Monthly Analysis | November 1st Week | 2025 | Vijay Thakkar

Monthly Analysis | November 1st Week | 2025 | Vijay Thakkar

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Market Overview & Macroeconomic Context

• October ended with mixed market performance; early week gains were erased by losses on Thursday and Friday, resulting in a negative weekly close.
• Overall market trend is mildly bullish but currently in a consolidation phase near all-time highs.
• Historical context: Since 2008, markets have experienced alternating bull and bear phases within longer consolidation periods. Recent months (since July 2023) show a small bull run within a broader sideways market.
• Key resistance and support levels:
  • Nifty support zone: 23,400–23,500
  • Resistance levels: 26,277 and all-time highs near current levels.
• Bank Nifty is outperforming Nifty, trading above its all-time high, driven by strong financial and NBFC sector results in Q2.
• Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) showed net selling for most of the last week except one day, which is a cautionary sign.
• Macro factors:
  • Dollar Index around 99
  • Undervix near 12.15
  • Crude oil at approximately $61/barrel
  • USD IAR at 8,872 These remain stable but FI selling remains a concern.

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Sector Analysis

• Strong sectors last week: PSU Banks, Oil & Gas, Metals, Commodities, Energy.
• Strong sectors last month: Financial Services (especially capital markets), Real Estate, IT, Telecom, PSU Banks, Oil & Gas.
• Metal sector recently broke out of a major consolidation and is trading at all-time highs.
• PSU Banks broke out in December 2023 after 13 years, had a rally, corrected, and now are breaking previous highs again.

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Stock Picks & Technical Setups

1. Canara Bank (PSU Bank)

   • Forming a classic cup and handle pattern on monthly charts.
   • Recent breakout above ₹130; support at ₹120 (below which setup invalidates).
   • Next resistance at ₹164; breakout above this could lead to further rally.
   • Q2 results were positive.
   • Weekly chart shows minor cooldown but long-term trend remains bullish.

2. Tattvachintan Pharma

   • Listed in 2022; peaked in Nov 2022, then corrected ~80%.
   • Recent volume spikes coincide with quarterly results, indicating renewed interest.
   • Recent breakout around ₹1,280.
   • Support at ₹1,150; resistance levels at ₹1,650, ₹1,875, and ₹2,500.
   • Reversal setup confirmed by volume and price action.

3. RBL Bank

   • Listed in 2016, performed well till 2019, then corrected ~90%.
   • Sideways/downtrend since 2020, not breaking Covid highs.
   • Recent positive developments include potential stake acquisition by a Dubai-based company.
   • Reversal at ₹300; support at ₹250 (break below invalidates setup).
   • Long-term downtrend appears to have ended.

4. Bajaj Consumer

   • Monthly chart shows it has not yet broken out.
   • Key breakout level: ₹285–₹290.
   • Watch for breakout confirmation.

5. HG Graphite and HLE Glass

   • Both stocks showing strong price action.
   • HLE Glass made a reversal breakout near ₹390.
   • Detailed analysis videos may be made upon viewer request.

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Methodology / Analytical Framework

• Use multi-timeframe analysis (monthly, weekly, daily) to understand price action and volume trends.
• Identify major breakouts, especially after long consolidation or correction phases.
• Look for classic chart patterns such as cup and handle.
• Track volume spikes around quarterly results to confirm interest and validate reversals.
• Monitor key support and resistance levels to validate or invalidate setups.
• Consider sector strength and macroeconomic context alongside individual stock analysis.
• Watch FIIs activity as a market sentiment indicator.

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Key Numbers & Levels

• Nifty: Support 23,400–23,500; resistance 26,277 and all-time highs.
• Canara Bank: Breakout above ₹130; support ₹120; resistance ₹164.
• Tattvachintan Pharma: Breakout ₹1,280; support ₹1,150; resistances ₹1,650, ₹1,875, ₹2,500.
• RBL Bank: Reversal level ₹300; support ₹250.
• Bajaj Consumer: Breakout level ₹285–₹290.
• Crude oil price: ~$61/barrel.
• Dollar Index: ~99.
• Undervix: ~12.15.
• USD IAR: ~8,872.

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Recommendations & Cautions

• Focus on metal and PSU bank sectors for potential gains.
• Canara Bank, Tattvachintan Pharma, and RBL Bank are strong candidates based on recent breakouts and fundamental triggers.
• Watch key support levels closely; break below these invalidates bullish setups.
• FI selling is a cautionary factor; monitor foreign flows.
• No direct buy/sell/hold recommendations are given; viewers should conduct their own analysis.
• Always consider multi-year and multi-timeframe price action before trading.

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Disclaimers

Presenter Vijay Thakkar is a SEBI registered research analyst. No explicit buy/sell/hold recommendations are provided. Analysis is educational, focusing on chart reading, price action, volume, and sector trends. Viewers should perform their own due diligence before making investment decisions.

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Presenter

• Vijay Thakkar

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