Will Americans Die to Open the Strait of Hormuz? Seyed M. Marandi

Summary

Host Daniel Davis interviews Professor Seyed Mohammad Marandi about the risk of renewed US-Israeli attacks on Iran and possible escalation around the Strait of Hormuz.

Risk of renewed conflict

Marandi says Iran does not want war but is preparing for the possibility of an attack. He says Iranian officials reportedly believe an attack could come before the US midterm elections. He argues that President Trump’s shifting statements make US intentions difficult to predict.

Dispute over the nuclear rationale

Davis highlights what he sees as a contradiction between US claims that earlier strikes destroyed Iran’s nuclear program and later claims that Iran was close to developing a weapon. Marandi says international inspections found no evidence that Iran was pursuing nuclear weapons, and argues that the nuclear threat has been used to justify attacks.

Human and economic costs

Marandi cites civilian deaths and hardship in Iran, as well as higher oil and diesel prices and disruptions to supplies from the Gulf. He warns that a wider conflict could trigger a global economic crisis.

Iran’s preparations and threatened response

Marandi says Iran is expanding its underground missile and drone capabilities and preparing for a more destructive conflict. He warns that attacks on Iranian infrastructure could prompt retaliation against energy and other infrastructure in Gulf states involved in the conflict.

He also raises the possibility of ground movements involving Iran or allied Iraqi groups, while acknowledging that he does not know how such operations would unfold.

Could strikes force Iran to yield?

Marandi rejects the idea that a short bombing campaign would make Iran capitulate. He argues that Iran is geographically large, has domestic industrial capacity, and could retaliate in ways that severely damage regional energy production and global markets.

Nuclear escalation and wider political arguments

Davis raises the possibility of nuclear weapons being used. Marandi condemns that prospect and says Iranian leaders have warned that an existential threat could change Iran’s nuclear posture.

Marandi also argues that the conflict is tied to Iran’s opposition to Israel’s policies toward Palestinians. He says negative portrayals of Iran in Western societies weaken scrutiny of US and Israeli actions.

Closing

Both express hope that renewed war can be avoided and diplomacy resumed. Marandi recommends Going to Tehran as a way to understand Iran beyond what he describes as anti-Iranian narratives.

The interview presents Marandi’s forecasts and interpretations. Many of his claims about Iran’s military capacity and the likely consequences of escalation are assertions made by the guest.

Presenters and contributors: Daniel Davis (host); Seyed Mohammad Marandi (guest).