Summary of "Americans Are Moving. Are You Investing in the Right State?"
Summary
The video discusses recent U.S. domestic migration trends and their implications for real estate investing and market analysis.
Net Migration Trends by State
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Top Gain States:
- South Carolina leads with a net migration ratio of +12, indicating very strong inflows.
- Idaho follows closely with nearly +10, showing significant growth since the pandemic started.
- Other growth areas include the Southeast (Sun Belt) and Mountain West regions.
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Top Loss States:
- New York has the largest net outflow at -7.
- Hawaii and Alaska also experience significant population declines.
- California continues to lose residents, with an annual outflow around 230,000, though this is less severe than during the pandemic peak.
Migration Volume Context
Overall migration volumes have decreased compared to the pandemic period, which saw abnormal spikes. For example, Florida’s net migration dropped from over 300,000 during the pandemic to about 23,000 currently.
Investment Implications
- State-level migration data provides a broad picture but is less actionable for investors.
- More granular, city-level migration and housing demand data is recommended for underwriting real estate deals and forecasting rental market performance.
- Understanding where rental and housing demand is growing or shrinking at the city level is critical for portfolio construction and risk management in real estate investments.
Methodology and Framework for Investors
- Use migration data as a macroeconomic indicator for housing demand.
- Prioritize city-level data over state-level data for deal underwriting.
- Analyze net migration trends to assess rental demand growth or contraction.
- Incorporate migration trends into forecasting rental income and property performance.
Key Numbers
- South Carolina net migration ratio: +12
- Idaho net migration ratio: ~+10
- New York net migration ratio: -7
- California annual outflow: ~230,000 residents
- Florida current net migration: +23,000 (down from 300,000+ during pandemic)
Tickers, Assets, and Sectors Mentioned
- Real estate (rental housing market)
- Geographic focus: States (SC, ID, NY, HI, AK, CA, FL), regions (Sun Belt, Mountain West)
Disclaimers
Data is useful but not the sole factor in investment decisions. The video does not explicitly provide financial advice.
Presenter/Source
The presenter or source is not explicitly named in the subtitles provided.
Category
Finance
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