Capehart and Continetti on closing messages and midterm predictions

Midterm Outlook

Matthew Continetti predicted that Democrats would win the House by roughly 15–20 seats, while Republicans would narrowly retain the Senate. The Senate could end in a 50–50 tie, with Vice President Vance casting tie-breaking votes.

Jonathan Capehart avoided making a firm forecast, noting that ticket-splitting in states such as Florida, Texas, and Michigan made the Senate difficult to call. Both said the outcome would depend on turnout and potentially imperfect polls.

Closing Messages and Turnout

Continetti said President Trump’s rallies and rhetoric were aimed at mobilizing his core supporters. However, Republicans were concerned that parts of Trump’s 2024 coalition—including young men, independents, and Hispanic voters—had drifted away.

Capehart argued that voters who supported Trump over economic concerns were now facing high fuel, health-care, and other costs. He said Democrats were combining opposition to Trump with messages about affordability and corruption, rather than relying on an anti-Trump appeal alone.

Continetti compared the possible outcome to either 2018, when Democrats won the House but Republicans held the Senate, or 2006, when Democrats took both chambers.

Alaska Senate Race

The panel discussed reporting that Mary Peltola’s campaign and the Democratic Party helped recruit a second candidate named Dan Sullivan to draw votes from Republican incumbent Dan S. Sullivan.

Capehart called the tactic a mistake but said he was more concerned about the federal government’s efforts to challenge Alaska’s election certification if a Democrat won. Continetti said questions about coordination and campaign filings could lead to further scrutiny, and that the reporting had raised questions about Peltola’s honesty.

Possible Fraud Claims and Foreign Policy

Capehart expected Trump to make fraud claims after the election and said clear, decisive results would make them harder to sustain. Continetti said Trump might allege problems in close races, particularly in Alaska, and could try to redirect attention if Republicans had a bad night.

The panel also discussed the possibility of U.S. action against Iran. Continetti was skeptical of a major move but allowed for limited strikes, adding that presidents often turn toward foreign policy after midterms. Capehart said he was prepared for Trump to take action in the days or weeks after the election.

Presenters and Contributors

• Host: Amna Nawaz
• Jonathan Capehart
• Matthew Continetti
• David Brooks was noted as away.