India’s Rainfall Deficit Eases, Reservoirs Levels Up: Expert Warns On El Nino Danger

India’s Monsoon Outlook Improves in Early July

India’s monsoon outlook has improved in early July. Experts say the all-India rainfall deficit is narrowing after a slow start, though they caution it may not fully eliminate risk from an ongoing (moderating) El Niño.

Rainfall Deficit Easing (Early July)

• GP Sharma (Skymet) says the all-India monsoon rainfall deficit narrowed to 24% as of July 5.
• This is down from about 43.1% a week earlier.
• However, he warns it is still early and “too early” to declare a complete resolution of the El Niño-related threat.

The season is still early—improvements do not guarantee full elimination of El Niño risk.

Central India and Heavy Rain Recovery

Sharma notes a vigorous monsoon over roughly the last 10 days, including:

• Heavy rain affecting central parts
• Deluge conditions in Mumbai, where such conditions have become frequent

He adds that while concerns about El Niño impacts continue, rainfall in many regions is currently closer to “normal bracket” levels.

Mumbai’s El Niño-Associated Rainfall Record

Sharma highlights how El Niño has affected Mumbai:

• July 2023 (an El Niño year) set an all-time July record for Mumbai at about 1771 mm
• This July has already crossed ~1100 mm and exceeded normal

El Niño Still a Factor

Sharma says El Niño is not gone:

• It remains present and is strengthening
• India is in a weak phase right now, transitioning to moderate conditions expected to persist through the monsoon
• The peak influence is likely after the monsoon (around November)

He emphasizes that even moderate El Niños have previously disrupted monsoons, citing 2002, 2004, and 2009 (including drought years).

Near-Term Pause Expected, Not a Full Fix

Sharma anticipates a short break/pause in monsoon activity for about 3–10 days in heavily drenched areas, including Maharashtra/Mumbai.

Regional Distribution Remains the Key Concern

While the overall deficit is easing, Sharma stresses that regional distribution matters most:

• Bihar and East Uttar Pradesh remain over 50% deficient, even after recent rain
• Maharashtra has largely recovered, but Marathwada still has a deficit
• He links improvement to the sowing period, expecting increased acreage (positive for agriculture)
• He expects rains over deficit regions—especially Bihar/East UP and parts of the Northeast—during a slower phase roughly from 10th to ~20th of July

Reservoir Levels: Below Last Year, But Likely to Improve

Anshuman (Director, Water Resources Division, TERI) explains that earlier rainfall deficits have affected reservoirs:

• As of July 2, among major reservoirs (166 mentioned), reservoirs held about 26% of capacity (roughly 47.7 BCM)
• This is ~39% lower than last year at the same time

Key points:

• Reservoirs are dynamic and can recover as rainfall arrives
• Even so, projections still indicate a below-normal monsoon, so some deficit is likely to persist

Agricultural Implications

TERI’s Anshuman says reservoir deficits matter because they influence:

• Surface water availability for crops
• Groundwater recharge

While improved rainfall and easing deficits should support agriculture, he stresses the need to plan for continued shortfalls, since rainfall may not reach fully optimal levels.

Presenters / Contributors

• GP Sharma (President, Meteorology and Climate Change, Skymet)
• Neeraj (host/interviewer)
• Anshuman (Director, Water Resources Division, TERI)
• Mr. Mana (interviewer)