On Indian Navy's Submarine Shortage, 3rd Aircraft Carrier & Hormuz Crisis: Navy Chief Answers All

Summary of the NDTV Defense Forum Discussion

(Indian Navy; aircraft carriers; submarines; Hormuz crisis)

India as a maritime power

The speaker argues that India is fundamentally a maritime power, not merely a country with a coastline. India’s economy and development are portrayed as deeply dependent on the sea—especially because most trade moves by sea, and large segments of GDP and population are tied to coastal regions.

A rapidly worsening Indian Ocean security environment

The Indian Ocean security environment is described as worsening and changing fast, driven by:

• More congestion and competition among regional and extra-regional actors
• Weakened restraint in maritime behavior, stressing the rules-based order at sea under pressure
• An expanded threat spectrum, including:
  • ballistic/cruise missiles
  • unmanned systems
  • threats to critical infrastructure
• Real-world disruption, including:
  • reduced shipping through the Strait of Hormuz
  • attacks in West Asia affecting global trade and energy flows
• Climate change, which is increasing maritime vulnerability and making resilience more important

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What the Indian Navy must do (as framed in four shaping trends + a core challenge)

The discussion lays out four major shaping trends for the Indian Ocean:

1. Persistence of bottlenecks/piracy/terrorism
2. Faster-changing warfare enabled by AI, autonomy, cyber, and space
3. Increasing transparency through satellite coverage
4. Rising climate-driven risks

It then identifies the key challenge as whether India can change fast enough.

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The Navy’s response in three steps

1. Anticipate and understand Plan for a future operating picture (autonomous systems, AI, quantum, cyber, space) using:

   • dedicated organizational structures
   • collaboration with industry, academia, and startups

2. Adapt Reduce innovation timelines and modernize continuously through:

   • shorter development cycles
   • open architectures
   • industry partnerships

3. Build Strengthen not only platforms, but also long-term sustainment, including:

   • supply chains
   • reserves
   • industrial capacity
   • Atmanirbharta (self-reliance) across content, quality, scale, and reliability

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Drones and AI in naval warfare

• Drones are acknowledged as a major modern capability, but not yet decisive because:
  • anti-drone measures are improving
  • cost dynamics are changing—countermeasures may reduce drones’ effectiveness as a “cheap-and-overwhelming” tool

Naval context matters

The speaker emphasizes that naval use is different from land warfare:

• distances at sea are much larger
• sea-based drone roles require special types and cannot be copied directly from land concepts

AI as a “multiplier”

AI + drones are presented as a force multiplier, with AI enabling:

• decision-making and support
• analysis and predictive maintenance
• understanding the marine environment

The discussion also mentions INICAI (Indian Navy AI incubation) as a bridge to academia and industry for deployable solutions, including combat-oriented applications.

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West Asia operations (Hormuz crisis context)

The Indian Navy’s approach is described as mission-based deployment:

• identify hot spots and select platforms suited to the mission
• maintain continuous presence near the Persian Gulf / Gulf of Oman entrance to protect trade and maritime economic security

During the West Asian conflict, the described tasks included:

• preparing to safely extract Indian ships upstream/north of Hormuz
• potentially evacuating non-combatants if required
• avoiding escalation, since it was framed as not “India’s war”
• then escort through the combat zone, maintaining vigilance to prevent incidents and protect merchant vessels
  • described as exhausting but consistent with training

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Extra-regional naval growth (e.g., China) and monitoring

The speaker is described as aware of extra-regional interests and naval growth. However, the discussion argues that freedom of navigation is a sovereign right.

Operationally, India emphasizes maritime situational awareness, including:

• monitoring ships entering and leaving the Indian Ocean
• tracking routes, interactions, patterns, and cargo histories

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Aircraft carrier questions

On the need for a third aircraft carrier, the response frames it as:

• not a “winning/losing battle”
• but a national capability requirement

Carriers are described as providing the unmatched ability to generate decisive relative combat power at chosen time and place across vast ocean spaces.

The discussion also notes:

• the existing Vikrant is described as near deployment with Rafale aircraft
• confidence that a third carrier is needed, with government awareness implied

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Submarine fleet and “lost decade” concerns

Submarines are treated as essential combat platforms. The discussion acknowledges the fleet needs more numbers and capability.

The plan is framed across three categories:

• nuclear ballistic missile submarines (in development)
• nuclear attack submarines (already operating)
• conventional submarines

It also highlights autonomous underwater systems for surveillance and attacks.

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Shipbuilding momentum and production scale

The discussion claims expansion in production momentum, including:

• roughly 42 warships under construction in Indian shipyards (as stated during the event)
• additional projects likely to be approved, implying sustained shipbuilding and defense industrial growth

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Strait of Hormuz & Bab el-Mandeb implications (energy nodes largely blocked)

The Navy’s conclusion emphasizes that threats and opportunities are reassessed daily, because conditions change with:

• technology
• adversaries
• geography

For energy security, India is described as pursuing diversification of supply sources (a stated lesson from the conflict).

A core cross-cutting theme is self-sufficiency, particularly in defense technologies, to create, fight, and sustain forces on India’s own.

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Presenters / Contributors

• Rahul Kamal — Editor-in-Chief, NDTV (moderator/host for questions)
• Admiral Swaminathan — Chief of Staff of the Naval Forces (primary speaker)
• Vishnu — contributor/questioner (briefly referenced on stage; asked or supported questions)