Is America Growing Safer? | This is America

Overview

The episode reports on a sharp nationwide decline in U.S. violent crime, highlighting FBI data showing more than a 10% drop in violent crime from 2024 to 2025—the largest year-to-year decline since the FBI began tracking these figures in 1936. It also notes that the U.S. murder rate has reached its lowest level in about 70 years.

The central question posed is whether the improvement is driven by recent federal actions and is likely to last, or whether broader trends already underway explain much of the change.

Competing explanations for the decline

President Trump’s claim of credit

A major narrative thread centers on President Donald Trump’s claim that he deserves credit for the downturn. The episode describes Trump:

• Declaring a crime emergency in Washington, DC
• Deploying federal agents and National Guard troops
• Expanding similar tactics to other cities, often those governed by Democrats

The White House frames the FBI statistics as proof of this approach, with Trump and the administration describing it as a historic success and using language such as “the Trump effect.”

Counterarguments: decline predates the policies

Multiple contributors argue the decline cannot be attributed to one person or one policy. Research and commentary cited in the segment suggest violent crime was already trending downward starting around 2023, and that changes may relate to:

• Shifts in policing strategies
• Economic and social conditions
• Technology (alongside, not instead of, federal deployments)

They also note that while headline numbers look strong:

• Crime remains concentrated in certain high-violence neighborhoods
• Some categories remain problematic, such as:
  • Drug-related crimes rising
  • No clear change in sexual assaults

Political implications for the midterms

The episode connects the crime data to midterm election strategy.

• One strategist argues Republicans will emphasize falling crime numbers to motivate voters, but also warns that swing voters prioritize the economy over crime.
• Another discussion examines how the White House might pursue a dual strategy:
  • Take credit for overall decline
  • Selectively highlight incidents or local failures (including blaming Democrats) to maintain fear and urgency where crime still exists

Messaging and vulnerabilities on policing

The segment emphasizes that local lived experiences and neighborhood context may matter more to voters than national percentages.

It also explores potential Democratic vulnerabilities on policing, especially given historical rhetoric such as “defund the police.” Contributors argue that modern Democratic messaging has largely moved away from that phrase, but Republicans may still try to tie Democrats to it.

Debates over National Guard and policing policy

The episode includes direct debate about the National Guard:

• One contributor argues the Guard helps deter criminals, stabilizes situations, and criticizes discounting its effectiveness with certain data.
• Another counters that the Guard’s impact on violent crime has been limited, and that resources might be better used for approaches more directly aimed at reducing violence.

Both sides also stress that short- and long-term drivers likely matter, including:

• Jobs
• Quality of education
• Drug-market conditions

Immigration enforcement and politics

The episode discusses immigration enforcement alongside electoral considerations. It claims that immigration and deportation of violent offenders may not be a major political liability for Republicans because their base supports it. However, it also notes concerns among broader communities, especially when:

• Federal actions result in deaths
• Deportation targets are perceived as “neighbors” rather than confirmed violent criminals

Bottom line

Overall, the episode portrays a complex picture: national crime metrics are improving sharply, but the cause is contested, the improvement is uneven by geography and crime type, and both parties are actively working to turn the trend into electoral narratives, particularly with the midterms approaching.

Presenters or contributors

• Rosalyn Jordan (reporter)
• Alex Markart (Washington studio correspondent/host segment)
• Andre Perry (director, Center for Community Uplift at the Brookings Institution)
• John Fury (Republican strategist and former congressional staffer)
• Alex Barrett (reporter breaking down FBI statistics; referenced as “our Alex Barrett”)
• Muriel Bowser (referenced as mayor of Washington, DC)