🔴 Are They Planning MORE THAN 1 Gold Resets?? | Bill Holter & David Morgan

Summary

The discussion centers on a possible gold revaluation or monetary “reset,” recent weakness in precious metals, and whether rising rates reflect inflationary pressure or declining confidence in debt and currencies.

Market and macroeconomic context

• Host Danny says September PPI rose 6.3% year over year, versus 5.5% expected—the largest increase since 2022. The prior day’s CPI reading was 3.7%. He links the hotter-than-expected data to recent weakness in gold and silver.
• David Morgan argues that the key issue is whether debt markets can withstand higher borrowing costs, not simply what the Federal Reserve wants to do. He says the Fed has little room to cut and that markets have been moving independently of its preferences.
• Morgan says the US dollar’s share of global trade has declined from roughly 78% a couple of decades ago to about 58%. He views this as a gradual loss of confidence, not necessarily the end of the dollar.
• The guests discuss a recent reversal in the 10-year Treasury yield and bond buying. Bill Holter suggests investors may be buying bonds in anticipation of economic weakness. He also speculates that news about $300 billion in Russian Treasury bonds could affect confidence.
• The CME FedWatch figures shown by Danny shift from a 33% to 29% chance of a 25-basis-point hike at the next meeting, while the probability of no change rises from 66% to 70%.
• Morgan says higher rates can be deflationary: rising yields reduce the market value of existing lower-coupon bonds, potentially forcing sales and worsening liquidity and credit stress. The guests warn that a broader selloff could initially include metals, as in 2008, before a recovery.
• Danny reports WTI crude at $98 amid concern about a possible Iran conflict. The guests say war-related market reactions and asset correlations can be unreliable or unusual.

Precious metals: prices, positioning, and technical levels

• Danny says gold is near $4,000 support, while silver has broken below $60 and is trading around $56.
• Morgan says silver had risen about 70% in one month during an earlier move and may still be consolidating those gains. He also describes reports from wholesalers of plentiful retail inventory and more selling than buying.
• Holter says silver open interest increased by more than 4,500 contracts during a sharp down day, representing about 22 million ounces of exposure.
• Morgan cites the latest Commitments of Traders figures as showing commercial traders net short roughly 40,000 contracts, compared with a typical level around 50,000. He says a further increase in commercial shorts could, as a rule of thumb, precede a price low and short covering, but stresses that this is not a reliable prediction.
• On the chart, Danny identifies a horizontal silver support area that coincides with a trendline intersection. Morgan calls it an important decision point but says technical analysis is an art rather than a science.
• Morgan’s stated buying zones: silver at $60 or below and gold at $4,000 or below. He also recalls previously recommending silver around the $50 breakout and says buyers who acquired it near $30 would have roughly doubled their money at the prices discussed.
• Morgan says the recent decline may or may not be the final low and repeatedly cautions that he does not know whether this is the last buying opportunity.

Gold revaluation and portfolio views

• Holter and Morgan discuss the possibility of multiple or competitive gold repricings—for example, the US setting a price of $10,000 and China later offering $20,000. They say a higher official gold price could increase collateral available for lending and act as reflation, particularly after defaults or deflation.
• Potential revaluation levels discussed include $8,000, $10,000, $20,000, $50,000, and around $160,000. Morgan says approximately $160,000 could cover the entire debt under one framing. Participants also debate whether a $10,000 valuation would cover only a small portion of debt, with figures of roughly $1 trillion to $2.5 trillion mentioned. These are speculative scenarios, not forecasts.
• Holter points to the 1934 US gold revaluation from $20.67 to $35 per ounce as an example of a balance-sheet-strengthening, reflationary measure.
• Morgan argues that revaluing gold without clearing bad debts could reward failing borrowers and zombie companies. He favors allowing insolvent entities to fail and rebuilding on a cleaner balance-sheet foundation.
• Morgan says he generally tells investors that about 10% in gold may be appropriate, while emphasizing that allocations are individual choices. He personally favors gold but says that does not make it right for everyone.
• Holter’s stated view is that gold is money and other assets are credit, with credit capable of defaulting. Both guests advocate precious metals as savings, but these are their opinions rather than individualized advice.

Performance comparisons cited

• Morgan says that over roughly 25–26 years, gold rose about 1,600%, the S&P 500 including dividends about 800%, and housing about 400%. He notes that the selected period includes an approximately 11-year gold bull market from 2000 to 2011 and a long subsequent consolidation.
• Holter says US housing prices rose about fourfold in fiat terms but fell by more than half when measured in gold. The guests use this comparison to argue that nominal gains can obscure changes in purchasing power.
• A chart shown in the discussion compares US average hourly wages with gold. It is described as indexed at 133 in 1965 and 11 today. The transcript’s accompanying wording about the precise comparison is unclear, so the figures are best treated as the speakers’ chart interpretation.
• Morgan describes a 2008 pattern in which gold fell less than many assets before rebounding, while silver rose from roughly $9 to nearly $50—a gain he estimates at about 555%. He says this is a historical comparison, not a prediction for the current cycle.

Other assets and sectors discussed

• Danny says Nvidia fell 2%, AMD and Intel about 4% each, and Dell 8% on the day discussed, amid weakness in AI-related stocks. He says most US-market stocks were down year to date and a small group of large technology companies had been supporting broad indexes.
• He says bonds issued by AI companies had already fallen, with equity prices now appearing to catch up. Morgan agrees that credit-market weakness can precede weakness in stocks.
• OIH, an oil-services ETF, is cited as falling even while oil was rising, which the speakers describe as an unusual market relationship.
• Holter raises the CFTC’s withdrawal of a statement concerning questionable oil trades shortly before a large oil-price move. He and Morgan say the timing seems unusual but provide no substantiation.
• The guests discuss possible future CBDCs and stablecoins, saying these could remain fiat-based and, in the scenario they describe, be linked to Treasury bonds.

Methodologies and frameworks discussed

• Technical support assessment: Mark horizontal support and resistance levels, compare them with trendline or wedge boundaries, and treat their intersection as a potential inflection point—not a guarantee of reversal.
• Silver positioning indicator: Monitor commercial net-short positions and changes in futures open interest, compare current positioning with historical norms, and consider short covering as a possible source of price support. The indicator cannot identify a bottom with certainty.
• Purchasing-power comparison: Compare gold with housing, equities, wages, and other assets over long periods rather than relying only on nominal prices.
• Revaluation scenario analysis: Consider the proposed official gold price, the amount of debt it could theoretically collateralize, and whether debt defaults are cleared first. The speakers differ on how far revaluation would need to go and on the merits of using it to support existing credit.

Risks, cautions, and disclosures

• The guests repeatedly say they cannot determine whether the current decline is over and warn that metals can fall during a broader liquidity or deflationary shock.
• Morgan says he has been “humiliated” by markets and cautions against treating chart patterns as certain.
• Holter considers future gold confiscation unlikely. He speculates that US-minted coins might face greater legal protection than foreign-minted or generic bullion; this is his opinion, not legal guidance.
• The video includes a promotion for Peer-to-Peer PMX, a physical gold-and-silver marketplace. The video description discloses paid sponsored and affiliate links.
• The description states that the video is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice.

Presenters and sources

Presenters: Danny (Capital Cosm), Bill Holter, and David Morgan (referred to as “Dave” in the discussion).

Sources and references mentioned: CME FedWatch; CFTC; Commitments of Traders data; Ted Butler; Jim Sinclair; Jim Dean’s The Invisible Collapse; and Judy Shelton. Holter and Morgan also refer to their own charts and market observations.