Summary of "Het echte verhaal over Dubai vandaag"

Overview

Remco Koerman shares an on-the-ground update on Dubai, prompted by questions from viewers about whether residents should leave and what the near future holds. He emphasizes that his conclusions are based on observation and informed prediction—not complete certainty.

1) Dubai feels “reset”: far less traffic and fewer crowds

Koerman notes that after dropping his daughter at a daycare reopened “since last week,” things still do not feel fully back to normal.
He repeatedly highlights the quiet on the roads compared with earlier months:
- fewer traffic jams
- fewer non-essential people around
He connects this to Dubai being “too busy” after heavy development, followed by a “natural reset,” where temporary residents and passers-by leave while those planning to stay longer remain.

2) Tourism and hospitality are hit hard—less travel, not increased danger

Koerman’s biggest economic concern is the collapse in hospitality:
- hotels and restaurants are struggling, closing, or renovating
He argues Dubai isn’t uniquely dangerous for tourists. Instead:
- many Europeans can’t get travel insurance anymore, discouraging travel
He also references the regional security situation:
- drones and strikes
- buildings being hit
- disruptions in parts of government activity
- he notes there is currently a ceasefire, but expresses uncertainty about its duration.

3) Real estate strain: supply surge, off-plan risk, and panic selling

He points to a major oversupply in housing inventory:
- in Arabian Ranches 3, many units appear vacant even as construction nears completion
- online listings show numerous properties for rent and sale
He reports owners selling “in a panic.”
Off-plan buyers, he says, are effectively trapped in payment schedules until completion.
His overall message: confidence is damaged and the housing market is deteriorating.
- He warns against investing now—especially off-plan—unless money is not needed and risks are understood.

4) Cost of living pressure: prices rising broadly

Koerman says fuel prices have risen significantly (he estimates around a 15% increase) and that gasoline is at the highest level he has personally seen.
He observes broader inflation across everyday entertainment, citing that cinema prices for his children have reportedly more than doubled.
He contrasts this with regulated staple items (e.g., eggs) that remain controlled by government price regulation.

5) Wider energy/political context

Koerman mentions that Dubai/UAE has announced it is leaving OPEC, and says he will explain the deeper reasons in another video.
He suggests the “oil-production” narrative being promoted is politically complex, and he does not expect it to immediately change global oil prices given the UAE’s limited direct influence.

6) Business activity is mixed: some stabilization, but “not business as usual”

He describes business setup progress using a free-zone LLC structure:
- last week he had about 15 people in Dubai without major issues
However, travel remains constrained:
- many airlines are not operating
- travel via certain carriers (he mentions Emirates) is more expensive
- he estimates airline costs/tickets are up roughly 40% compared with three months earlier
Even with some operational conveniences (e.g., some banking/account processes possible remotely), he reiterates that:
- layoffs
- closures
- reduced tourism mean Dubai’s downturn is ongoing.

7) Investment outlook: wait for stabilization

Koerman’s conclusion is strongly cautious: he does not expect conditions to improve soon.
He predicts it will take a long time for confidence to return.
He claims:
- housing and rentals are already declining steeply
- prices have dropped more than in Europe
- rentals are “collapsing”
He advises waiting until around September/October or early next year, suggesting opportunities will eventually appear—but not now.