Summary of "Even Trump voters are mad | Today, Explained"

Episode overview

The episode takes a pulse on Donald Trump’s presidency after a year back in office, amid historically low approval ratings and recent outrage over the killings of two anti‑ICE protesters in Minnesota. It examines whether Trump’s coalition is holding, what’s driving public anger, and the likely political consequences.

Key points

Overall picture and polling

Trump’s approval ratings are near historic lows and have dropped sharply among independents over the past year.
Gains among young and non‑white voters seen in the election year appear to have reversed in recent polls.
The Minnesota incidents (two protesters killed during anti‑ICE demonstrations) have intensified public backlash and spotlighted the administration’s immigration enforcement tactics.

Views from a conservative MAGA voice (John Fredericks)

Fredericks rates Trump’s second term highly and argues Trump has largely delivered on several promises:
- a strong economy,
- border-control measures,
- a major bill passed,
- steadier staffing compared with the first term.
He acknowledges risks and criticisms from within the conservative camp:
- Some worry Trump has been too focused on foreign policy rather than immediate domestic priorities (affordability, housing, interest rates).
On pocketbook issues, Fredericks admits many voters don’t yet feel economic improvements — grocery bills, housing, and borrowing costs still bite — and practical household effects are driving negative sentiment.
He criticizes the administration’s handling of the Epstein files, saying they should have been released sooner.
On the Minnesota killings, Fredericks argues Trump should have followed through on threats to send federal troops sooner to secure the situation; he concedes the violent scenes hurt Republican electoral prospects and urges Republicans to emphasize domestic issues and improve midterm messaging.

Findings from focus groups and swing voters (Sarah Longwell, The Bulwark)

Longwell, who runs regular focus groups with swing and Trump voters, says discontent has been building for months and centers on prices and affordability — the issues voters care about most.
Voters increasingly feel betrayed because Trump promised immediate relief on costs (for example, groceries) and hasn’t delivered quickly enough. When the economy doesn’t feel better at the household level, voters become less forgiving of other Trump actions.
On Minnesota, swing voters generally want a secure border and removal of dangerous criminals but are uneasy with heavy‑handed raids and the optics of masked agents; those scenes look “bad” and can alienate some supporters.
Political impact:
- Longwell argues the backlash will matter most in the near term (helping Democrats in off‑year/midterm contests) because of turnout and structural advantages for Democrats in midterms.
- It will matter less by 2028 unless the GOP’s problems persist.
The Republican party is showing signs of fracturing between:
- “America First” populists (e.g., figures like Marjorie Taylor Greene, Tucker Carlson), and
- establishment/MAGA institutional figures (e.g., JD Vance, Marco Rubio, Mike Johnson).
- Without Trump holding the coalition together, the party may struggle to find a unifying direction. Vance, in particular, is not very popular with many swing voters, especially women.

Bottom line

Trump’s base remains committed in many quarters, but cracks are appearing. Economic frustration and poor optics around immigration enforcement are eroding support among some voters, including former Trump voters and swing voters. Republicans risk losing ground in the midterms unless the administration pivots quickly to deliver tangible household economic relief, sharpens messaging, and moderates enforcement optics. Longer‑term consequences depend on whether Trump’s approval drops further and how the GOP reorganizes without him.