반도체보다 더 무섭게 오를겁니다! 원전·전력·조선, 하반기 주도섹터는? [허재환 / 유진투자증권]

Finance-focused summary (markets + sector investing view)

• Main thesis: Power infrastructure/power equipment can keep outperforming even after a big run, supported by:

  • Data centers + AI demand
  • A broader power grid undersupply problem (described as worse than semiconductor bottlenecks)

• Key concern for new allocation (relative value): Even though power-related stocks look strong, the speaker questions whether buying power infrastructure / power semiconductor exposure is as attractive as buying pure-play semiconductor demand (example comparison: Samsung Electronics vs SK Hynix).

• Demand visibility / orders: High-voltage transformer orders in the U.S. are described as fully booked for the next ~3–4 years.

• Recent price performance (momentum already priced in): Power equipment-related stocks have risen ~7–8x over ~2 to 2.5 years.

Valuation vs sustainability framing

• Valuation argument: Semiconductor/AI/digital themes are framed as relatively “cheap” on valuation compared with how much power equipment has already rallied.

• Durability argument: Power equipment demand may be more durable/longer-lasting because U.S. and Europe grids are outdated, implying rebuild/replacement needs beyond just data centers.

• What to monitor / risk cue: Watch for whether the stock trend reverses. Expectations for power equipment could extend as long as earnings remain strong.

Macro and rate sensitivity (core risk factor)

• Capex-heavy sectors are rate-sensitive: Industries requiring large capital investment (e.g., power equipment, infrastructure, and nuclear/telecom-like capex cycles) are described as highly sensitive to interest rate hike cycles.

• Historical comparison: The speaker likens today’s risk setup to telecommunications equipment around 1999–2000, which later deteriorated after U.S. interest rate increases (post-2000).

• Timeline emphasis: Because U.S. midterm elections are in November, the speaker believes the “interest rate peak” debate for data center construction/infrastructure is more likely next year rather than this year.

• Practical caution: If stocks rise too much this year, there could be sharp fluctuations when rate-hike talk returns next year.

• Near-term stance: Likely no “major” rate change soon, so less immediate worry—but interest rates remain the key point.

Construction stocks (nuclear-related differentiation)

• Potential “breather” risk: Construction names that rallied on nuclear momentum may face a pause as results/earnings take time to catch up.

• Execution constraint: Nuclear power construction is described as very long-duration, and not many firms have the capability to actually execute nuclear projects.

• Implication: stock selection matters more than the theme: Differentiate between companies that secure orders vs those that cannot.

• Buy-the-dip style idea (with conditions): For large-cap construction firms with prior nuclear order track records, a stock price drop could be an opportunity—contingent on fundamentals/orders.

Sector laggards: pharmaceuticals/biotech

• Relative underperformance vs leaders: Pharma/biotech is described as struggling to gain momentum while semiconductors and power infrastructure lead.

• Drivers cited:

  • Clinical trials can depend on interest rates
  • The speaker believes a base rate increase is unlikely
    • Rate cuts have stalled; U.S. rates stopped falling
  • Therefore, pharma/biotech acceleration may be better in 2H (second half of the year)

• Rotation argument: Pharma/biotech may become more attractive if semiconductors/power infrastructure lose momentum, and oil-price and rate-hike concerns ease.

Robotics (similar to pharma, but currently lower priority)

• Robots are said to be affected by interest rates.
• Long-term opportunity exists, but near-term robots may fall in ranking because semiconductors and power infrastructure are currently the dominant leaders.

Tickers / companies / benchmarks mentioned

• Samsung Electronics (ticker not provided)
• SK Hynix (ticker not provided)
• ZVIN B (spelled as “ZVIN B”; exact ticker uncertain)
• Hyosung Heavy Industries
• “G-number bars together” (unclear exact benchmark/instrument; likely mis-transcribed)
• KOSDAQ (market segment)
• KOSPI (market segment)
• Themes mentioned without specific tickers:
  • Robotics
  • Secondary batteries

Step-by-step frameworks / checklist implied

1) Power infrastructure vs semiconductors (new purchase decision)

• Compare relative attractiveness (e.g., Samsung Electronics / SK Hynix vs power infrastructure exposure)
• Consider valuation vs momentum
• Assess whether demand is sustainable, using signals like:
  • Order visibility (e.g., transformer bookings)
  • Grid replacement needs
• Check for trend reversals after a multi-year rally

2) Construction stock selection (especially nuclear-related)

• Prioritize firms that secure nuclear-related orders
• Verify the company has genuine nuclear construction capability
• Use large-cap pullbacks for capable firms as a potential entry point (only with order/fundamental support)

Key numbers / timelines explicitly stated

• Power equipment run-up: ~7–8x over ~2 to 2.5 years
• U.S. high-voltage transformer orders: next ~3–4 years (fully booked)
• Interest rate cycle risk window:
  • Rate-hike debate for construction/infrastructure/data centers: next year
  • Linked to U.S. midterm elections in November
  • Near-term continuation could last at least until the end of this year
• Pharma/biotech improvement timing: 2H (second half of the year)

Explicit cautions / risk disclosures

• No formal “not financial advice” disclaimer appears in the provided text.
• Main risks:
  • Interest rate sensitivity for capex-heavy sectors → potential volatility if rate-hike expectations re-emerge next year
  • For construction, avoid assuming earnings will quickly “catch up”—capability and order reality matter

Presenter / sources

• 허재환 / 유진투자증권 (Yu Jin Investment & Securities)