Summary of "Daily Market Recap - Jan 26, 2026 - Market Inflection Point"
Daily Market Recap - Jan 26, 2026 - Market Inflection Point
Presenter: Tom (Trading Apologist)
Market Overview & Macroeconomic Context
- Major sector rotation is underway ahead of key events this week, including the FOMC meeting on Wednesday and significant tech earnings.
- Geopolitical tensions remain unsettled (details generalized due to content restrictions).
- Japanese yen weakness discussed; potential near-term US intervention by selling dollars to buy yen could be positive for risk assets but signals systemic cracks in the long term.
- The US dollar has dropped over 3% in the last few days, indicating a breakdown and potential new downtrend.
- Volatility has surged in metals and commodities; silver and natural gas experienced large intraday swings (~20% in silver).
- Crypto shows relative strength but remains at a critical support level, with Bitcoin needing to clear $91,500 to confirm recovery.
Key Upcoming Earnings & Events
- Tuesday: Seagate (STX), Texas Instruments (TXN)
- Wednesday: ASML, Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA), Lam Research (LRCX)
- Thursday: Apple (AAPL), Sandisk, Caterpillar (CAT), Western Digital (WDC), Deckers (DECK) (noted as a trade re-entry candidate)
- Tomorrow: UnitedHealth Group (UNH) earnings; recent congressional selling ahead of Medicare announcement has negatively impacted the healthcare sector.
Indices & Sector Performance
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S&P 500 (ES1 futures): Gap down over the weekend, rallied through the day, approaching key resistance from April 2025 tariff lows; room to run on RSI and mean reversion.
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NASDAQ (NQ futures): Stronger overnight price action; broke above key resistance (~25,850); showing relative strength led by mega-cap tech.
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Russell 2000: Flat on Monday; underperformed Friday; generally outperforming small caps but less strength than S&P and NASDAQ.
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Hang Seng Index (HSI): Showing breakout strength; bullish flag pattern forming; positive outlook on Bilibili (BILI).
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SMH (Semiconductors ETF): Underperforming last two days; Nvidia (NVDA) weak; Albemarle (ALAB) sold off; potential for finding footing but caution advised.
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XLF (Financials ETF): Potential breakdown from rising wedge pattern; price target near breakout zone from 1.5 years ago; possible support at 200-day moving average; breakdown could take weeks/months.
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XLE (Energy ETF): Uptrend intact but nearing levels for correction; measured move target around $54.
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XLV (Healthcare ETF): Hit hard after Medicare expansion announcement canceled; UNH dropped 10% in a single 4-hour candle; signs of potential lower high and sell-off, but above 200-day moving average; earnings could be a catalyst.
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Biotech: Slight pullback but holding support after flag breakout; bearish divergence on RSI; cautious but still leading sector.
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Consumer Staples: Consolidating with mild strength; large flag pattern; possible defensive positioning ahead.
Commodities & Crypto
Commodities
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Silver: Extreme volatility with near 20% intraday swings; price near $110; caution against chasing moves; recommendation to lock in profits due to vertical run and potential for cascade selling.
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Natural Gas: Volatile with a short squeeze; peaked around $7.43, pulled back to $6.60; uncertain outlook; cold weather news-driven; caution on shorting immediately.
Crypto
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Bitcoin (BTC): Holding last line of support; needs to break above $91,500 for confirmation of recovery.
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Solana (SOL): Double bottom formation; recovering but resistance near 1266; dependent on Bitcoin’s direction.
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Coinbase (COIN): Approaching key support zone near $206-$209; potential turnaround area; bullish divergence on daily; invalidation below $200.
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Celsius (CEL): Locked in profits on March 20 calls; flag breakout area support near $49-$50; watching for further price-based support.
Individual Stocks & Trades
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Tesla (TSLA): Struggling near $450 resistance; support zone between $426-$435; earnings Thursday critical.
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Adobe (ADBE): Broke multi-year support last week; oversold on multiple timeframes; closed above $305; resistance near $323; potential entry with bullish divergences.
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Albemarle (ALAB): Sold April calls to reduce risk; RSI deviation and support near $160 and $154; still higher lows but being tactical due to volatility.
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Hims (HIMS): Approaching support zone $26-$28; earnings on Monday, Feb 2; institutional buying despite price weakness; downtrend still intact but nearing potential reversal.
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Robinhood (HOOD): Flirting with breakdown below 200-day moving average; caution advised; potential hedge with inverse ETF or puts if breakdown occurs.
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Uranium Energy Corp (USR): US took a 10% stake over weekend; price surged 67% to near $40, then sold off; closed below 50% retracement; watching for support near $24.80; volatile but profitable trade.
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RMX ETF (Rare Metals): Also volatile with a negative day; tracking metals sector rotation.
Methodology / Framework
- Use confluence model clouds and mean reversion dots to identify support/resistance and overbought/oversold conditions.
- Watch RSI levels and divergences across multiple timeframes (4-hour, daily, weekly) for entry/exit signals.
- Monitor key technical levels such as trend lines, 200-day moving averages, Fibonacci retracements (e.g., 61.8% fib for HOOD).
- Use price action to lead decisions rather than prediction; let earnings and macro events guide positioning.
- Take profits tactically in volatile environments, especially with short expiry options.
- Hedge long positions if critical support levels break, preferably when volatility is low to optimize cost.
Key Numbers & Levels
- Dollar down ~3% since Jan 15; resistance bounce expected near 97.7-97.8.
- Silver volatility: $118 high to $102 low intraday; resistance near $110.
- Natural gas resistance near $7-$7.5.
- NASDAQ key resistance ~25,850.
- Tesla support zone: $426-$435; resistance near $450.
- Adobe support near $305; resistance near $323.
- Albemarle support near $160 and $154.
- Hims support $26-$28.
- Coinbase support $206-$209; invalidation below $200.
- Bitcoin resistance $91,500.
- Uranium Energy Corp price target $26.68; key support $24.80; recent high near $40.
Recommendations & Cautions
- Avoid chasing extreme moves in silver and natural gas; consider locking in profits.
- Watch healthcare and financials for potential breakdowns; earnings and Medicare news are catalysts.
- Be cautious with tech stocks; mega-cap tech showing strength but earnings will be key.
- Hedge positions if key technical support breaks, especially in volatile names like HOOD.
- Let price action and earnings guide trades rather than predictions.
- Crypto remains speculative; watch key support and resistance levels closely.
- Slow down new entries this week; focus on managing risk and taking profits.
Disclaimers
Not financial advice. Past results are not indicative of future performance. Do your own research.
Presenter: Tom, Trading Apologist
Category
Finance
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