Video summary

📈 [LIVE] PRE-MARKET LIVE STREAM | $MU Earnings Rally | Can We Hold The Move?!

Main summary

Key takeaways

Finance

Macro catalyst / timing

  • GDP released at 8:30 (market-moving).
    • Presenter noted GDP came in “2.1 vs 1.6” and expected it could trigger a “smackdown” around key SPY resistance.
  • Ongoing theme: MU earnings drove the move, but whether gains hold vs. get given back depends on reclaiming/holding key technical levels.

Index futures / ETF technical framework & key “hold/reject” levels

NASDAQ Futures (NQ)

Bull case requires:

  • Hold demand at the daily 50 SMA
  • Reclaim the “FOMC low”

Key zones / levels

  • Demand/bounce zone: 29,250–29,330 (daily 50 SMA area)
  • FOMC low reclaim levels:
    • ~29,924 (also mentioned as 29 2924)
    • ~29,923
  • Bear risk:
    • Price is up into a 4-hour rejection point / daily 20 SMA area
    • Could create a lower-high rejection and unwind MU gains

Strategy emphasis

  • Do not fade the exact high aggressively.
  • Prefer fading only after a failure back below the FOMC low.

Targets / downside scenarios

  • If rally holds above key highs: 30,915
    • Possible “quick 500 points” move on NQ through the zone
  • If key levels break:
    • Pullback to 29,923
    • If that breaks, down to 29,600

QQQ

Bull case:

  • Reclaim/hold FOMC low and nearby daily levels

Key levels

  • CPI high hold level cited: 704.75 (exact low of day)
  • FOMC low reclaim: 720–721
  • Rejection risk / resistance:
    • 730 (potential lower-high rejection)
    • Additional thresholds: 735 and 741 (toward all-time highs)
  • If rejection occurs: move back down toward 720

S&P 500 (ES) / SPY

Critical must-hold level

  • ES FOMC low: 7,472.25

If ES holds

  • Possible push toward 7,506
  • Otherwise: downside could retrace into a lower range and “kill the trading vibe”

Additional caution levels

  • Want a higher low above daily 50
  • Watch the 7,460–7,470 previous high area
  • Upside supply noted at 7,506 (rejection point)

SPY key choke point (most important rejection reference)

  • SPY ~739–740
    • Presenter called it the “bastard child 740 spy”
  • If SPY can’t get above 740:
    • Likely trade back toward yesterday’s lows
  • If SPY reclaims:
    • Potential toward 743, then daily 20, and potentially 750

Sector / factor ETFs

SMH (Semiconductors)

Bull structure

  • Daily 20 SMA hold
  • Formation of a higher low

Mentioned support/holds

  • 613–617

Key structure levels

  • Higher lows: 633–636
  • Rejection zones above: 640, then 652–654

Scenario framework (not exact order-entry sequence)

  • If breaks/holds → long
  • If pushes then rejects → fade
  • If breaks down then finds demand → pullback long
  • If breaks and turns into rejection → look for bear-flag break and retest

IWM (Russell 2000)

  • Still cautious: “failure” under a key level
  • Demand holding, but unable to clear:
    • 320 area (“we just can’t get through this 320 spot”)
    • Also referenced: IWM at 298

IGV (software sector ETF)

  • Underperforming / “lost its mojo”
  • Shows a squeeze that sold into supply and is back in a range

Equities (earnings / setups / levels)

MU (Micron) — primary catalyst

Earnings reaction

  • Presenter: MU beat the expected move by $100
    • Expected move ~$97
    • Actual reaction up about $200

Key MU levels

  • Daily 20 near 1020
  • Earnings move squeeze back toward all-time highs near ~1250
  • Must hold above earnings high: 12:04 / 1213
    • References include: 1204, 1213, 1215, 1200, 1150, 1100

If/then plan

  • If MU holds above earnings high → break above all-time highs
  • If it breaks under:
    • Look for a pullback (possible to 1150, maybe 1100)

WDC (Western Digital)

  • Options position disclosed: July 17th 800 calls (held through MU earnings)

Key levels

  • Daily 20 hold referenced near 650–600
  • Upside threshold: above 730
  • If clears 730:
    • Targets 800
    • Potential all-time-high breakout

SNDK (SanDisk / memory)

  • Called the “best break-and-retest of all time”

Critical numeric detail

  • Prior all-time high (June 3): $18.61 (written as 1861, treated as $18.61 style pricing)
  • Yesterday LOD: $18.61 to $18.61 and 1 cent (1861.01)
  • Retest:
    • Came within 1 cent of prior ATH
    • Also touched the daily 20 SMA

