In the chair with Mutares’ Johannes Laumann on US expansion, a record deal and growth momentum

Deal flow & expansion momentum (macro-to-execution)

Johannes Laumann says the deal environment “played out very well” since the prior interview. The pipeline is “super full and super rich,” and Mutares executed multiple deals during the period.

Record transaction (US chemical carve-out)

• Signed with SABIC on the chemical side (US-focused).
• Described as Mutares’ largest transaction to date.
• Revenue: > €2 billion per year
  • Deal scope: acquisition of SABIC’s ETB business.
• Rationale:
  • Invest in sectors in transformation (turnaround + carve-outs).
  • Seek US geographic growth plus material/chemical segment growth.

Sector thesis reiterated

Mutares invests in industries undergoing structural change, including:

• Auto / EV
• Retail / e-commerce
• Steel / materials (historically)

…with chemicals/materials as a more current focus.

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What made the SABIC carve-out “particularly attractive”

Geography / US exposure as a core growth lever

• Laumann targets ~70–80% US exposure, with Mexico and Brazil included but predominantly US.
• Strategy is explicit: grow further in the US, described as a key “gross market.”

Sector fit

• Chemical/materials are “in motion,” with many assets available (including “European chemical assets” broadly).
• Mutares’ view on Europe:
  • They would not buy commodity chemical products in Europe
  • Reason: no future due to cost/capex/aging plants and relative China advantage.
• Mutares’ view on the US:
  • Certain US segments may still be viable because some plants/products still “work.”

Deal sizing & repeatability

• The chemicals deal is positioned as building a sizable, repeatable platform—not a one-off.
• Goal: scale into larger assets.
• Mentioned scale target: 2.4–4 billion turnover (context: material segment growth ambition).

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US expansion plan (operations + org)

Expansion logic

• The US market is “understood” by Mutares, including its restructuring culture (buyers/institutions accept turnaround logic).
• The US is described as cash-driven: “not funny money… it’s at the end cash.”

Execution steps

• Chicago office already exists.
• Plan to open a second US office.
• Hiring: “hiring a lot of people” for US operations.

Organizational model

• The US is not run as a separate standalone profit center in a strict legal/accounting sense:
  • “One P&L in the holding”
• Target (within 5 years):
  • US profitability contribution should be “more or less in the range of Europe.”

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Europe vs. US: key differences in Mutares’ approach

Segment viability

• Some industries/products may be active in the US but not viable in Europe (example: commodity chemicals).
• The “EV story” in the US is described as not “arrived” in the same way as in Europe (example: Texas distance/charging practicality).

Deal structure economics

• Europe: deal price dictated more by P&L performance.
• US: deal price dictated more by balance sheet conditions, providing “more leverage” and access to financing instruments.

Seller motivation in carve-outs

Common motivations globally, but operationally important in the US:

• Sellers want to sell because they have an issue they don’t want to handle.
• They want to do it cheaply.
• They want to avoid reputational risk (avoiding press).
• For foreign corporates, US layoffs/closures can be reputationally sensitive—Mutares can take over restructuring/shutdown.

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Exit playbook: optimization → harvesting (process framework)

Laumann describes a repeatable exit process:

“First 100 days” (structured playbook)

• Stabilize the company
• Make it standalone
• Build a game plan

Decision loop and selling readiness

• Move toward bringing a company to market as “nice clean and separate”
• Make decisions based on exit impact
• Understand who the seller wants to attract

Competition as a non-negotiable lever

• Mutares aims to generate competition in exit processes; otherwise it’s not a “real exit.”
• Stated mechanism:
  • Without competition → multiples tend to be low
  • With competition → multiples tend to be high
• Practical rule: avoid/stop a process if there isn’t a credible path to multiple bidders.

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Exits: 2025/2026 environment and examples

Timing outlook

• 2025: “a lot of exits.”
• Q4 2025 / early 2026 (announcements around January 2026):
  • Cloud (building materials)
  • Conexus (telco)
  • Fuentes (logistics)
  • Budos (steel)

Segment sentiment (2026)

• Energy: “very attractive”
• Infrastructure: “very attractive”
• Retail: harder to find buyers (“tough”)

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Capital allocation & financial posture (targets, priorities, timelines)

Dividend policy

• Base dividend: €2 per share
• Relationship to earnings:
  • holding company income guidance of €130–160 million net income for the year
  • dividend framing: whether they can “top it up”
• Laumann signals dividends remain protected even with competing capital uses (“stick to this promise”).

Bond refinancing / debt plan

• Bond refinancing in 2027, including:
  • repaying part of the 2027 bond
  • refinancing/rolling over part

Capital allocation priorities

• “Priority is growth”
• Growth requires balance-sheet funding:
  • “pay the balance sheet… allocation capital in a transaction”

Geographic growth timeline (forward-looking)

Over the “next 5 years,” growth comes outside Europe “for sure,” focused on:

• US
• Japan: second office mentioned; initial pipeline building
• China: good pipeline
• India / Middle East: good pipeline

Geographic growth outside Europe is tied to operational expansion already underway.

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Risk management & turnaround governance

Deal outcome probability

• Rule-of-thumb:
  • about 1 in 10 deals doesn’t go as expected
  • mention of “three to four headaches”

Portfolio & concentration management

• Portfolio size: ~34 companies in the active SPV/OPCO structure.
• Confirmed trouble count: 3 “headaches” (noted many are on the automotive side).

Ring-fenced structure (operating model)

• Corporate stack:
  • Listed holding (Mutares) → SPVs → OPCOs (operating companies)
• Legal/financial ring-fencing:
  • If one company fails, support decisions depend on the ring-fencing structure.

Intervention cadence

• Operational oversight team:
  • 160 people reviewing companies “every day”
• Decision speed:
  • “Good news comes fast, bad news comes faster”
  • “It’s on my desk… decision on what to do.”

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Success criteria for the next year (2026 framing)

Laumann suggests success in 12 months includes:

• Further growth in America
• Growth in key segments: energy, construction, and chemical
• Open one additional office
• Complete/execute planned exits; optimistic about two major “blast” exits

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Frameworks / playbooks explicitly referenced

• First-100-days stabilization playbook
  • standalone, game plan, separation for sale
• Exit “competition-first” rule
  • multiples determined by competitive bidding intensity
• Football-like phased execution model
  • early drive scripted; later strategy via “offensive coach/quarterback” analogy for decision-making after initial stabilization

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Key metrics / KPIs / targets mentioned

• US chemical carve-out (SABIC ETB)
  • > €2B annual revenue
• Geographic exposure target
  • ~70–80% US exposure
• US contribution target
  • within 5 years: profitability contribution comparable to Europe
• Dividend
  • base dividend €2 per share
• Holding net income guidance
  • €130–160 million net income for the year
• Bond timeline
  • 2027 bond refinancing plan
• Portfolio
  • ~34 companies
  • 3 current “headaches”
• Operational oversight capacity
  • 160 people reviewing portfolio companies daily

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Concrete examples / case studies referenced

• SABIC / ETB chemical carve-out (US)
  • largest deal to date; > €2B annual revenue
• Norics (Norway)
  • referenced as an earlier example: €400–450 million business size
• Exit examples (announced around Q4/Jan 2026)
  • Cloud, Conexus, Fuentes, Budos
• US vs Europe examples used
  • commodity chemical viability differences
  • EV adoption constraints (Texas charging/range example)

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Presenters / sources mentioned

• Johannes Laumann — CIO, Mutares
• Neil Shaw — Market strategist, Edison