Top 5 Weekly Options Plays + BONUS Plays (July 6 - July 10)

Finance-focused summary (July 6–July 10 options wheel plays)

Strategy focus: “Wheel” using short put options

Core idea/recommendation

• Sell short put options (with weekly expirations emphasized) to collect premium.
• If assigned, the plan is to hold shares and then sell covered calls (wheel framework implied).

Stated rationale

• Generate income with “favorite stocks” while limiting risk (per speaker framing).
• “Time management” claim: about 15 minutes/day.
• Consistency/win-rate claim: ~95% of trades keep premium if the rules are followed.

Risks/cautions/disclosures

• No explicit “not financial advice” disclaimer appears in the subtitles.
• For 2x leverage products (example: MEU), the speaker cautions to not play too heavily, since they can create oversized risk.

---

Macro / market setup for the week (why these plays)

Market breadth & technical tone

• S&P 500: Holding above moving averages and support; “no major red flags.”
• Sector rotation / breadth expansion:
  • Semiconductors fell hard earlier in July, while other sectors improved.
  • Consumer staples and consumer cyclicals are strong (exception noted: Tesla down).
  • Financials near/all-time highs; Healthcare strong; Utilities recovering.
  • Market breadth indicators:
    • 63% of S&P stocks above the 20-day EMA
    • ~60% above the 50-day EMA
    • ~59% above the 200-day EMA
  • Speaker interprets breadth as a “silver lining” that can offset semiconductor weakness.

Momentum / “seasonality” context

• July seasonality framed as strong across sectors.
• However, “momentum is weak in July” historically (last ~5 years: one of the worst periods for momentum).
• Many AI-related names pulled back ~5% to 20%+ from highs in the first days of July—creating a “dip” for premium-selling.

Fear/positioning indicators

• “Fear & Greed” framing:
  • Market still “fear-based” due to neutral momentum, lack of strong breadth thrust, and options positioning (put-to-call ratio described as still fearful).

Key macro/news calendar

• Earnings: Speaker says there are no earnings expected to impact the market this week (while suggesting checking for potential major ones like Micron/Broadcom, but none expected this week).
• Recent context:
  • Last week: Non-farm payrolls reported 57K vs an expectation mentioned as 110K.
• Upcoming:
  • ISM Services PMI potentially relevant; otherwise fewer major macro catalysts expected.

---

Meta “compute scarcity” selloff: speaker’s interpretation

Bloomberg headline and interpretation

• Meta reportedly developing a cloud business to sell access to “excess AI compute” (Bloomberg; Meta reportedly didn’t confirm).
• The market reaction is framed as bearish for AI infrastructure due to a perceived compute-demand mismatch.

Follow-up analyses cited

• Bank of America (July 2):
  • Suggests Meta’s memory chip orders shifted, rather than demand collapsing.
  • Says “street speculation” that Meta is renting out excess compute is “groundless.”
  • Notes Meta may provide data centers “as a service,” but not true “excess capacity.”
• Morgan Stanley:
  • If Meta sells compute, it would be a bare metal offering of spare internal capacity—not third-party lease reselling.
  • Speaker argues AI infrastructure partners (e.g., “Nebius”/“CoreWeave” style partnerships) face contract constraints.
  • Concludes compute selling would be a stop gap, and likely implies compute needs to remain constrained—so the selloff may be an overreaction.

Speaker’s conclusion

• The semiconductor drop is framed as a timed news-driven overreaction during a low-volume period, with July seasonality reversion as a counterweight.

---

Step-by-step / trade selection framework

• Choose companies pulling back (especially semis/AI) while the broader market breadth remains supportive.
• Sell weekly short puts:
  • Use Barchart.com “expected move.”
  • Sell puts below the lower bound of the expected move.
• Target about ~0.5% ROI premium (speaker rule of thumb).
• Pick strikes:
  • Prefer strikes below expected move and into/near support (EMA support emphasized).
  • Avoid being too close to the current price to reduce assignment risk, but not too far to ensure adequate premium.
• When IV is high, go deeper (further OTM) to meet the premium/ROI target.

