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U.S. is running out of missiles, Russia and China are watching — Ex-CIA Analyst Larry Johnson

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News and Commentary

Summary of Main Arguments / Commentary

  • U.S. role toward Russia should be re-evaluated: Ex-CIA analyst Larry Johnson argues Russia should recognize the United States as an enemy rather than a potential ally. He frames the U.S. as a nation in economic, political, and military crisis. He also claims the long-running war in Ukraine demonstrates both U.S. “malevolent” regional influence and limited effective military power.

  • U.S.-supplied weapons haven’t delivered decisive results (per Johnson):

    • Johnson challenges the idea that U.S. deliveries such as ATACMS and 155mm shells would be “game-changers.”
    • He argues Russia adapted with countermeasures, citing Patriot/PAC-3 as an example of a costly system with limited effectiveness—especially against Russian assets like Iskander.
    • He emphasizes an economic mismatch: the U.S. allegedly pays millions per Patriot missile shot, while Russia’s threats are cheaper, making repeated defense-fire unsustainable.

  • Intelligence support is singled out as the most dangerous U.S. contribution:

    • Johnson claims the greatest threat from the U.S. is intelligence and targeting support (e.g., GPS coordinates) that enables precision strikes.
    • He describes strikes on Russian civilian areas as war crimes and calls for stopping the intelligence assistance.

  • U.S. missile depletion is a broader issue beyond Ukraine:

    • Johnson expands the argument to the Houthis and Red Sea operations, including Operation Prosperity Guardian and later Operation Rough Rider.
    • He claims these operations were declared successful despite major losses, including MQ-9 Reaper drones, F-18s, and damage to ships.
    • The broader point: repeated engagements suggest the U.S. is running short on precision-guided munitions that are difficult to replenish quickly.

  • Inventory estimates and categories of precision weapons are reportedly dwindling:

    • Johnson breaks down precision munitions into categories, including:
      • Air defense: PAC-3, THAAD
      • SEAD: AGM-88 HARM, AARGM-ER
      • Long-range strike: Tomahawk, JASSM, PRSM, ATACMS
    • He suggests remaining stockpiles are limited—possibly only thousands for some types—and that some missiles are depleted or constrained by range (noting ATACMS as limited to ~180 miles).

  • China’s control of rare-earth supply chains is presented as a production bottleneck:

    • Johnson argues these weapons depend on rare earth minerals processed/manufactured in China.
    • He claims China has imposed export restrictions, meaning the U.S. may fund production but cannot reliably obtain essential inputs to make new systems.

  • Combat endurance problem (3–4 week claim):

    • Using Tomahawk as an example, Johnson claims the U.S. spent a large share of its inventory early in the “war with Iran” framing.
    • He argues the U.S. would likely exhaust major missile stocks within 3–4 weeks if facing peer-level conflict.
    • He concludes the U.S. lacks both the inventory and the ability to replace weapons fast enough for sustained conflict.

  • A related supply-chain issue is said to affect the F-35:

    • Johnson alleges F-35 aircraft have been delivered missing components—particularly the nose radar—linked to precision magnets sourced from China, with temporary workarounds and unresolved capability gaps.

  • Strategic implication for Russia and China:

    • Johnson claims Russia and China benefit because U.S. spending and missile usage against Iran reduce the missiles available for threats closer to them.
    • He argues U.S. leadership is “in denial” about shortages and therefore won’t adjust strategy. He warns that if the U.S. is forced to acknowledge it cannot sustain attrition wars, the global strategic balance will shift.

Presenters / Contributors

  • Larry Johnson (former CIA analyst; speaker, narrator)

Original video