Russia Readies New Big Missile Strike Kiev South Bridge Badly Damaged; Putin Trashes Donetsk Buffer

Summary

Alexander Mercouris argues that Ukraine is facing worsening military and logistical pressure, while prospects for a negotiated settlement remain poor. Many of the battlefield details and forecasts he discusses are based on reports he cites or his own interpretation, rather than independently confirmed information.

Military and logistical pressure

• Possible major Russian strike: Mercouris says reports indicate that Russian strategic bombers, missile launchers, and naval vessels are preparing for another large strike on Ukraine. He describes this as distinct from routine drone attacks and from a sustained campaign against Odesa and southwestern Ukraine. His suggestion that separate Russian command groups coordinate these campaigns is speculative.

• Kyiv’s South Bridge and supply concerns: Citing new reports, Mercouris says damage to Kyiv’s South Bridge may extend beyond the large hole previously shown in images, potentially affecting both the road and rail sections. He doubts it can be repaired quickly and says it could remain out of service for an extended period, while emphasizing that he is not an engineer and lacks a full damage assessment. He argues that losing the crossing would complicate supply routes to Ukrainian forces east of the Dnieper and could make other bridges more important targets. He also reports anxiety in Kyiv over electricity, transport, and possible further attacks.

• Strikes on Kharkiv: Mercouris says Kharkiv was targeted by drones and an Iskander missile, which reportedly hit an industrial facility. He says the city’s main thermal power plant had already been badly damaged and that Kharkiv, like Kyiv, is increasingly reliant on electricity supplied from elsewhere.

• Reported advances in the north and east: Mercouris highlights Russian claims of capturing villages near Sumy and north of Kharkiv, interpreting them as signs of pressure on Ukrainian defenses and possible efforts to threaten Sumy’s supply links. He speculates that Ukraine may have concentrated too many forces in Donbas, leaving northern areas vulnerable. He also suggests Russian armored vehicles may be helping troops advance in muddy conditions, while acknowledging that this explanation is conjectural.

• Donbas fighting: Mercouris says reports point to Russian forces entering Druzhkivka from several directions, potentially threatening supply routes from Kramatorsk. He anticipates that further Russian advances could bring them closer to Kramatorsk and eventually place the remaining fortified cities, including Sloviansk, under greater pressure. He also describes Russian forces as retaking ground after Ukrainian gains in the area of the 3rd Assault Brigade’s “Operation Vivaldi.” His claims about the locations or withdrawal of Ukrainian units and commanders are presented as guesses.

Why Donbas matters

Drawing on analysis by former U.S. Army officer Stanislav Krapivnyk, Mercouris argues that Donbas’s terrain and fortified cities have served as a defensive shield for Ukraine. He says that if Sloviansk and Kramatorsk fall, Ukrainian forces would face more open terrain farther west, making future Russian advances easier.

Diplomacy and negotiations

• Putin’s calls with European leaders: Mercouris rejects a Financial Times account that Putin spent much of a call with Finnish President Alexander Stubb and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre giving a historical lecture. He argues that the report may be misleading and says the discussion likely focused more on the battlefield and Russia’s terms. He notes that Russia’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, said the call produced no new ideas, and that some European leaders criticized it for lacking coordination.

• Negotiations and Russia’s stated terms: Mercouris speculates that Stubb may have wanted to position himself as a European lead negotiator. He interprets Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov’s comments as evidence that Moscow is not relaxing its demands. In Mercouris’s reading, Russia’s position includes territorial claims over Donbas and other regions, a neutral Ukraine outside NATO, limits on Ukraine’s armed forces and foreign troop deployments, and changes concerning Russian speakers and the Russian Orthodox Church. He argues that these terms leave little room for a demilitarized buffer zone in Donbas and suggests Russian demands could grow if Moscow gains further territory.

Iran forecast

Mercouris predicts that the United States may strike Iran after its midterm elections. He considers recent regional diplomatic efforts unlikely to avert such an attack and says developments in Israel may also increase the chance of escalation. This is his forecast, not a confirmed plan.

Presenters and contributors

• Presenter: Alexander Mercouris
• Contributors whose analyses or views are referenced: Stanislav Krapivnyk, Matthew Blackburn, and Ian Proud