---

Key instruments/tickers mentioned

Indexes/ETFs

• SPX / S&P 500
• QQQs / NASDAQ-100 futures (QQQ referenced)
• RSP (equal-weight S&P ETF)
• SPY

Major stocks

• NVDA, AMZN, TSLA, AAPL, MSFT, NFLX, META, UBER
• ORCL (mentioned in passing)

Semiconductors / AI infra & related

• AET, QCOM
• COREWEAVE (ticker not provided in subtitles)
• Micron (earnings check)
• Broadcom (earnings check)
• Ecosystem names referenced: Samsung, SK Hynix (SKHX / SKHX), Kioxia (NAND-related)

Leverage/other

• MEU (2x version of Meta per speaker)

Other sectors referenced (examples)

• DRM (DRAM ETF)
• “TE Energy” (ticker not clearly given)
• CFR (neoclouds / “Neoclouds”)
• IGV (ETF referenced)
• PLTR
• “Zeta”
• Robinhood, FIRM (subtitles unclear), Visa
• SoFi, “New Bank” (ticker unclear)
• Rubric
• Celsius Holdings (CELH implied)

Energy/commodities mentioned

• Oil (“oil under 70”)

---

Top weekly options plays (short puts) — July 10 Friday expiry

1) NVIDIA (NVDA) — sell puts below expected move

Context

• Trading “in the 190s”
• ~22x forward earnings
• “Fair value” cited: $250–$270
• Lower-bound expected move cited later: 187.78

Strike selection

• Sell around 185 (speaker target aligns with ~0.5% ROI).
• Alternative: 182.5 mentioned if the stock opens down.
• Support zones referenced: ~185 to 180
• Expiry: Friday the 10th

Recommendation flavor

• “Great wheel setup,” with monthly consolidation and looking for a higher low near the 12 EMA.

---

2) Amazon (AMZN) — sell puts in a support zone

Support/price context

• Target support: 240 down to ~230 (mentions 200-day EMA involvement).
• Around 235 currently
• ~27.4x earnings, 1.33 PEG.

Expected move

• ~234.84

Strike selection

• For ~0.5% concept:
  • 232.5 referenced (premium around $1.40–$1.50, noted as higher than the “half-percent target”).
  • If AMZN drops further: consider 230.
  • Deeper strike idea: 227.5 if Monday opens down ~2–3%.
• Speaker is willing to be assigned into the valuation/support zone.

---

3) Semiconductor pullback pair (both wheel candidates)

3a) AET (Applied Materials vs subtitles indicate AET; described as an AI networking component)

Support box

• ~150 down to ~135

Valuation / IV

• “Around a 2 PEG”
• Growing EPS/revenue; profitability increasing
• IV: ~62%

Expected move vs strike

• Speaker suggests much of the expected move sits above 151, so choose deeper strikes.

Strike selection

• Prefer deeper: 142 / “low 140s”
• Rationale: strikes align with IV-driven premium while staying well below expected move.
• Mentions 200-day EMA placement and prior price action.

---

3b) Qualcomm (QCOM)

Context

• Pulled back from all-time highs; consolidating.

Valuation / IV

• ~1.22x forward PEG
• ~16x forward earnings
• IV: ~70%

Support zone

• ~160 to ~140 (bullish base for ~2 years)

Expected move

• ~164.73

Strike selection

• Target low 140s / 140–150 range
• For ~0.5% idea, premium cited around $0.70–$0.75 at relevant strikes
• Speaker notes strikes ~152.5 to 155 for needed premium, described as “deep below expected move.”

---

4) CoreWeave (COREWEAVE) — high IV / high beta (not for everyone)

Trigger

• Hit by Meta news; down “almost 20% in two days” (speaker).

Support zone

• below $75 to $64

Backlog / valuation notes

• “~$99B backlog”
• Revenue multiple described:
  • trending 3x to 3.5x this year sales
  • ~1.1x 2028 forward sales
• Debt load mentioned as caution.

Expected move

• ~$74.50

Strike selection

• $65 strike premium around $0.32
• Speaker equates this to “literally half a percent”
• Rationale: ~21% lower by end of week would be “deeply oversold.”
• If assigned, covered calls could be attractive due to very high IV.

---

5) Uber (UBER) — “boring” range-bound wheel

Range context

• Support: ~70 down to ~64 for 4–5 months (since Feb)

Valuation / expectations

• ~20x forward earnings
• ~1 PEG
• Expected downside: ~71.9
• IV described as lower than the rest of the list.

Strike selection

• Sell $71 strike for roughly $0.35 for the week
• If UBER opens down ~2%, consider $70 or $69 (near support)
• Assignment willingness into support zone.

