BLUE MEGA-TSUNAMI | The Kyle Kulinski Show

2026 Midterm Outlook

Kyle Kulinski argues that polling and early-voting indicators point to a major Democratic advantage in the 2026 midterms, while cautioning viewers not to assume the outcome is settled.

Polling and district trends

A private memo from the Democratic House Majority PAC reportedly found that 13 districts won by Donald Trump in 2024 by 8–21 points are now competitive, with Democrats tied or ahead in half of them. Kulinski highlights North Carolina’s 9th District, where he says Democratic candidate Richard Ojeda is in a dead heat despite Trump having carried the district by 16 points.

Citing CNN analyst Harry Enten, Kulinski says Trump’s net approval is at a record low in the Reuters/Ipsos poll and similarly weak in several other polls. He also points to a New York Times/Siena poll showing:

• Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot by 11 points.
• Trump’s approval rating at 36%.
• Declining support for Trump among nonwhite voters, with support also weakening among white voters.

In issue polling, Democrats reportedly lead Republicans on health care, cost of living, gas prices, foreign wars, the economy, immigration, corruption, and artificial intelligence.

Early voting and other indicators

Kulinski cites early-voting results showing Democrats ahead in Nevada by 8,700 votes. He also points to polling that gives Democrats a 10-point advantage among voters certain to vote, which he describes as unusually favorable compared with the past four decades.

Other indicators he discusses include:

• The share of Republicans who strongly approve of Trump falling to 39%, down from 64% earlier in his presidency.
• A model comparing primary turnout with House-vote preferences placing Democrats at roughly +11, ahead of the benchmarks set in 2006 and 2018.

Potential consequences and caveats

Kulinski says Republican efforts to redraw Texas’s congressional map could backfire if South Texas voting patterns shift toward Democrats, potentially turning intended Republican gains into vulnerable or Democratic-leaning seats.

He characterizes the broader trends as evidence of a possible Democratic “mega-tsunami,” with states such as Kansas, Iowa, and Nebraska potentially becoming competitive. He also discusses how polling errors could affect the Senate outlook: a Republican-favoring error might leave Republicans with only a narrow Senate edge, while recent special-election polling errors that underestimated Democrats could lead to a much larger Democratic victory.

Kulinski closes by urging viewers to vote, favoring early in-person voting where available, and warning against complacency.

Presenters and contributors

• Kyle Kulinski — Host
• Harry Enten — CNN analyst featured in a clip