Summary of "Monthly Analysis | November 1st Week | 2025 | Vijay Thakkar"

Monthly Analysis | November 1st Week | 2025 | Vijay Thakkar

Market Overview & Macroeconomic Context

October ended with mixed market performance; early week gains were erased by losses on Thursday and Friday, resulting in a negative weekly close.
Overall market trend is mildly bullish but currently in a consolidation phase near all-time highs.
Historical context: Since 2008, markets have experienced alternating bull and bear phases within longer consolidation periods. Recent months (since July 2023) show a small bull run within a broader sideways market.
Key resistance and support levels:
- Nifty support zone: 23,400–23,500
- Resistance levels: 26,277 and all-time highs near current levels.
Bank Nifty is outperforming Nifty, trading above its all-time high, driven by strong financial and NBFC sector results in Q2.
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) showed net selling for most of the last week except one day, which is a cautionary sign.
Macro factors:
- Dollar Index around 99
- Undervix near 12.15
- Crude oil at approximately $61/barrel
- USD IAR at 8,872 These remain stable but FI selling remains a concern.

Sector Analysis

Strong sectors last week: PSU Banks, Oil & Gas, Metals, Commodities, Energy.
Strong sectors last month: Financial Services (especially capital markets), Real Estate, IT, Telecom, PSU Banks, Oil & Gas.
Metal sector recently broke out of a major consolidation and is trading at all-time highs.
PSU Banks broke out in December 2023 after 13 years, had a rally, corrected, and now are breaking previous highs again.

Stock Picks & Technical Setups

Canara Bank (PSU Bank)
- Forming a classic cup and handle pattern on monthly charts.
- Recent breakout above ₹130; support at ₹120 (below which setup invalidates).
- Next resistance at ₹164; breakout above this could lead to further rally.
- Q2 results were positive.
- Weekly chart shows minor cooldown but long-term trend remains bullish.
Tattvachintan Pharma
- Listed in 2022; peaked in Nov 2022, then corrected ~80%.
- Recent volume spikes coincide with quarterly results, indicating renewed interest.
- Recent breakout around ₹1,280.
- Support at ₹1,150; resistance levels at ₹1,650, ₹1,875, and ₹2,500.
- Reversal setup confirmed by volume and price action.
RBL Bank
- Listed in 2016, performed well till 2019, then corrected ~90%.
- Sideways/downtrend since 2020, not breaking Covid highs.
- Recent positive developments include potential stake acquisition by a Dubai-based company.
- Reversal at ₹300; support at ₹250 (break below invalidates setup).
- Long-term downtrend appears to have ended.
Bajaj Consumer
- Monthly chart shows it has not yet broken out.
- Key breakout level: ₹285–₹290.
- Watch for breakout confirmation.
HG Graphite and HLE Glass
- Both stocks showing strong price action.
- HLE Glass made a reversal breakout near ₹390.
- Detailed analysis videos may be made upon viewer request.

Methodology / Analytical Framework

Use multi-timeframe analysis (monthly, weekly, daily) to understand price action and volume trends.
Identify major breakouts, especially after long consolidation or correction phases.
Look for classic chart patterns such as cup and handle.
Track volume spikes around quarterly results to confirm interest and validate reversals.
Monitor key support and resistance levels to validate or invalidate setups.
Consider sector strength and macroeconomic context alongside individual stock analysis.
Watch FIIs activity as a market sentiment indicator.

Key Numbers & Levels

Nifty: Support 23,400–23,500; resistance 26,277 and all-time highs.
Canara Bank: Breakout above ₹130; support ₹120; resistance ₹164.
Tattvachintan Pharma: Breakout ₹1,280; support ₹1,150; resistances ₹1,650, ₹1,875, ₹2,500.
RBL Bank: Reversal level ₹300; support ₹250.
Bajaj Consumer: Breakout level ₹285–₹290.
Crude oil price: ~$61/barrel.
Dollar Index: ~99.
Undervix: ~12.15.
USD IAR: ~8,872.

Recommendations & Cautions

Focus on metal and PSU bank sectors for potential gains.
Canara Bank, Tattvachintan Pharma, and RBL Bank are strong candidates based on recent breakouts and fundamental triggers.
Watch key support levels closely; break below these invalidates bullish setups.
FI selling is a cautionary factor; monitor foreign flows.
No direct buy/sell/hold recommendations are given; viewers should conduct their own analysis.
Always consider multi-year and multi-timeframe price action before trading.

Disclaimers

Presenter Vijay Thakkar is a SEBI registered research analyst. No explicit buy/sell/hold recommendations are provided. Analysis is educational, focusing on chart reading, price action, volume, and sector trends. Viewers should perform their own due diligence before making investment decisions.