Video summary

10 Stocks To Buy Before The Next Bull Run

Main summary

Key takeaways

Finance

Macro / Market view & valuation framework

  • Target & timeline: Believes Nifty 50 will reach 30,000 in ~18–24 months (also referenced as “should get there in the next 18 months”).
  • Valuation argument (Indian market “fairly cheap” vs recent years):
    • Nifty P/E ~21, described as ~5% cheaper than the average over the last 10 years.
    • P/E has been cooling while earnings growth rose, cited as the core reason for optimism.
  • EPS & P/E explanation:
    • 2021–22 EPS jump attributed largely to a methodology shift: EPS moved from standalone to consolidated (impact estimated ~20%).
    • Even after this, the narrative supported a post-COVID earnings recovery and faster earnings growth.
    • P/E fell from ~40 to ~33 “overnight” due to the EPS calculation change.
    • Since then valuations cooled from ~22.92 (31st of March 2024) to ~19.9.
  • Narrative/cycle caution:
    • Notes that global narratives rotate (mentions absence of oil / AI / rare earth in earlier periods).
    • Still argues that markets without “all of that” can perform—implying fundamentals/valuation matter more than narratives.

Disclosures / performance claim

  • Not financial advice: Explicit “not financial advice” phrasing was not clearly present; the text implies a standard caution (e.g., “do your own research” style language for small/microcaps).
  • Report performance (claimed):
    • Report dated 1st June.
    • If ₹10,000 invested in each of the 10 stocks (₹1 lakh total):
      • Claimed growth to ₹1,14,000 = +14% absolute over ~70+ days.
    • Video date stated as 10th August.

Step-by-step / methodology elements used

  • Market timing via relative valuation:
    • Compare current index P/E vs 10-year history.
    • Cross-check earnings growth trend vs P/E trend (P/E cooling + EPS growth = positive).
  • Stock selection style:
    • Prefer “core portfolio” holdings; avoid “get-rich-quick” small/mid caps chasing.
    • Use valuation discounts (vs historical/median P/E) and business quality (e.g., diversification, moat-like distribution, “AI beneficiary” orderbook).
    • For certain small/microcaps: emphasize zero debt and a specific growth theme (e.g., health foods, pharma CDMO).
    • Risk lens: call out when sentiment is driven by temporary factors (e.g., gold price moves; confidential client stop-buy; AI sentiment vs actual earnings).

Stocks recommended/held (10-stock list)

(No formal allocation weights provided beyond “mix of four mid-caps and large/small caps,” and Senco Gold being sold.)

1) Rashi Peripherals

  • Business: Hardware/software distribution; ~80–90% revenue from hardware. Distributes equipment into products: laptops, desktops, servers, storage, network equipment, gaming peripherals, screens.
  • Clients mentioned: HP, Asus, Dell, Lenovo, Nvidia.
  • Valuation / recommendation:
    • Bought when valuation was ~P/E 12.
    • Now trading at ~P/E 17–18.
    • Not sold; described as “good buy even at this price,” hold long term.

2) HDFC Bank

  • Core thesis (discount + conglomerate valuation):
    • Trading at ~P/E 14.3 vs 10-year historic median ~22.5 (~40% discount).
  • Valuation decomposition mentioned:
    • 74% stake in NBFC: HDB Financial Services (described as IPO-listed “massive discount”).
    • HDFC AMC, where HDFC holds 52%.
    • Claims upside from these businesses flows into HDFC Bank value.
  • Business mix & fee income:
    • Loan book: ~30% from housing finance (lower-margin but diversified).
    • Other exposures: corporate/wholesale, small & mid-market, business banking, commercial vehicle financing.
    • Non-interest income/fee income diversification:
      • ~33% of non-fee income from loan processing and credit cards.
      • Additional contribution from SCA (savings/current account) charges.
    • Third-party distribution tied to mutual fund/products (bulk linked to HDFC AMC).
  • Performance caution noted: “Bored” factor—last 5-year return for HDFC ~2%; suggests bank is “here to stay” and expects long-term compounding.

3) Senco Gold (sold; still described as a buy)

  • Status: Stated as the only stock sold from the 10-stock report.
  • Business: Jewelry focused in Eastern India (mainly West Bengal); expanding into North India.
  • Distribution model: 36% revenue from franchisee model, >200 outlets.
  • Valuation: Trading at about P/E ~11; compared unfavorably to Titan (P/E >60) and Kalyan Jewelers.
  • Key risk factor (explicit):
    • Gold price decline pressured results.
    • Company does not hedge all gold holdings (unlike some larger peers), so results can move with gold prices.
  • Speculative element acknowledged: Belief that gold will keep rising is called out as somewhat speculative.
  • Other thesis: Organized jewelry growth; dominant eastern positioning; focus on higher-margin diamond/studded jewelry.

4) Infosys (IT services / AI beneficiaries thesis)

  • Valuation setup: Trading below his recommended level (one of only two stocks in the list below his buy price).
    • Median P/E cited ~25; current P/E ~15–15.5.
  • AI sentiment rebuttal with earnings/orderbook:
    • Claims quarter-wise sales growth up:
      • June quarter +14%
      • Prior quarter +13.5%
      • Mentions earlier quarters with figures: 88.9 / 8.5 / 7.54% (subtitle ambiguity, but asserts consistent growth).
    • Stock price falling despite earnings growth.
  • Order book strength:
    • States AI-driven automation deals from overseas; deal values at all-time high.
    • Notes order book not instantly translating into net profit (time lag).
  • FX headwind as positive: Mentions high US dollar is a big positive for these companies.
  • Explicit stance: Not a “reverse AI trade”; bet is pure fundamentals and fundamentals staying supported.
  • Price implication (no target, but expectation):
    • Even if earnings grow slower or flat, argues stocks should be ~30–40% higher than current levels.
    • Mentions current price around ₹1170–₹1160; would be ₹1600–₹1650 under his logic (“no improvement needed”).

