Video summary

4 Stocks You'll Wish You Bought on This Dip

Main summary

Key takeaways

Finance

Market & Macro Context (What’s Driving the Tape)

  • Broader market tone: Started the day “more green than red,” then shifted to more red across the board.
  • Semiconductors: Described as a “breather,” but mostly red.
  • AI/Big Tech sentiment: Many names were down; Meta was singled out as barely green.

Rates / FOMC catalyst risk (8 days away)

  • Video notes an upward shift toward a rate hike path.
  • Implied probabilities for a 25 bps hike: 41%
    • 25.3% for 50 bps was also mentioned.
  • Implied probabilities for 75 bps: 7.2%
  • Oil as a swing factor: Crude ~$87–$88, down about 3.84%, was described as impacting the odds.
  • Near-term event risk: FOMC in ~8 days; odds can move with headlines even if “nothing is going to happen next week.”

IPO / Liquidity Narrative (SpaceX Week)

  • SpaceX IPO is described as over-subscribed, with an expected valuation of roughly $1.7T to nearly $2T.
  • Short-term expectation: IPO hype may pull focus and capital, potentially rotating money from reasonable valuation names into IPO demand.
  • Caution / prediction: The author expects a near-term pop from hype, followed by a pullback over the following weeks/months, creating future opportunities to buy at “lower valuation.”
  • Explicit stance: The author doesn’t need to participate in the IPO or other AI hype events (mentions Anthropic/OpenAI) because they may be overpriced initially.

Companies / Tickers Mentioned (Key Finance Points)

Space / Defense / IPO

  • SpaceX (no ticker given)
    • IPO, valuation ~$1.7T–$2T
    • Multiple times over-subscribed
    • Expected pattern: short-term spike, then decline

Newly / Added Position (described as “cheap,” “profitable,” “undervalued”)

  • Reddit (ticker not clearly stated)
    • Author “pulled the trigger” on a starter position.
    • Valuation described unclearly as a “33, 35 million-dollar company” (likely intended $33–$35B; subtitles were unclear).
    • Monetization described as still early, with AI licensing deals early and not priced in (author view).

Big Tech / AI-Linked

  • Apple (AAPL)

    • Down ~2.8% after an event focused on Siri AI.
    • Monetization thesis: make Siri useful, enabling higher Apple services pricing (e.g., iCloud+) without heavy capex vs peers.
    • Disappointment risk: Siri called a “flop for over a decade.”
    • Partner mentioned: Google Gemini (Apple working with Google).

  • Meta (META)

    • Framed as under $600… no-brainer.
    • Multiples cited: about 17x forward P/E; trailing toward ~20x.
    • Fundamentals cited:
      • Revenue > $200B
      • ~30% growth
      • Core business described as very profitable
    • AI monetization/product:
      • Subscription services
      • Mentions “Muse Spark” released ~almost 2 months ago
      • Waiting for developer API access

  • Microsoft (MSFT)

    • Mentioned as likely to do better in a market crash (no specific figures given).

  • Google / Alphabet (GOOGL/GOOG implied)

    • Valuation described as back to almost mid-20s P/FCF (affected by higher capex).
    • Author wants to add on pullbacks.
    • TD Cowen price target: $475
    • Capacity/ramp logic:
      • Google Cloud capacity expected to rise >10x
      • AI ramp tied to capex: expected capex rising 10x from ’23 to ’31 (through 2031)
      • Google Cloud margin expected to rise steadily
      • Incremental revenue to capex approaching pre-AI levels in 2027

  • Amazon (AMZN)

    • Since end of March: +35%, then about -10% from peak.
    • Author target: $300/share (~$2.6T company).
    • Multiples: ~29x trailing, ~27.3x forward P/E.
    • Capex cited: “over $200” (likely $200B+).
    • Thesis: AWS acceleration, benefiting from Anthropic and OpenAI workloads on AWS.

  • Netflix (NFLX)

    • Mentioned: “$82 is a very very good deal” (no additional multiple/metrics).

  • Oracle (ORCL)

    • Earnings due Wednesday after market close.
    • Thesis: convert a huge backlog into revenue acceleration and possibly profit, impacting other cloud players.

