Road To Profitability: DOL + Daily Bias

Summary — finance-specific takeaways

Core concepts

• Drawn liquidity (primary concept): identify where price “needs to go next” by asking whether the market must:
  • hunt liquidity (swing highs/lows),
  • rebalance imbalances / inefficiencies (fair value gaps — FVG / FVJ),
  • or rebalance equilibrium (50% fib).
• Markets alternate between internal-range liquidity and external-range liquidity.
• Bias types:
  • Conditional bias: set explicit conditions (if X happens → target Y; if Y happens → target X). Used when price has conflicting draws and direction is uncertain.
  • Directional bias: used when order flow alignment is clear and there is a single, obvious drawn liquidity (trade in that aligned direction).
• Order flow alignment requirement: do not trade a drawn liquidity unless price action / PD arrays (directional order-flow structure on lower timeframes) are being respected in the same direction as your drawn liquidity.

Methodology — step-by-step framework

1. Ask: what does price need to do next?
   • Has a high/low been swept?
   • Are there unfilled imbalances / FVGs?
   • Has equilibrium been rebalanced?
2. Classify the draw as external (swing highs/lows) or internal (FVGs, equilibrium).
3. Look for order flow alignment: respect / disrespect of PD arrays (lower-timeframe FVGs / gaps) in the direction of the draw.
4. Only finalize a trade once you have:
   • an entry model (lower-timeframe entry), and
   • stacked confluence (timeframe alignment + order flow + liquidity target).

• Conditional bias setup:
  • Define explicit if/then conditions (e.g., if price does A → target B; if price does B → target A).
• Directional bias setup:
  • Confirm swept highs/lows + unfilled FVG + order flow respecting aligned PD arrays → treat as directional trade.
• Daily bias from previous day:
  • If previous day closes above prior-day high → bias to “take high.”
  • If previous day closes below prior-day low → bias to “take low.”
  • Use previous-day close direction together with context (not as a standalone rule).

High-probability drawn liquidities (ranked by the speaker)

• Data wicks (news wicks): 1-minute candle wicks created at major macro releases (CPI, PPI, NFP, FOMC, unemployment claims). Speaker claims very high revisit rate of wick extremes.
• New day / new week opening gaps: gap between prior close and current open. Treated like FVGs and commonly filled (speaker claims high fill rate; new-week gaps especially).
  • Mentioned indicator: “ICT new week opening gap / new day opening gap” by LuxAlgo on TradingView.
• Equal highs / equal lows: identical-price swing highs or lows. High-probability draws because they represent concentrated liquidity; stacked equal highs/lows strengthen the target.

Timeframes, tools, and instruments

• Timeframe examples used: 4-hour FVG, 15-minute FVG / PD arrays, 1-minute data wick, daily candle for daily-bias rules.
• Tools / platforms: TradingView, LuxAlgo indicator, Forex Factory (news calendar).
• Instruments referenced: futures (NQ — Nasdaq futures; ES referenced), gold, “MGC,” forex (news-sensitive setups), general futures contracts.

Key numbers, probabilities, and timelines (speaker’s claims)

• Drawn liquidity identification: claimed ~90% correct (speaker’s assertion; anecdotal).
• Data wicks: claimed hit rate ~90% (speaker sometimes used ~99% in remarks).
• New day/week opening gaps: claimed ~90% fill rate; new-week gaps higher.
• Previous-day high/low method: suggested to “work like 80% of the time.”
• Common macro-release times: many macro releases cited around 08:30 New York time (speaker’s TradingView / Forex Factory setup).

Explicit recommendations, cautions, and trading rules

• Never be “married” to a bias — be ready to change the narrative based on price and order flow.
• Do not place stops at unmitigated FVGs (these are low-resistance zones — poor stop locations).
• Do not trade to a drawn liquidity unless order flow alignment (PD arrays respected) confirms the move.
• Be cautious trading news: payouts can be denied when trading news; volatility is extreme — use risk controls.
• Avoid shorting inside an opening gap until the gap is filled — prefer waiting for the fill.
• Use multi-timeframe confluence and a specific lower-timeframe entry model before taking trades toward a drawn liquidity.

Performance and metrics

• Presenter references winning trades using these methods (anecdotal).
• No systematic backtest or verified performance metrics provided; high hit-rate assertions are anecdotal and not formally documented.

Disclosures and speaker caveats

• The speaker explicitly states nothing works 100%.
• Some claims are admitted speculation (e.g., algorithmic behavior around data wicks).
• Warnings about denied payouts and risks of trading during news.
• Presenter notes he does not sell a course (mentions a waitlist but not a paid course).

Terms and shorthand (as used by the presenter)

• FVJ / FVG: fair value gaps / unfilled imbalances.
• Equilibrium: midpoint (~50% fib) of a move.
• PD arrays: lower-timeframe price/PD structures used to judge order-flow alignment.
• Data wick: the 1-minute candle wick created at major macro announcements (top and bottom extremes).
• New day/week opening gap: price difference between prior close and current open.

Practical homework (speaker’s suggestion)

• Identify draws on liquidity on a higher timeframe.
• Drop to a lower timeframe and ask “what price needs to do next.”
• Only act when order flow aligns and you have a clear lower-timeframe entry model.

Presenters, sources, and events cited

• Presenter: Hoss (also self-references as “Hustle”).
• Platforms / indicators / sources: TradingView, LuxAlgo (ICT new week/new day opening gap indicator), Forex Factory.
• Macro events cited: CPI, PPI, NFP, FOMC, unemployment claims.
• Instruments: NQ (Nasdaq futures), ES (S&P futures), gold, “MGC.”

Note: Most probability figures and performance claims are anecdotal and come from the speaker’s personal trading experience; no formal backtested results were supplied.