5) Proventus Agro Corp (microcap)

  • Scale / risk disclosure: Market cap < ₹600 crores; explicitly says “do your own research” and notes high volatility risk.
  • Business: Shift from commodity trading to branded packaged foods:
    • Dry fruits, nuts, seeds, healthy snacks (including makhana).
  • Risk management / balance sheet: Zero debt.
  • Growth & financial metrics:
    • Branded products business growth: ~33%, cited at ~₹260–₹280 crores (H1 of last year).
    • Mentions revenue growth ~50%.
    • Says ROE improving.
  • Valuation: Mentions P/E around 40–42, but says it’s cheaper than big FMCG players like Britannia, Nestle, HUL.
  • Price references: Bought around ₹710–₹720; “today” trading around ₹1720 (subtitle contains some inconsistent intermediate figures).

6) ITC (Indian Tobacco Company) (core / “boring” large cap)

  • Thesis: Underperformance over last 2–3 years linked to concerns about stake sale/supply pressure and budget tax/GST increases on cigarettes.
  • Business durability:
    • Claims ~4 out of 5 cigarettes sold in India.
    • Revenue mix: ~45% from FMCG cigarettes and ~27–28% from FMCG other brands.
    • Segmental profit claim: ~85% of net profit still from cigarettes (stable across decades).
  • Cash return: Mentions adding about ~5.15% dividend yearly on top of stock returns.
  • Risk note on regulation: GST/taxes on cigarettes increased; says hikes mostly pass to consumers, and volumes should remain resilient due to cigarettes being “aspirational.”
  • Accounting/expense attribution insight:
    • Mentions ITC does not report segmental expenses (SEBI guideline).
    • Notes cigarette-point-of-sale advertising constraints and how expenses may be allocated to non-cigarette FMCG—supports the view that structure benefits the conglomerate.

7) Windlas Biotech (CDMO / India-specific)

  • Scale: Market cap about ₹1,700 crores.
  • Balance sheet: Zero debt.
  • Business: CDMO (contract development & manufacturing); exports only ~4% → predominantly India-focused.
  • Clients mentioned: Cipla, Sun Pharma, Torrent Pharmaceuticals, Mankind, Abbott, Pfizer, Sanofi (India units).
  • Capacity utilization & expansion:
    • Current utilization ~65%.
    • Additional capacity ~35% more built for injectables.
    • Believes injectables growth in India will be a key driver.
  • Valuation: Trading around ₹26–₹27 (as stated).
  • Theme: Pharma as a favored sector; believes India can do “IT and pharma” well.

8) Tata Technologies (engineering services / IPO context)

  • IPO details: IPO in Nov 2023, oversubscribed ~69 times.
  • Valuation history referenced:
    • At IPO time: ~₹1240; then-view: overpriced around ₹1200–₹1210; valuation ~82–83x (P/E multiple mentioned).
    • Says he would buy at half price; average buy price ~₹687.
  • Current status: Trading around ₹873 (still above his buy price).
  • Clients & exposure:
    • Tata Motors, JLR (group clients)
    • Airbus, VinFast, McLaren, Honda
  • Thesis: Research/engineering for technology and automation; expects demand from automotive tech + home automation trends.
  • Return expectation: Keep accumulating below ₹1,000; expects 3–5x move in 3–5 years (“would not surprise”).

9) Piramal Pharma (CDMO turnaround/momentum)

  • Story type: Momentum + turnaround, leaning to “market punished it, should normalize.”
  • Issue cited: A confidential global innovator stopped buying due to excess capacity for an on-patent drug; company couldn’t name the client.
  • Sales trend (timelines with %):
    • Refers to four quarters from June 2025 till March 2026.
    • Mentions revenue fell into negative territory, but June 2026 up ~18%, attributed to weak base from June 2025.
  • Why still invest:
    • CDMO strengths; regulatory record strong.
    • Highlighted areas: injectables (sterile), ADC manufacturing.
    • Says company has “no problem with funding” projects.
  • Price context: Mentions stock may have moved ~15–20% from original buy price; still recommends considering buying at current levels.

10) Gala Precision Engineering (springs/fasteners for renewables)

  • Scale: Market cap about ₹1,300 crores.
  • Price context: Recommended around ₹900–₹910; now ₹1,050–₹1,060 (~10–12% run-up).
  • Business: Springs and fastening systems—“mission critical” components for heavy machinery (e.g., disc springs, spiral springs, high tensile fasteners, wedge lockers, anchor bolts).
  • Growth driver: Renewables—used in wind turbines, solar infrastructure, battery storage, and heavy industrial equipment.
  • EV/power grid angle: Framed as part of the “next EV play” for India’s power grid; renewables capex drives demand.
  • Valuation: P/E about ~35; argues justified if revenue growth keeps pace.

Portfolio conclusion / explicit recommendation style

  • Claims he continues to hold all 10 stocks except Senco Gold.
  • Reiterates these are for “next 5 to 10 years, maybe longer.”
  • Urges investors to stop chasing small/mid-cap get-rich-quick and build a core portfolio including Infosys, HDFC, ITC as top core buys despite poor recent performance.

Presenters / sources

  • Presenter: Unnamed individual (speaks as “me” throughout; no name given in subtitles).
  • External sources: No external sources are explicitly named; references include “an article recently” (not cited).

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