Cybersecurity (Quality/Valuation Caution)

  • Fortinet (FTNT): down ~4.5%
  • SentinelOne (listed as “Sentinel”; ticker not clearly stated): down ~3.8%
  • Zscaler (ZS): down ~3.6%
  • CrowdStrike (CRWD): down (percent unclear)
    • Author view: best-in-class, but would probably not pay that price
  • Palo Alto (PANW): down (percent unclear)
  • Rubrik (RBRK):
    • Down; described around ~$70/share
    • Author prefers Rubrik over paying for “best in class” at a premium

Financial framing:

  • Cybersecurity “trading at a premium.”
  • Operating margins cited around 0.6% to ~1% for some companies over the last 12 months.
  • Some remain GAAP unprofitable; even with free cash flow, GAAP profitability can be negative.

Semiconductor Space

  • ASML: “barely green”
  • Marvell (MRVL): down ~10.3% after a big pump
  • AMD: author wants it much lower before adding
  • Micron (MU): wants it much lower before adding
  • Note: despite the pullback, author isn’t worried because semiconductors are still up significantly over recent weeks.

“New Cloud” / Infrastructure / Other Growth Names

  • Nvidia (NVDA): turned red after being green earlier
  • Core Scientific (subtitles say “Core Civic”; likely CORZ): turned red after being green earlier
  • Iron: mentioned around ~$60 (ticker unclear; subtitles ambiguous)
  • Author preference: likes red days as “paper losses,” viewing them as valuation catching up after big moves (10–15% every second day without catalysts).

Fintech / Brokers / Lenders

  • Robinhood (HOOD): “flirting” with ~$81/share
  • SoFi (SOFI): about $17, now back under $16
  • Additional names green (tickers not provided in the subtitles):
    • Avenue (unclear)
    • UnitedHealth (UNH)
    • Medley (unclear)
    • Novo Nordisk (NVO) (green)
    • PayPal (PYPL) (green)
    • DLocal (DLOCAL implied; ticker not stated)
    • Reddit referenced again as up slightly

Specific Investing Framework / Approach (Implied “Dip-Buying” System)

  • Starter position first when a company is:

    • “cheap,” fast-growing, and profitable / free cash flow positive
    • misunderstood
    • monetization/AI licensing is early and “not priced in”

  • Add on further drawdowns for mega-cap winners:

    • Author says they’ll increase Google if it drops more.
    • Wants AMD and Micron “much lower” before adding.

  • Prefer valuation + profitability over hype:

    • In a crash, profitable companies with cash should be positioned to buy assets cheaply.

  • Avoid overpaying for “best-in-class” when valuation is the driver:

    • Example: reluctance to pay CrowdStrike price; prefers Rubrik.

  • Risk management via trimming/timing:

    • Author may close a weak-momentum position (Shift4) if guidance/stock momentum doesn’t improve.

High-level thesis: hype can create temporary dislocations; the author targets buying where valuation and fundamentals (profitability/cash flow) provide a better margin of safety.

Key Stock-Specific Calls, Numbers, and Recommendations

  • Meta (META): “Under $600… no-brainer.”

    • ~17x forward P/E, trailing around ~20x

  • Google (GOOGL/GOOG)

    • TD Cowen target: $475
    • Author: add more on further pullbacks; expects long-term profitability to recover after the AI capex cycle

  • Amazon (AMZN)

    • Target: $300/share (~$2.6T company)
    • Multiples: ~29x trailing, ~27.3x forward P/E
    • Thesis depends on AWS acceleration and capex ramp driving margin gains

  • Uber (UBER)

    • Price cited: ~$70/share, market cap ~$142B
    • Valuation claim: trailing ~17.4 P/E, forward ~17.8 P/E
    • Author says it “should be a $100 stock”
    • Core risk explicitly stated:
      • If Waymo + Tesla capture 90%+ of mobility/delivery, Uber could become structurally less necessary
    • Mitigating view:
      • Author doubts a 90%+ outcome
      • Expects multiple AV players globally
      • Notes ~20 partners, strategic investments, and that Uber is already profitable with strong free cash flow

  • Shift4 (FOUR)

    • Author may take losses and revisit
    • Key issue: zero momentum (business and stock)
    • Decision timeline: hold now, but by Sunday it “it’s not going to be in the portfolio anymore” unless momentum improves

Disclosures / Disclaimers

  • No explicit “not financial advice” disclaimer appeared in the provided subtitles.

Presenters / Sources (Mentioned)

  • Tom Lee (market/SpaceX setup; referenced Sunday)
  • Piper Sandler (notes supporting Reddit)
  • Cleveland Research (notes supporting Reddit advertising improvements)
  • TD Cowen
    • Google $475 price target
    • long-term estimates
  • Mention of Kevin Warsh as the speaker referenced for the upcoming FOMC-related event (“first time he’s going to speak”)

Original video