade

    • No position size changes.

Daily (timeframe) process

  1. 1-hour cloud: determine overall trend/bias
  2. 30-minute + 15-minute clouds: refine bias (confirm or neutralize)
  3. 5-minute chart: map the two breakout possibilities
    • break supply (long) vs. break demand (short)
  4. Set alerts at the key supply/demand levels, then wait off-screen
  5. Confirmation: ensure breakout direction matches higher-timeframe bias
  6. Execution details
    • Entry: around the middle of the level zone
    • Stop: placed above/between zones (often above the cloud or above market structure; roughly halfway between current and next levels)
    • Target: the next demand/supply level for one clean level-to-level move

Risk management adjustment (when stopped out / losing conditions)

  • If the move reaches 50–60% of the intended distance in favor, the stop is moved to break-even to protect gains (or make the trade effectively risk-free).
  • If stopped: allowed up to two trades per day.

Macro / Regime Context Used

Bias is derived from cloud slope/shape across timeframes:

  • Mildly sloping down / bearish clouds: primary bias for shorts
  • Flat clouds: no directional edge
    • Increase importance of waiting for a real breakout (avoid range trading traps)
  • Long setups: avoided until higher-timeframe clouds flip/turn bullish

Week Backtest: Nov 3–Nov 7 and Outcomes

Common daily rule

  • Set alerts at two levels (upper supply and lower demand), then execute only if one breaks.

Monday (Nov 3)

Higher-timeframe read

  • 1-hour: mildly sloping down → mild bearish bias
  • 30-min & 15-min: mostly flat/neutral
  • 5-min: defines two breakout plans

Trade

  • Alert hit bottom demand
  • Short entry near the middle of the demand zone
  • Stop: in the middle of the two zones, above current cloud
  • Target: next demand zone

Result: price moved straight to target → one successful breakout trade.

Tuesday (Nov 4)

Bias

  • 1-hour: sharply bearish
  • 30-minute: thick blanket of resistance → bearish
  • 15-minute: bearish → conclusion: only shorts, no longs against momentum

Trade behavior

  • Early bounce looked bullish, but higher timeframes stayed bearish → avoid long
  • Repeat setup at next supply/demand levels
  • Price broke into demand → short
    • Stop: above the cloud
    • Target: next demand level

Result: one green trade.

Wednesday (Nov 5)

Bias weakening

  • 1-hour: still firmly bearish, but flattening/curving up
  • 30-min: flat / price moving above
  • 15-min: flat (more neutral than earlier bearish) → bearish edge weaker / more balanced conditions

Trades

  • Price broke above supply sharply
  • Two long approaches discussed:
    • Enter immediately (riskier because higher timeframe not fully bullish)
    • Be patient until the next level after confirmation develops
  • Chosen: wait → later hit upper level; 15-min cloud begins sloping upward
  • Long execution
    • Stop: under market structure
    • Target: next supply level

Result: two long opportunities existed, but the plan only becomes “better” after confirmation; realized trade is described as a long after the picture improved.

Thursday (Nov 6)

Regime

  • All timeframes flat (1H/30M/15M/5M flat) → no directional bias

Approach

  • Prepare both scenarios
  • Ensure full breakout (avoid range traps)

Trade

  • “Nice sharp drop” with a cloud flip
  • Short
    • Stop: above market structure, about halfway between two levels
    • Target: next level

Result: win; additional shorts existed later (“plenty of moves”).

Friday (Nov 7)

Bias

  • 1H/30M/15M: bearish with heavy downside slope → primary plan: short only

Trades

  1. First short after sharp drop
    • Result: stopped out (loss)
  2. Risk management / daily limit
    • If price moved 50–60% in favor, stop would have been moved to break-even
    • System allows two trades per day, so a second attempt is permitted
  3. Second attempt
    • Price hits alert quickly → short
    • Stop: above the high
    • Target: next demand level

Result: week ends after completing the second trade logic.

Key Cautions / Recommendations

  • Do not force trades: only take breakout level-to-level setups aligned with higher-timeframe bias.
  • Avoid longs when higher-timeframe clouds are bearish (even if intraday price looks bullish).
  • When clouds are flat, expect range behavior and demand confirmed breakouts.
  • Maintain risk consistency and follow the max two trades per day rule.
  • Use break-even at 50–60% progress to reduce giving back winners.

Disclosures / Disclaimers

  • “Nothing here is financial advice.”
  • “If you use it, do it at your own risk and size properly.”

Presenter / Sources

  • Presenter: The video speaker/trader (name not provided in the subtitles)
  • Source framework: LCE model / LCE Accelerator program (speaker’s own framework; no external cited sources)

Original video