Targets / reclaim levels

  • Reclaim long above prior highs around 21.60 / 21.47 / 21.50
  • Hold above 2050 area
  • If it holds → targets all-time highs

Intel (INTC)

  • Presenter disclosed buying:
    • 100 shares at 132.86 on “yesterday’s pullback”
    • Entry referenced as 13286 / 132.86
  • Wants to see it:
    • Hold a demand zone
    • Continue higher
  • Earlier mention: watch 266–268 reclaim area for strength

TSM

  • “Daily 20 holds” in uptrend
  • Levels:
    • Reclaim around 444–445
    • Then 450
    • Next threshold 458

ARM

  • Daily 20 described as “magical”
  • For continuation:
    • Break above 393
    • Targets cited: 416 and 440
  • Also referenced: ARM reclaim of daily 20 after a liquidity grab

AMD

Bullish reclaim

  • 527–530 break/retest hold
  • If holds:
    • Upside continuation
    • Pullback long toward 555 / 558 (presenter mentioned 5558)

If losing

  • Pullback longs referenced near 530

Tesla (TSLA)

  • “Bear flag break and retest” thesis previously
  • Support: demand found near 373

Today’s condition

  • If TSLA can’t reclaim 379 → potential further downside
  • Levels:
    • 379–378 resistance area
    • Downside targets: 373, then 368 if 373 breaks

Nvidia (NVDA)

  • Presenter reduced interest due to:
    • “oversaturation/ownership”
    • Lack of follow-through on pushes

Levels

  • 199–204 area (e.g., “199 hold” and must get above 204)

Other single-name mentions (brief levels)

  • Broadcom (AVGO):
    • Adding on pullback; likes “daily 200” buy zone
    • Mentions 370–375
    • Notes daily 200 SMA has been a good buy area since 2023
  • IBM: reclaim/watch 266–268
  • Corning (GLW): squeeze; retest zone 208–211
  • Robinhood (HOOD): watch for reclaim of the 200 SMA
  • Dell (DELL): needs to reclaim 444 (currently failing)

Explicit risk management / trading cautions

  • Core caution: avoid front-running the exact high
    • Wait for confirmation via rejection/failure below the FOMC low
  • Market still described as having “supply” overhead
    • Continuation requires multiple reclaim conditions (e.g., daily 20, 4-hour highs, FOMC lows)
  • If levels fail (especially SPY 739–740 or FOMC lows):
    • Expect rapid giveback into prior lows / the MU earnings range

Disclosures / promotional disclaimers

  • Not financial advice: no explicit disclaimer noted in the subtitles (as stated in the summary).
  • Promotional content:
    • Insider’s coffee discount: 30% off using code “MU”
    • Options prop firm: Vanquish promo with code “Desi” for 35% off
    • Mentions a future live stream from the New York Stock Exchange (July) with Vanquish

Methodology / framework explicitly used (as stated)

  • Level-based scenario planning for indices/ETFs

    • Identify demand holds (e.g., daily 50 / daily 20 SMA) and FOMC low reclaims
    • Treat overhead as supply / rejection points (e.g., 4-hour rejection areas, SPY 739–740, QQQ 730)
    • Confirmation logic:
      • If price reclaims and holds → look for continuation/rally targets
      • If price hits rejection and shows failure → fade/short only after failure back below a key level (often the FOMC low)

  • Break-and-retest structure for equities

    • Reclaim above prior highs with minimal “margin of error”
    • Watch tight confirmation triggers (highlighted especially in SNDK)

Key instruments / tickers mentioned

  • Indexes / futures / ETFs: NASDAQ futures (NQ), QQQ, S&P 500 (ES), SPY, IWM, SMH, IGV (and Dow Jones mentioned as DJIA)
  • Stocks: MU, AMD, ARM, SNDK, WDC, TSLA, NVDA, INTC, AVGO, TSM, IBM, GLW, HOOD, DELL
  • Additional mentions (context): ServiceNow, CrowdStrike, Palantir, Dmail (unclear), DRAM, and Microsoft/Apple/Google/Amazon (not of interest today)
  • Sectors: software (IGV), semiconductors (SMH), memory/storage (MU/WDC/SNDK)

Presenters / sources (mentioned)

  • Presenter/host: Desi (referenced via code and in-stream identity)
  • Other names referenced in context (not formal sources): John Tur Sid, Data Chef, Jose, Morning Margin, Morning Golf, Zack

Original video