Summary of 100 дней Трампа: радость сырьевой сделки с Украиной. Илия Куса, Юрий Романенко

The video provides an in-depth analysis and commentary on the first 100 days of Donald Trump’s presidency, focusing on his foreign policy actions, geopolitical shifts, and the recently signed raw materials deal with Ukraine. The discussion is led by Ilya Kusa and Yuri Romanenko, who dissect Trump’s approach region by region and assess the broader implications for global politics and Ukraine’s position.

Key Points:

1. Trump’s Foreign Policy Style and Executive Activity

• Trump signed a record-breaking 142 executive orders in his first 100 days, surpassing FDR’s record during the Great Depression.
• His approach is described as aggressive and chaotic, with strong moves on multiple fronts including tariff wars and trade conflicts, which alarmed allies and markets.
• Despite a drop in his approval ratings and strained relations with traditional allies (e.g., Canada), Trump pursued a clear agenda rather than election bluffs.

2. Africa

• The U.S. played a limited role in African conflicts, such as the escalation in the Democratic Republic of Congo, deteriorating relations with South Africa over alleged discrimination issues, and visa bans on South Sudanese citizens amid political unrest.
• The U.S. appears to be deprioritizing Africa, leaving room for China, Russia, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and others to expand influence.

3. Latin America

• U.S. engagement focused on supporting allies like Javier Milei in Argentina and monitoring Brazil’s political turmoil without direct interference.
• Conflicts included a brief dispute with Colombia over deportation flights and renewed sanctions on Cuba.
• The U.S. succeeded in pushing Chinese companies out of Panama Canal port management, aiming to curb China’s regional influence.
• Sanctions on Venezuela intensified, targeting oil extraction and economic activity.

4. North America

• Trade conflicts with Canada and Mexico were temporarily suspended but remain unresolved, with ongoing negotiations anticipated.
• Canada’s political landscape shifted with Trudeau’s party retaining power partly due to opposition to Trump’s rhetoric, which alienated Canadian conservatives.
• Canada is diversifying defense and trade relations towards Europe, signaling a move away from dependence on the U.S.
• Mexico cooperated on drug cartel issues, with the U.S. labeling cartels as terrorist organizations and threatening military action.

5. Asia and China

• Trump’s policy continues Obama’s “Asia Pivot,” focusing on alliances like the Quad (U.S., Japan, South Korea, India) to counter China.
• Trump introduced tariffs on Taiwan (except semiconductors) and criticized its semiconductor monopoly, pushing for partial relocation of production to the U.S.
• The administration’s stance on China is pragmatic: prioritizing trade deficit reduction and economic negotiations rather than regime change or military confrontation.
• Analysts see Trump’s China policy as a continuation with a more transactional and less ideological approach.

6. Middle East

• The U.S. began withdrawing troops from Syria and launched air operations against Houthis in Yemen, though results remain uncertain with ongoing Houthi missile and drone capabilities.
• Negotiations with Iran have restarted indirectly through Oman, with the U.S. apparently abandoning demands for full nuclear disarmament in favor of limits on uranium enrichment and inspections, echoing the 2015 deal framework.
• The situation in Gaza remains volatile, with Trump’s peace proposals largely unsuccessful and the ceasefire breaking down.

7. Europe and Ukraine

• Ukraine remains a central issue in U.S.-European security, with the Ukrainian conflict shaping transatlantic relations and European unity.
• Trump faced pressure to keep Ukraine in focus, resulting in the signing of a raw materials deal between the U.S. and Ukraine.
• The deal is primarily economic, focused on mineral resource management, with the U.S. securing stronger positions and potential long-term financial gains, but benefits to Ukraine are uncertain and likely delayed by years.
• The agreement includes provisions for military aid to Ukraine to be counted as investments but does not obligate the U.S. to supply weapons, leaving room for political maneuvering.
• The deal is seen as a “treaty of instability,” allowing ongoing military actions and tying aid to the conflict’s duration.
• Analysts caution that the deal is not a Marshall Plan–style comprehensive aid package but a framework for future economic cooperation post-conflict.
• The signing was rushed under U.S. pressure, with Ukrainian authorities reportedly unhappy with some terms, and the parliamentary ratification is expected amid intense political maneuvering.
• The future of U.S. involvement in Ukraine depends heavily on negotiations with Russia and Trump’s political calculations.

8. Broader Geopolitical and Strategic Themes

• The U.S. is grappling with its identity as a moral leader versus a transactional power focused on military and economic strength. This internal debate shapes policies towards Russia, China, Iran, and Israel.
• The transatlantic alliance is fractured, with European countries and Canada moving to diversify partnerships and reduce reliance on the

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