Summary of آیا ایران برای تقابل نظامی احتمالی با اسرائیل و آمریکا آماده است؟ گفتگو با مهدی بختیاری دبیر تسنیم

The video features an in-depth interview with Mehdi Bakhtiari, military secretary of the Tasnim News Agency, discussing Iran’s military readiness in the face of escalating tensions and potential military conflict with Israel and the United States.

Key Points and Analyses:

  1. Current Tensions and War Prospects
    • Media from the US, UK, and Israel have intensified war rhetoric, suggesting Israel may attack Iran soon.
    • Bakhtiari emphasizes that any attack would likely target Iran’s critical infrastructure and strategic centers, with Iran responding in kind.
    • Both sides would act cautiously due to the potential heavy damage from retaliation.
  2. Iran’s Air Defense Status
    • Israel claims it damaged Iran’s air defenses in last year’s Operation Mehr Mah, limiting Iran’s ability to defend its airspace.
    • Iranian commanders acknowledge weaknesses exposed but stress ongoing efforts to strengthen air defense, including new systems to be unveiled soon.
    • Despite any damage, Iran’s missile capabilities and ability to bypass defenses remain significant deterrents.
  3. Military Exercises and Propaganda
    • Recent reports of heightened alert levels and troop movements are partly due to nationwide military exercises focusing on air defense and missile/drone capabilities.
    • Much of the tension-building news is seen as psychological warfare or propaganda.
  4. Iran’s Strategic Targets and Defense Depth
    • Iran has long worked to protect key military and nuclear sites by placing them deep underground to withstand advanced bombings.
    • Israel’s potential targets now include refineries, power plants, and other infrastructure, aiming to disrupt daily life.
  5. New Iranian Weapons and Deterrence
    • Iran has unveiled new missiles, likely an advanced version of the Khorramshahr missile with heavier warheads, increasing destructive capability.
    • New drone technologies are also part of Iran’s expanding arsenal, contributing to deterrence.
    • However, there is criticism that recent military developments have not reached a new level of deterrence or showcased Iran’s full capabilities publicly.
  6. Impact of Sanctions on Military Capability
    • Sanctions, especially nuclear-related, complicate Iran’s military procurement but have not crippled its indigenous defense industry.
    • Over 67-70% of Iran’s military equipment is domestically produced, allowing ongoing modernization despite external pressures.
  7. Rumors and Military Acquisitions
    • Claims about Iran acquiring advanced Russian systems like the Panzer Asfan air defense or Sukhoi-34/35 fighters remain unconfirmed and are likely exaggerated or misinformation.
    • Discussions about cutting-edge technologies like quantum radar or electromagnetic pulse weapons are regarded as rumors without official confirmation.
  8. Assassination Threats
    • Assassinations of Iranian military figures by Israel are acknowledged as a serious and ongoing threat.
    • Recent rumors about an assassination attempt on IRGC Aerospace Commander Hajizadeh were confirmed false, but the risk remains high.
  9. Military Confidence and Public Perception
    • The post-Syria and post-Hassan Nasrallah era has somewhat diminished the image of Iran’s invincibility, affecting societal military confidence.
    • Bakhtiari stresses that Iran’s ability to respond to attacks remains credible and that Israel fears Iranian retaliation.
    • The lack of effective media communication and demonstration of military successes weakens public perception and Iran’s deterrence messaging.
  10. Likelihood of War and Political Will
    • Bakhtiari believes the current international situation is not leading to immediate war.
    • Political will, economic conditions, and social factors weigh heavily on the decision to engage in conflict.
    • Militarily, Iran cannot match US or Israeli capabilities one-to-one but maintains sufficient deterrence to prevent large-scale war.

Conclusion

From a military standpoint, Iran has significant defensive and offensive capabilities, especially in missile technology and air defense improvements underway. However, challenges remain in public communication, media portrayal, and overcoming sanctions. The risk of assassination remains a serious security concern. Overall, while the threat of war is being amplified by foreign media and psychological operations, Bakhtiari suggests Iran is prepared to respond effectively and that political and economic factors currently limit the likelihood of full-scale conflict.

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