Summary of ТРАМП РАЗРУШАЕТ ЭКОНОМИКУ/ НЕФТЬ УДАРИЛА ПО ПУТИНУ/ В РОССИИ БОЛЬШИЕ ПРОБЛЕМЫ С ДЕНЬГАМИ. Милов

The video discusses the current economic situation in the United States and Russia, focusing on the impact of Donald Trump's policies, particularly regarding tariffs and oil prices, and their implications for both economies.

Key Points:

• Trump's Tariff Policies:
  • Trump's introduction of tariffs has created a trade war, particularly with China. Current tariffs against China are reported to be as high as 145%, leading to a significant reduction in mutual trade.
  • The market initially reacted positively to Trump's announcement of a 90-day suspension of additional tariffs, but analysts suggest this was misleading as the fundamental tariffs remained high.
• Insider Trading Concerns:
  • There are allegations of insider trading linked to Trump's tariff announcements, with significant stock purchases occurring just before his public statements. This raises ethical concerns regarding market manipulation.
• Impact on American and Chinese Economies:
  • The ongoing trade war is expected to have adverse effects on both economies, with American shale oil producers potentially facing extinction if oil prices fall below $50.
  • China has reduced its dependence on the U.S. market and is better prepared for the trade conflict, while American allies, such as Taiwan, are likely to suffer more from the tariffs.
• Oil Prices and Russian Economy:
  • Oil prices have recently dipped, affecting Russia's economy significantly. The Russian budget is heavily reliant on oil revenues, and lower prices could lead to a budget crisis.
  • The Russian Central Bank warns of potential economic shocks due to falling oil prices, reminiscent of the USSR's economic collapse in the 1980s.
• Budget Deficits and Military Spending:
  • Russia is facing increasing budget deficits due to high military spending amidst a declining revenue stream from oil. The government is expected to cut costs and may resort to printing more money, leading to higher inflation.
• Consumer Confidence and Inflation:
  • In the U.S., consumer confidence has plummeted to historical lows, indicating potential economic recession. Inflation rates remain high, and the Central Bank's policies are not expected to lower interest rates soon.
• Regional Economic Issues in Russia:
  • The Russian government is experiencing a financial crunch, leading to austerity measures affecting regional economies. There are concerns about rising inflation and a potential economic downturn.
• European Sanctions on Russia:
  • The European Union is preparing to tighten sanctions on Russia in response to ongoing geopolitical tensions, despite the economic costs associated with reducing reliance on Russian energy.
• Real Estate Market Trends:
  • The real estate market in Russia has shown signs of price increases, but analysts predict a downturn if economic conditions worsen, drawing parallels to the 2008 financial crisis.

Overall, the video highlights the interconnectedness of U.S. and Russian economies and the potential ramifications of current policies on global markets, particularly in the context of trade wars and oil dependency.

Contributors:

• Vladimir Milov
• The video also references various analysts and sources, including Bloomberg and Financial Times.

Notable Quotes

— 03:07 — « This means that inflation, well, it will be with us for a long time now, yes, until this whole nightmare ends. »

— 03:07 — « This is such an untimely blow to small businesses, retail trade, economic activity and, ultimately, the well-being of people that it is simply difficult to come up with. »

— 03:07 — « If you want to do this, you need to hold it straight and show that this is for centuries now and not for one term. »

— 03:07 — « This is a disaster comrades that is they adopted a law at the end of the year which allowed the regions to take measures to limit all sorts of different restrictions on the sale of alcohol. »

— 03:07 — « Trump's actions against the countries of Southeast Asia are all this, Vietnam, Cambodia, Indonesia, etc., yes, of course, he will now turn them towards China. »

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News and Commentary

Video