---

Bonus plays (additional wheel/short put ideas)

Bonus 1) DRM (DRAM ETF)

• Down up to ~27% by Thursday low (speaker)
• Diversified holdings (Micron / SK Hynix / Samsung / plus others such as Western Digital, Seagate, Kioxia)
• Example:
  • $45 strike premium about $0.30 (~0.75 ROI for the week)
• Emphasis: don’t need to play too close due to very high IV; can target roughly ~50 down to 45 even if it bounces.
• Wheel goal: collect premium, potentially get assigned into the range, then sell covered calls.

Bonus 2) TE Energy (solar / vertically integrated; ticker not provided)

• Support zone: $8 to ~$7
• Sales ramp:
  • ~$1B this year
  • ~$1.4B next year
• Market cap: ~$2.4B
• Rationale: high implied volatility + infrastructure/energy transition theme linked to broader AI buildout.
• Plan: sell puts below $7.

Bonus 3) CFR (neoclouds; ticker not provided)

• Deals with Google and Amazon
• Pulled back ~34% in past two weeks (Meta-news impact)
• Valuation: back to ~$8B
• Support / second-line defense: around 16 (50-day EMA)
• Example: $16 strike premium about ~1% ROI (speaker: “fantastic”)
• If it falls another ~20% in a week, speaker views the fill as attractive.

Bonus 4) Zeta (software/SaaS; ticker not provided)

• Wheel logic: only if price stays in a defined range.
• Long-held support referenced: $18–$17 (subtitles also show ~$18)
• Mentions market cap about $5B and trading around 2–2.5x forward sales
• Conditional: range-trading if it fails to break above resistance.

Bonus sector rotation / financials & fintech

• Financials breakout; fintech examples:
  • Robinhood, Firm (ticker unclear from subtitles), Visa
  • SoFi: wheel plan around $17 to $14 range
  • Mentions New Bank around $14 (tickers not provided)

Bonus 6) MEU (2x leverage product on Meta)

• Speaker frames MEU as “two times version of Meta.”
• Explicit caution: don’t play these too heavily.
• Valuation context (for underlying comparison):
  • Meta cited at ~18x forward earnings
  • underlying reference around ~$580
• Support/assignment zone for underlying referenced: $5.30 to ~$4.80
• Implied strike selection: roughly 12–14% below current
• Bid targets described: around $19 to $18
• Premium examples:
  • $19.5: midpoint about $0.20
  • $19 or $18.5: midpoint about $0.10–$0.15
• Position sizing warning due to leverage.

Bonus cybersecurity: Rubric

• “Inverse head and shoulders” + potential consolidation zone $72 down to $65
• Valuation: “under 10x forward price to sales” (manageable per speaker)
• If strikes retest support, speaker would sell puts.

Bonus consumer retail: Celsius Holdings (CELH implied)

• Rotation idea as inflation peak risk fades
• Plan:
  • If Celsius pulls back below resistance and tests support:
  • Mentions potential targeting around $28 or sub-$28
• Also references support ranges for other consumer names (e.g., $35 to $30), but no specific tickers beyond Celsius.

---

Key numerical targets & thresholds recap

• S&P breadth
  • 63% above 20D EMA
  • ~60% above 50D EMA
  • ~59% above 200D EMA
• Jobs (last week)
  • Non-farm payrolls: 57K vs 110K expectation mentioned
  • Unemployment rate: 4.2%
• Semis selloff framing
  • AI names down roughly 5%–20%+ from highs in early July
• Options target
  • Premium ROI target: ~0.5%
• Expected move tool
  • Use Barchart Expected Move; sell puts below the lower bound
• Play-specific expected moves / strikes
  • NVDA: expected move lower bound 187.78; target strike 185
  • AMZN: expected move ~234.84; targets 232.5, 230, possibly 227.5
  • AET: IV ~62%; targets “low 140s” (e.g., 142)
  • QCOM: IV ~70%; targets 140s–150 (deep below expected move ~164.73)
  • COREWEAVE: expected move ~74.50; target $65
  • UBER: expected move downside ~71.9; target $71 (then 70/69 if down further)
  • DRM (DRAM ETF): $45 strike premium about $0.30 (~0.75 ROI)

---

Presenters / sources mentioned

• Presenter/host: “I” / unnamed speaker (no name given in subtitles)
• Sources/analysts
  • Bloomberg (Meta headline via Bloomberg)
  • Bank of America (July 2 analysis)
  • Morgan Stanley (compute-resale analysis)
• Tools/websites
  • Barchart.com (used for “Expected Move”)